【作者】 李娜；

【导师】 金浩；

【作者基本信息】 河北工业大学 ， 应用经济学， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 京津冀地区是我国经济发展的“增长极”,京津冀区域经济发展失衡,创新动力不足、环境恶化、资源匮乏等一系列问题制约着京津冀经济的发展,区域经济系统协同发展的目的就是要发展绿色科技带动GDP增长,以科技创新驱动经济发展。区域经济系统是一个由经济、社会、科技创新、资源环境等要素共同构成的复杂系统。基于上述背景,本文综合运用协同学、系统动力学、可持续发展等理论,对京津冀区域的协同发展情况及运行机理进行了研究,论文研究的主要内容分为四个部分:(1)分别从经济、科技、环境、社会等四个方面对京津冀动力要素进行分析;从要素集聚、产业集聚、科技创新等方面对京津冀协同发展的动力机制进行分析;(2)在自组织理论、协同学理论基础上,运用复合系统协同度模型,构建京津冀地区经济、科技、环境、社会评价指标体系,实证分析京津冀区域有序度及协同度的变化趋势并分析原因;(3)分析京津冀区域经济系统的运行机理,应用系统动力学理论与方法,构建经济、科技、环境、社会的系统动力模型,对该系统基本行为进行仿真及政策调控设计;(4)设计五种经济系统发展方案(经济发展型方案、科技发展型方案、环境发展型方案、经济科技协同发展型方案、经济环境协同发展型方案),通过对比不同方案下的发展情况,找出适合京津冀的发展路径。研究结果发现:(1)京津冀区际协同发展的动力机制在于要素集聚、产业集聚、科技创新等方面,第三产业产值、全社会固定资产投资、专利申请量、专利授权量为京津冀协同的主要动力要素;(2)京津冀的科技、经济、环境、社会四个子系统是相互制约、相互联系的,固定资产投资、教育投资、三废处理率等是制约区域经济系统协同发展的关键变量;(3)区域经济发展要统筹经济、科技、社会服务、环境,只有改变传统的经济发展模式,用绿色科技指导区域的发展,才能使区域经济、科技、社会、环境系统有机结合,实现区域资源的优化配置,最终使京津冀走向协同可持续发展道路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei region is "growth pole" in China’s economic development,but Jingjinji region is unbalanced in regional economic development.The shortage of Innovation,environment degradation,resource scarcity and other issues are restricting the economic development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.The purpose of the joint development of the regional economic system is to develop green technology-driven economic growth,promote economic development through technological innovation,and take into account the environment while developing the economy.Regional economic system is a complex system with characteristic self-organizing structure which constitutes of economic,social,technological innovation,resources,environment and other factors.Based on the above background,the paper uses synergetic theory,system dynamics and sustainable development theories and studies the collaborative development and co-operation mechanism of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei region,the main content of this paper is divided into four parts:(1)Analyze the dynamic elements of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei from four aspects namely economic,technological,environmental,social,and compare with the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta region;(2)Based on the self-organization theory and synergetic theory,build economic,technological,environmental and social evaluation system using the coordination degree model for complex system,and analyze the cause of the order degree and the synergetic degree of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.;(3)By analyzing the operating mechanism of Jing-Jin-Ji economic system,apply system dynamics theory and method to study regional economic,build the system dynamic model for economic,technology,environment and social,and in the end,simulate the system and design policies.The results show :(1)The dynamic mechanism for synergetic development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei region includes the agglomeration of element,agglomeration of industries,and technological innovation,the third industry output value,total fixed asset investment,patent applications,patents granted are the main driving force elements for the synergy of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei;(2)The four subsystem namely technological,economic,environmental,social are mutual restricted and contacted,fixed asset investment,investment in education,waste disposal rate are the key variable for the synergeticdevelopment of economic system.(3)Only change the traditional model of economic development,can we make regional economic,technological,social,environmental systems combine better,achieve optimal allocation of regional resources,finally,the collaborative development path of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei can be synergetic and sustainable.更多还原