【作者】 王雪；

【导师】 王向阳；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 工商管理， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 我国改革开放尤其是加入WTO以来,其依靠廉价而丰富的劳动力资源,逐步成为世界工厂,然而随着我国劳动力成本的不断提升,以及近期国际形势的变化,使得我国的制造业面临着从未有过的挑战,这也给了研究人力需求预测以最佳的时机。本文的研究对象F公司处于完全竞争的代工行业,在这个行业里成本管控成为赢得竞争的制胜法宝。而由于人工成本在其中的重要地位,如何做好人工成本管控成为大家研究的重点。而F公司就是以为顾客提供低成本的制造服务为战略目标的,这就使得人工成本管控在其中显得更加重要。本文特以随订单变化明显且影响较大的直接人力需求作为研究对象。通过对成本控制理论、工作分析以及工作研究等理论的研究,对原有进行直接人力需求预测的经验法(成本控制法)进行分析改进。分析直接人力需求与由订单数量转化的生产计划、标准总时间、工作小时数以及人员效率的关系,力求建立起一套在需要的时间提供所需数量的人员的模型,以此保证生产能正常进行且人力成本最低。在此过程中对订单分析过程中的生产计划确定流程予以优化,完善了标准工时系统,建立起新的管理指标(人员利用率)。以此为基础,串接现有系统,实现了以人力需求预测模型为基础的管理信息系统的构建,并通过评价体系,成本及人员利用率的比较,证明了较之原有成本控制法有显著的提高,实现了系统改进的目的,得到了一个可以及时提供直接人力需求,以便管理者参考的管理信息系统。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up,China has become a world factory with abundant and cheap labor resources,providing the world with high quality and low price products.However,with the continuous improvement of labor costs in our country and the recent changes in the international situation,China’s manufacturing industry is facing unprecedented challenges,which also gives the best time to study manpower demand forecasting.The thesis is focus on F company.Cost controlling becomes the vital weapon to win the competition in the perfectly competitive foundry market.Because of the important position of labor cost,how to do a good job of labor cost control has become the focus of everyone’s research.F company’s strategic goal is to provide customers with low-cost manufacturing services,which makes labor cost control more important.This thesis focuses on the direct labor who is mainly influenced by orders.Improve the original experience method(cost control method)by the research on the theory of lean production,cost control theory,work analysis and work research.And try to establish a model that provides the required number of people at the required time to ensure that production is working properly and labor costs are minimal through analyzing the relationship among the direct labor demand and the production plan converted by the order and standard time and working hours and labor efficiency.In this system,the production planning process in the order analysis process is optimized,the standard time system is improved,and new management indicators(personnel utilization)are established.The thesis realizes the construction of the management information system based on the human demand forecasting model.Comparing with the original cost control method,the cost and personnel utilization rate have been improved significantly.The management information system that can provide the demand of direct labor in time for managers’ reference.更多还原