【作者】 陈峰；

【导师】 向小东；

【作者基本信息】 福州大学 ， 系统分析与决策（专业学位）， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 福建省普通公路从20世纪80年代开始到现在大约经历了 30年的建设,路网已经基本形成,公路交通发展进入建设与养护并重阶段。养护里程日益增长,对养护资金的需求快速上升,如何利用有限的资金对公路进行及时、有效的养护,保证路网路况均衡发展已成为养护管理决策上亟待解决的问题。长期以来福建省执行的省市固定切块分成的养护资金分配方法,随着路网规模、结构的变化,以及行业发展,国家政策调整等内外部环境的转变,现行的资金分配办法出现了一些不适应性和问题,已经不能适应时代发展的要求。因此需要对原资金分配方案进行深入分析,在找出存在问题的基础上,通过对各地市的养护资金需求量进行科学测算,以此为依据制定出可测算、可评价、可调整的科学分配方案,进一步提高资金的使用效率和降低普通公路养护管理成本。养护资金需求量预测及分配方案评价是本文研究的重点内容。首先运用现代管理学及统计学理论,分析现行福建省普通公路养护资金分配方案存在的问题,将养护资金按使用性质分为小修保养及大中修工程两大部分,确定养护资金需求量测算公式。然后建立多元线性回归预测模型,实现对每公里小修保养单价合理预测以此测算小修保养费用;接下来,建立支持向量机(SVM)分类预测模型实现对需实施大中修工程路段的预测,得出大中修工程路段里程数;建立支持向量机(SVM)回归预测模型实现对每公里大中修工程单价预测,将模型预测值代入养护资金测算公式,计算各地市养护资金需用量,以此提出新的养护资金分配方案。为评估资金分配方案的合理性,在确定分配方案评价维度及指标后,采用层次分析法(AHP)方法确定各指标权重值,依据指标体系对新、旧养护资金分配方案进行综合评价,从而有针对性的提出福建省普通公路路网养护资金分配策略及建议。最后指出了本研究的不足及后续研究的方向。通过本研究可以解决以下关键问题:使养护资金更科学、合理的分配,避免资金“重复分配”或者“过分配”的发生,提高养护资金的使用效率,从而达到在有限养护资金投入条件下全省路网路况总体保持优良的目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 It has been about 30 years for the construction of highway in Fujian Province since the beginning of the 1980s.Currently the road network has been basically formed,and highway development has entered the phase of both construction and maintenance of equal importance.The mileage for maintenance is growing,thus rapidly rising demand for maintenance funding.It has been a problem demanding prompt solution how to use the limited funding for timely and effective maintenance of highway and to ensure the balance of the whole road network at management decision-making level.For a long time,Fujian province has executed fixed funding allocation among the cities.With the transformation of the general road network scale and structure,development of the industry,adjustment of national policy and other changes of external environment,the current allocation of funds appeared some inadaptability and problems,failing to meet the requirements of era development.Therefore,it is required to identify existing problems by deeply analyzing the original allocation of funds so as to estimate the funds of maintenance allocated to cities for building a set of scientific allocation scheme for calculation,evaluation and adjustment to further improve capital efficiency and to reduce the cost of general road maintenance management.The prediction of the demand for maintenance funding and the evaluation on funding allocation are the essential content of the paper.Firstly,the theory of modern management and statistics are applied in analyzing the existing problem of the current funding allocation scheme.According to the usage properties,the funding are subdivided into the periodical minor maintenance and the heavy and intermediate maintenance of two parts,and then a new maintenance funding formula is given.Secondly,the multivariate linear regression prediction model is constructed to forecast the per kilometer price of minor maintenance,the Support Vector Machine(SVM)division prediction model is constructed to forecast the engineering quantity of the heavy and intermediate maintenance,the Support Vector Machine(SVM)regression prediction model is constructed to forecast the per kilometer price of the heavy and intermediate maintenance;according to the prediction value and maintenance funding formula,the value of highway maintenance funds is reached.In order to evaluate the rationality of allocation scheme,after determining the evaluation dimensions and indicators of the funding allocation scheme,AHP method is used to determine the weight coefficient of each index.According to the Evaluation System,the effectiveness of the new and old funding allocation is evaluated.Ultimately some improvement strategies and suggestions about Fujian Province highway maintenance are putted forward,the shortcomings of the study and the further endeavors also is pointed out.Through the above studies,the following key issues may address:A more reasonable funding allocation scheme is established to avoid the funds from "duplicate assignment" or "over-allocation",promoting the utilization efficiency of maintenance capital.The goal of the road state maintaining in a good state with the limited funding investment is attained.更多还原