【作者】 王蕾；

【导师】 袁兢业； 董峻；

【作者基本信息】 广西大学 ， 工程硕士（专业学位）， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济超速发展及城市化加快进程,旧城改造行业在我国已成为重要的投资行业之一。随着市场的不断波动,国家政策的颁布,使旧城改造项目在实际的开发当中,面临很大的风险,如何保证利润增加的同时,降低经营风险是企业面临的最主要的问题。那么,适当地规避风险,合理地处置风险并对风险进行监控增强其抵御风险的能力是企业所要亟需解决的问题,上述所出现的问题已经得到了国内社会各界对项目风险管理的关注与重视。在实际项目进行过程中,如何将风险管理理论应用到实践中,以完整的风险管理体系指导项目进行风险管理是本文研究的主要内容。本文以FS火车站站区旧城改造项目为实际研究案例,详细阐述了与项目风险管理有关的定义与相关理论,借鉴前人的研究成果,采用核对表法对项目风险进行实施分析,层次分析法对项目风险进行评价,而后,根据项目风险评价结果,对项目风险采取有效的应对措施及风险监控。期望能够对项目风险进行控制,保障项目有序进行。本论文主要针对FS火车站站区旧城改造项目进行了如下研究,包括以下内容:第一,FS火车站站区旧城改造项目风险识别。采用表核对法对FS火车站站区旧城改造项目风险进行识别,并制定风险清单。该项目准则层风险主要包括财务风险、管理风险、技术风险、环境风险、建设风险等在内的五个风险,同时,针对准则层建立了相应的指标层风险,分别为:资金不足、利率变化、价格上涨、合同风险、组织机构不合理、管理制度不健全、人员流动、设计方案变更、施工索赔可能性、自然环境、政策环境、人文环境风险、质量风险、安全风险与进度风险。第二,FS火车站站区旧城改造项目潜在关键风险要素评估。根据所得到的风险识别结论,构建一套与FS火车站站区旧城改造项目相适应的风险评价指标体系,结合实际,运用相关的方法,诸如层次分析法(AHP),对相关指标的权重加以确定,最终确定为5个一级指标和15个二级指标的权重,且各指标均通过了一致性检验;然后,通过准则层与指标层权重相乘,得到二级权重,并且,以计算出各指标的综合权重代表各指标层相对于目标层的风险度。最终得出建设风险发生的概率最大(安全风险为0.2493),其次是技术风险,环境风险概率最低。第三,FS火车站站区旧城改造项目潜在关键风险要素的管控。根据风险评价结果,有针对性的对FS火车站站区旧城改造项目制定关键风险要素的管控措施。同时,为了保证及时掌握风险动态及风险应对措施的效果,对FS火车站站区旧城改造项目建立风险管控保障体系。建设风险综合权重值最大,需要重点进行防护,采取有效措施,保证风险处于可接受水平。对于综合权重值较小的风险,也不可忽视,置之不理。本文通过多种方法结合使用,对FS火车站站区旧城改造项目进行风险识别、评价及监控,旨在降低项目风险,规避不必要的损失,确保项目顺利实施。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of the economy and the acceleration of urbanization,the construction industry has become one of the important investment industries in China.With the constant fluctuation of the market and the promulgation of national policies,construction projects are faced with great risks in the actual development.How to ensure the increase of profits while reducing business risks is the most important issue facing companies.Therefore,the ability to properly avoid risks,reasonably handle risks and monitor risks to enhance their ability to withstand risks is an urgent problem that companies need to solve,and these issues have aroused concern for project risk management in China.In the specific project implementation process,how to apply the risk management theory to practice and guide the project with a complete risk management system for risk management is the main content of this paper.This article takes the old urban transformation project of FS railway station station area as the research object,describes the relevant concepts and theories of project risk management in detail,draws on previous research results,uses the table verification method to implement the project risk implementation,and analyzes the level.Evaluate project risks,and then,according to project risk assessment results,take effective response measures and risk monitoring on project risks.It is expected that the project risk can be controlled and the project can be carried out in an orderly manner.This dissertation focuses on the following researches on the old city reconstruction project of the FS railway station station area,including the following:First.Risk Identification of Old City Reconstruction Projects in FS Station Station Area.The table verification method was used to identify the risk of the old city renovation project in the FS station station area,and a risk list was developed.The project standard level risk mainly includes five risks,including financial risk,management risk,technical risk,environmental risk and construction risk.At the same time,corresponding indicator level risks have been established for the criterion level,namely:insufficient funds,changes in interest rates,rising raw material prices,and contracts risks,unreasonable organizational structure,unsound management system,staff turnover,design changes,construction claims risks,natural environment,policy environmental,human environment risk,quality risks,safety risks,and schedule risks.Second.Assessment of potential key risk factors of old city renovation project in FS railway station.According to the results of risk identification,the risk assessment index system for the old city reconstruction project of the FS railway station station area was established.Using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method,the weights of the five first-level indicators and 15 second-level indicators were determined,and all the indicators passed the consistency check;then,they were multiplied by the weights of the criterion level and the indicator level.The second-level weight is obtained,and the comprehensive weight of each index is calculated to represent the degree of risk of each index layer relative to the target layer.Finally,the maximum probability of occurrence of construction risk is 0.2493,followed by technical risk,and the probability of environmental risk is the lowest.Third.Management and control of potential key risk factors of old city reconstruction project of FS railway station.According to the results of risk assessment,targeted management and control measures of key risk factors are formulated for the old city reconstruction project of FS railway station.At the same time,in order to ensure the timely grasp of risk dynamics and the effect of risk response measures,the risk management and control guarantee system is established for the old city reconstruction project of FS railway station.The comprehensive weight value of construction risk is the largest,and it is necessary to focus on protection and take effective measures to ensure that the risk is at an acceptable level.The risk of a smaller comprehensive weight value cannot be ignored and ignored.This article uses a combination of methods to identify,assess,and monitor risks in the old city reconstruction project at the FS station station.It aims to reduce project risks,avoid unnecessary losses,and ensure the smooth implementation of the project.更多还原