【作者】 张蕾；

【导师】 张靠社； 张刚；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 由于风电本身具有的波动性、间歇性,导致其难以预测和控制,易对电网造成冲击,是造成弃风量大问题主要原因之一。将风电与水电捆绑实现水电风电联合调度,是解决这一问题的有效途径。但在传统的水电风电联合调度模型中,基于单值预测的水电风电联合调度模型无法适应多变条件,调度效果与预期偏差很大,缺乏实用性。因此,提高风电预测准确度,充分考虑风功率预测的不确定性,并将其融入调度模型中,对提高水电风电联合调度运行方案可行性至关重要。本文首先介绍了我国及世界风电发展现状,对风功率预测及水电风电联合调度的研究现状进行了总结,并针对其中存在的缺陷及问题进行分析,提出了本文的研究技术路线。其次,针对传统风功率单值预测方法对风电不确定性估计不足的缺陷,建立了基于Copula函数的风功率区间预测模型,采用陕北某风电场的风功率数据进行模型的训练和验证,结果表明92%的真实值均落在所得的风功率区间内,取得了很好的预测效果。然后,针对传统水电风电联合调度模型在实际调度中缺乏适用性的问题,建立了考虑风功率预测不确定性的水电风电联合调度模型。模型采用免疫克隆选择算法(ICSA)进行求解,将风功率预测区间与水电风电联合调度相结合,在各时段的风功率预测区间中随机抽取100组风功率序列来模拟风功率的不确定性,代入以水电风电联合调度运行出力曲线波动最小为目标的调度模型,即可生成水电风电联合调度运行区间。最后,采用实例进行调度模型仿真验证,分别代入不同置信度水平下的风功率预测区间,结果表明:各置信水平下都可获得较为稳定的水电风电联合调度运行区间,并可给出较明确的区间上下限。也就是说,将具有不确定性的风电输出功率转换为了具有稳定和确定区间的水电风电联合调度运行区间,大大提高了调度决策可行度,保障电网安全稳定运行。更多还原

【Abstract】 Because of the fluctuation and intermittence of wind power itself,it is difficult to predict and control the wind power.It is easy to impact the power grid,which is one of the main causes of the large amount of abandoned wind energy.While the combination of wind power and hydropower is an effective way to solve the problems.However,in the traditional combined dispatching of hydropower and wind power,the combined dispatching model based on single value prediction can not be adapt to the changeable conditions,and the dispatching result can hardly satisfied the expected deviation and lack practicality.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the accuracy of wind power prediction,take full account of the uncertainty of wind power prediction and integrate it into the dispatching model,which is very important to improve the feasibility of the combined dispatching scheme of wind power and hydropower.This paper firstly introduced the currently development situation of the wind power in China and the whole world,summarizes the research status of wind power prediction and combined dispatching of wind power and hydropower,and then analyzes the defects and problems in these studies,and puts forward the research technical route of this paper.Secondly,due to the lack of consideration of the wind power uncertain,ty in the traditional wind power single value prediction method,the wind power interval prediction model based on Copula ffunction is established in this paper.The model is trained and verified by wind power data which have been obtained from a wind form in Northern Shaanxi.The results show that 92 percent of the true values are all falling into the obtained wind power interval,which means that excellent prediction effect have been achieved.After that,in view of the lack of applicability of the traditional hydropower and wind power combined dispatching model in the actual dispatching,a combined dispatching model of hydropower and wind power considering the uncertainty of wind power prediction is established in this paper.The model is solved by the Immune Clonal Selection Algorithm(ICSA).The wind power prediction interval is combined with the combined dispatching of hydropower and wind power,in which 100 sets of wind power sequences are randomly selected from the wind power prediction interval of each period to simulate the uncertainty of wind power output,and they will be substituted into the dispatching model.The objective function of the model is minimizing the fluctuation of the power output curve of the combined dispatching operation,then the combined dispatching operation interval of hydropower and wind power can be generated.Finally,an example is used to simulate and validate the dispatching model,and the wind power prediction interval under different confidence degree is substituted into the model.The results show that the more stable operation interval of the hydropower wind power combined dispatching can be obtained,and a clearer upper and lower limit of the interval can be given.That is to say,the wind power output with uncertainty is converted to the combined operation interval of hydropower wind power with stable and definite interval,which greatly improves the feasibility of dispatching decision and ensures the safe and stable operation of the power grid.更多还原