【作者】 王娟；

【导师】 黄河；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济全球化的不断发展,跨国企业的采购活动面临着越来越多的风险。其中,汇率的波动、原材料成本的波动以及市场需求的不确定都可能给企业带来损失,如何运用各种风险应对工具来降低这些风险具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文以下游零售商向上游制造商采购为背景,从汇率波动及市场风险并存的角度入手,结合期货这种风险应对工具,进行批发价采购合同的研究。第三章假定制造商面临汇率风险和原材料价格风险,零售商面临需求风险,且三种风险互相独立,双方签订批发价合同,制造商购买期货用以对冲汇率风险。考察零售商的采购决策和制造商的供货决策,以及三种风险分别对供应链的影响。结果表明购买期货的对冲策略提高了制造商的供货量,拦截了汇率风险对制造商和零售商的决策变量的影响,从而使得零售商的盈利水平更加稳定,抗风险能力得以提高,因此认为期货与批发价合同的联合运用是一种有效的风险管理方法。第四章假定制造商面临汇率风险和原材料价格风险,且二者相关,双方签订批发价合同,制造商购买期货用以对冲汇率风险,考察零售商的采购决策和制造商的供货决策,以及汇率风险和原材料价格风险对供应链的影响。结果表明当汇率风险与原材料价格风险的正相关时,购买期货的对冲策略的效果要好于二者不相关的情况,进一步提高了制造商的供货量,降低了零售商给出的批发价。第五章假定制造商面临汇率风险与原材料价格风险,且二者独立,零售商还可以选择从现货市场进货,双方签订批发价激励合同,制造商购买期货用以对冲汇率风险。考察零售商的采购决策和制造商的供货决策,以及汇率风险和原材料价格风险对供应链的影响。研究表明与运用批发价合同相比,批发价激励合同提高了汇率对冲比例,降低了交易价格。提高了零售商的利润,降低了制造商的收益和收益方差以及整条供应链的风险。现货市场的存在不会影响零售商的汇率对冲激励程度的选择,现货市场产品价格对于制造商产量的敏感性越强,零售商给出的批发价越高,零售商和制造商的利润越高。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of economic globalization,the purchasing activities of transnational enterprises are facing more and more risks.Among them,the exchange rate fluctuation,the fluctuation of the cost of raw materials and market demand uncertainty is likely to bring losses,how to use all kinds of risk response tool to reduce these risks is of important theoretical and realistic significance.Based on the downstream retailers to upstream manufacturers as the background,from the perspective of exchange rate volatility and market risks,combined with the futures that risk coping tools,wholesale purchasing contract research.Third chapter assumes that manufacturers face price risk,exchange rate risk and raw materials demand risk faced by retailers,and three kinds of risk independent each other,the two sides signed the wholesale price contract,manufacturers use futures to hedge currency risk.Examine the retailer’s purchasing decisions and the manufacturer’s supply decisions,and the impact of the three risks on the supply chain.Results show that the proposed strategy improves the distribution of manufacturers,intercepting the exchange rate risk’s influence on the decision variables of manufacturers and retailers,it is proposed that the wholesale price contract,futures,and combination is an effective method of risk management.Fourth Chapter assumes that manufacturers face price risk,exchange rate risk and raw materials and the related,the two sides signed the wholesale price contract,manufacturers use futures to hedge currency risk,investigate retailers purchase decisions and the supply of manufacturers,as well as the exchange rate risk and raw material prices to the influence of supply chain risk.Results show that when the exchange rate risk and the risk of price of raw materials in the positive correlation,use the effect of exchange rate hedging strategies are better than the two unrelated situation,to further improve the manufacturer’s output,reduced the retailers are given the wholesale price.Fifth chapter assumes that manufacturers face the exchange rate risk and raw material prices two types of risk,and the two independent,retailers can also choose to buy from the spot market,the two sides signed a wholesale price incentive contract,manufacturers use futures to hedge currency risk.Examine the retailers’ purchasing decisions and manufacturers’ supply decisions,as well as the impact of exchange rate risk and raw material price risk on the supply chain.The research shows that the wholesale price incentive contract increases the exchange rate hedging ratio and reduces the transaction price compared with the wholesale price contract.Increased profitability for retailers reduces manufacturers’ earnings and earnings variance and the risk of the entire supply chain.The existence of the spot market will not affect the degree of currency hedge incentive retailers,the choice of the spot market price for the sensitivity of the manufacturer production the stronger,retailers are given the wholesale price is higher,the higher the profits of retailers and manufacturers.更多还原