【作者】 徐翔；

【导师】 魏峰；

【作者基本信息】 安徽大学 ， 数量经济学， 2019， 硕士

【副题名】基于KMV模型分析

【摘要】 2008年,为应对全球金融危机的冲击,中国开启了“四万亿”经济刺激计划。“四万亿”计划稳定了国内的经济增长,也给经济发展留下了隐患——政府债务规模的爆发增长。安徽作为长三角经济区后发展省份,近年来一直保持良好的经济增长势头,为带动地方经济发展做出了杰出的贡献。然而,伴随着经济增长的是地方政府债务规模的持续扩大,安徽省地方政府债务风险逐步显现,应当引起相关部门对政府债务的重视。对于政府债务的研究由来已久,早期的学者专注于政府债务的成因研究以及探讨政府债务与经济增长之间的关系;近年来,尤其是2008年以来,西方国家爆发的主权债务危机,使得学者认识到度量政府债务风险重要意义,并产生了丰硕的理论成果。但是多数研究是基于国家层面而言,鲜有对于局部地区(省、市地区)风险的探讨,基于此,开始本文的研究。本文从政府债务的基本概念出发,通过对于政府债务分类以及政府融资必要性的阐述,作为论文的理论基础;同时评估常用信用评价方法,选择KMV模型作为政府债务风险度量的主要方法。其次,开展对于安徽省政府债务的现状研究,从债务规模、增速、层级分布等多个角度研究了安徽省地方政府债务现状,指出存在的问题及风险隐患。接下来进入本文实证准备阶段,介绍KMV模型的理论基础以及参数设置,对于实证所要使用的面板回归模型的选择也做了必要的阐述,并以此为基础,开始实证研究。实证研究中,本文从地方财政收入和财政总收入,政府债务规模和限额口径出发,构建三种KMV模型对安徽省地方政府债务风险进行测度,以期从多角度对安徽省地方政府债务风险进行客观评价。研究结果显示,安徽省整体上没有债务违约风险,部分地区存在较为严重的债务风险,如亳州、宿州、池州等;在严格控制新增债务的前提下,随着时间推移,债务风险将显著降低。为有效控制安徽省地方政府债务风险,本文提出了控制好地方债务规模,用好债务存量以及平衡区域发展三点建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2008,in response to the impact of the global financial crisis,China launched the "four trillion" economic stimulus plan.The "four trillion" plan has stabilized domestic economic growth and left a hidden danger to economic development-the explosion of government debt has grown.As a post-development province of the Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone,Anhui has maintained a good economic growth momentum in recent years and has made outstanding contributions to the development of local economy.However,with the economic growth,the scale of local government debt continues to expand,and the local government debt risk in Anhui Province gradually emerges,which should cause the relevant departments to pay attention to.Research on government debt has been around for a long time.Early scholars focused on the study of the causes of government debt and explored the relationship between government debt and economic growth.In recent years,especially since 2008,the sovereign debt crisis erupted in Western countries has made scholars Recognizing the importance of measuring government debt risk and producing fruitful theoretical results.However,most studies are based on the national level,and there is little discussion about the risks of local areas(provincial and municipal areas).Based on this,the research in this paper is started.This paper starts from the basic concept of government debt,through the elaboration of the classification of government debt and the necessity of government financing,as the theoretical basis of the thesis;at the same time,it evaluates the commonly used credit evaluation methods and chooses the KMV model as the basis.Secondly,it conducts research on the current situation of government debt in Anhui Province,and studies the scale and management status of local government debt in Anhui Province from the perspectives of debt growth,hierarchical distribution and risk,pointing out the existing problems and potential risks.Next,we enter the empirical preparation stage,introduce the theoretical basis and parameter setting of the KMV model,and make necessary explanations for the selection of the panel regression model to be used in the empirical study.Based on this,we begin the empirical research.In the empirical research,this paper starts from the local fiscal revenue and total fiscal revenue,government debt scale and quota,and constructs three KMV models to measure the local government debt risk in Anhui Province,in order to objectively analyze the local government debt risk in Anhui from multiple angles.Evaluation.The research results show that there is no debt default risk in Anhui Province as a whole,and some areas have serious debt risks,such as Ganzhou,Suzhou,Chizhou,etc.;under the premise of strictly controlling new debts,debt risk will be significantly reduced over time.In order to effectively control the local government debt risk in Anhui Province,it is proposed to control the local debt scale,use the debt stock and balance regional development.更多还原