【作者】 王静；

【导师】 张谊浩；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 应用统计（专业学位）， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,随着我国经济的飞速发展,微观层面的家庭资产配置也发生了重大改变,投资方式以及如何实现资产的保值增值等课题受到学者们的广泛关注。其中家庭是否参与金融投资、参与风险市场的程度以及盈利水平的影响因素均是研究的重点。影响家庭进行金融投资的因素很多,国内外已有大量实证研究表明人口统计学特征、居民的财富情况、心理因素等对其有显著影响。本文主要研究的影响因素是互联网使用行为。风险金融资产如股票、基金等,存在进入门槛,投资风险资产所需的资金、信息成本较高,且要求投资者有较高的知识储备及金融素养。互联网的不断普及,搜索引擎的优化发展,电脑手机便携使用,都促进了信息成本的降低、社会互动的提高,从而提高了家庭风险市场的参与。本文使用两个指标来衡量网络的使用行为,一为是否使用网络,二为网络的使用强度(运用业余上网时长来度量)。探究网络使用行为行为对家庭风险性金融资产投资的影响,分别体现在三个方面:家庭是否参与金融投资、家庭对金融投资的参与程度(即风险资产占总金融资产的比重)、家庭参与金融投资的盈利情况。在具体研究中,本文使用了2016年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)的数据,对网络使用行为行为与家庭是否参与金融投资、家庭金融投资参与程度、家庭金融投资是否盈利进行统计分析。分别得出:使用网络的家庭中参与金融投资的家庭占比远远大于未使用网络的家庭,且随着网络使用行为强度的提高,参与金融投资的家庭占比也在逐渐提高;使用网络的家庭,中低参与程度的家庭占比更多,未使用网络的家庭中,三种参与程度家庭占比相似,且随着使用强度提高,低参与程度的家庭变化不大,中参与度的家庭占比逐渐提升,高参与度的家庭占比呈U型;未使用网络的家庭中,投资盈利的家庭占比稍大,随着网络使用行为强度的提升,投资盈利的家庭占比呈”驼峰”型,先增大后减少,在中高使用强度处达到最高。随后根据国内外文献总结了其他影响家庭金融投资的因素,并对该因素与家庭金融投资情况进行了统计分析。为进一步研究网络使用行为行为对家庭金融投资的影响,本文运用计量模型进行实证分析。将被解释变量分别设置为家庭是否参与金融投资、家庭参与金融投资的程度(风险资产占总金融资产的比例)、家庭参与金融投资的盈利情况。同时将网络使用行为行为作为重点研究的解释变量,并选取了家庭财务主管的年龄、性别、受教育程度以及家庭人口规模、婚姻情况、健康水平、收入水平、持有房产状况、社会互动水平作为其他控制变量。首先使用Probit模型探究网络使用行为行为对家庭是否参与金融投资的影响。其次,使用Tobit模型探究网络使用行为行为对家庭金融投资参与程度的影响。最后在确定没有样本偏差后,使用Probit模型探究网络使用行为行为对家庭金融投资是否盈利的影响。最后得到结论为:网络使用行为对家庭是否参与金融投资、参与程度均有显著的正向影响;对家庭金融投资的盈亏都有显著的负向影响。表明使用网络和使用网络强度越高的家庭,相较不使用网络和使用强度低的家庭,参与金融投资的可能性越高,且愿意更高比例地投资风险资产,参与程度的更深。同时,相比于使用网络和使用强度越高的家庭,不使用网络和使用强度低的家庭更可能在金融投资中盈利。且为了克服网络使用行为的内生性问题,将区县级平均上网概率作为是否使用网络的工具变量、将区县级平均在线时长作为网络使用行为强度的工具变量,估计的结论具有一致性。最后根据本文的实证结果,分别就政府以及投资者提出了建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,with the rapid development of China’s economy,micro-level household asset allocation has also experienced a significant change.The investment methods and the way to realize the preservation and appreciation of assets have attracted wide attention from scholars.In this subject,whether the family participates in risk market,the degree of participation in the risk market,and the factors affecting the profit level are the focus of the study.There are many factors affecting the way family participate risk investment,at the same time,there are a lot of empirical studies all around the world show that demographic characteristics,residents’ wealth and psychological factors have significant influences on them.The main influence factor on family participates in risk market this paper choose is the use of the Internet.Risk financial assets such as stocks and funds have thresholds for entry.On the one hand,capital and information costs required to invest in risky assets are high,on the other hand,investors are required to have higher knowledge reserves and financial literacy.The continuous popularization of the Internet,the optimization of search engines,and the portable use of computer phones have all contributed to the reduction of information costs and the improvement of social interactions,thereby increasing the participation of family risk markets.This article uses two indicators to measure the use of the Internet,one is whether to use the Internet,and the other is the intensity of the Internet(measured by the length of the amateur time use on Internet).There are three aspects respectively show how the Internet usage influence the household venture investment,whether the family participates in venture capital,the degree of participation of family venture capital(ie,the ratio of risk assets to total financial assets),and the profitability of family participation in venture capital.In the specific study,this paper uses the China Family Tracking Survey(CFPS)data to analyze the Internet usage and whether the family participates in venture capital,family venture capital participation,and family venture investment profitability.It is concluded that compared to the households which do not use the Internet,the proportion of households participating in venture capital in households using the Internet is much larger,at the same time,as the intensity of Internet use increases,the proportion of households participating in venture capital is gradually increasing;Among the households using the Internet,the proportion of households with median and low-level participation is more.In households that do not use the Internet,the proportion of households with high to low participation levels is similar.And with the increase of use intensity,the households with low risk investment participation are not changed obviously.The proportion of households with median degree is gradually increasing,and the proportion of households with high participation is U-shaped.In households that do not use the Internet,the proportion of households that make a profit is slightly larger.With the increase in the intensity of Internet use,the proportion of households that make a profit by investment is "hump" type,which increases first and then decreases,reaching at medium and high intensity.Then,according to the domestic and foreign literatures,other factors affecting family risk investment were summarized,and the factors and family risk investment were statistically analyzed.In order to make a further study on the impact of Internet usage on family risk financial investment,this paper uses the econometric model for empirical analysis.The explanatory variables are set to the extent to which the family participates in risk financial investment,the degree of family participation in risk financial investmen(ie,the ratio of risk assets to total financial assets),and the profitability of family participation in risk financial investment.At the same time,Internet usage is used as an explanatory variable for key research,and the age,gender,education level,family size,marital status,health level,income level,holding status of the property,and social interaction level of the family finance supervisor are selected as other controled variables.The first step,use the Probit model to explore the impact of Internet usage on whether households participate in risky financial investments.Second,use the Tobit model to explore the impact of Internet usage on the level of involvement of family risk financial investments.Finally,after determining that there is no sample bias,the Probit model is used to explore the impact of Internet usage on the profitability of family risk financial investments.Internet use has a significant positive impact on the likelihood and participation of family risk financial investment;it has a significant negative impact on the profit and loss of family risk financial investment.That is:households using the Internet and using the Internet with higher intensity are more likely to participate in venture financial investment than households that do not use the Internet and use low-intensity,and are willing to take a higher proportion of financial assets for venture financial investment.The degree is deeper.At the same time,households that do not use the Internet and use low intensity are more likely to make a profit in risky financial investments than households that use the Internet and use more intensity.In order to overcome the potential endogenous problems of Internet use,the average Internet access ratio at the district and county level is used as the instrumental variable of the Internet,and the average online time of the district and county level is used as the instrumental variable of the Internet use intensity.The estimated conclusions are consistent.Finally,based on the empirical results of this paper,the government and investors were proposed separately.更多还原