【作者】 刘阳；

【导师】 杨少华；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 国际商务， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 澳门博彩业发展历史悠久,在澳门的经济体系中,博彩业占据重要位置,已成为支柱产业,以其强势的发展劲头带动酒店业、旅游业的发展。但是随着近年来澳门博彩业的下滑,澳门经济结构的不合理性也在渐渐体现出来。澳门特区政府也十分注重其经济结构的调整和发展方式的转型,澳门地区面积狭小,主要产业以服务业为主。会展业以其成本小、效益高、与其他产业紧密联系的特点成为澳门进行产业转型的方向性选择。本文建立了衡量澳门会展业发展水平的评价指标体系并测算了澳门会展业发展水平指数,收集了澳门2007—2016会展业及相关产业指标数据,运用经典回归模型和格兰杰因果检验,实证检验了澳门会展业对相关产业的带动效应。基于此,本文运用指数曲线法与灰色预测法对澳门会展业未来十年增加值进行预测与对比分析。结果显示,澳门会展业对旅游业、酒店业、零售业、交通运输业等相关产业发展具有明显带动效应,促进区域经济繁荣,从而提出进一步发展会展业的相关政策建议。在策略上,首先,澳门发展会展业应注意加强会展相关基础设施建设;第二,在发展会展业的同时也要注意与其他产业协调发展,协同会展业与酒店业、旅游业等行业共同发展,互利共赢;在政策上,澳门政府应当加强产业投资优惠政策、主导产业发展政策上的支持。本研究为澳门发展会展业成为主导产业,带动区域经济发展提供参考建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Macao gambling industry has a long history of development,in the Macao economic system,the gaming industry has become a pillar industry.With its strong momentum of development,the gambling industry has led the hotel industry,tourism development to grow stronger.However,with the decline in the gaming industry in Macao in recent years,the irrationality of its economic structure is gradually reflected.Macao’s government also attaches great importance to the adjustment of its economic structure and the transformation of the mode of economic development.Macao’s area is small,the majority of its industries are tertiary industries.Exhibition industry with its small cost,high efficiency and close link to other industries,has become the direction choice of Macao’s industrial transformation.This paper establishes the evaluation index system which measures the degree of development of the exhibition industry in Macao and analyzes the relevant factors that affect the development of the exhibition industry in Macao.By using the relevant indicators data of Macao exhibition industry during the year of 2007 to 2016,through the cointegration analysis and the Granger causality test method,we proved the effect of the Macau exhibition industry on other industries and measured the influence of the exhibition industry in Macau coefficient.Based on this,this paper uses the exponential curve method and gray forecast method to forecast the added value of Macao exhibition industry in the next ten years.The results show that the Macau exhibition industry not only has a leading effect on the tourism industry,the hotel industry and the retail industry,but also has important stimulating effect and economic effect on other related industries.Based on this we put forward several relevant policy suggestions for further development of the exhibition industry.Firstly,the development of the exhibition industry in Macao should strengthen the construction of exhibition facilities.Secondly,the government should also pay attention to the coordinated development of other industries such as the hotel industry,tourism during the development of the exhibition industry for mutual benefit.In terms of policy,the Macao government should strengthen support for industrial investment preferential policies and leading industrial development policies.更多还原