【作者】 徐萌；

【导师】 王新军；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 保险学， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 人口老龄化已经成为全世界关注的热点,《世界人口展望》预测2050年老年人将占世界人口到15.8%,其中中国的老龄化尤为严峻,届时65岁及以上老年人将占总人口到26.5%。截止到2016年,我国老年人口到达15003万,占总人口的10.8%,老年人口抚养比也到达了 15%。中国老龄化面临的最大问题在于未富先老和未备先老,我国人均国民生产总值仍未达到发达国家水平,虽然我国建立了多种养老保险金制度,但是养老基金地区分布不平衡,且抚养比升高,养老金的长期平衡面临很大挑战;此外我国养老产业和护理行业发展缓慢,难以承受巨大的护理需求。2016年底,我国养老机构总数约28000间,其中共有床位数358万,而每千人口卫生护理人员仅为6人。《“十三五”国家老龄事业发展和养老体系建设规划》预测,中国60岁以上老年人数量在2020年将突破2.55亿,约占总人口的17.8%。基于此,我国积极推动养老保险制度改革和长期护理保险试点,如何普及长期护理保险,加快长期护理保险市场发展就至关重要。因此本文将理论分析与定量实证相结合,研究我国长期护理保险需求的影响因素。本文首先从国外(美国、日本)长期护理保险制度入手,分析其制度体系,借鉴经验指导我国长期护理制度的发展。一方面既要不断完善我国保障体系,建立社会长期护理保险制度;另一方面要促进商业长期护理保险的发展,分散风险,减轻政府财政负担。基于此,本文通过理论与实证分析研究我国商业长期护理保险的影响因素。我国在长期护理保险方面的影响因素研究中数据多来自于问卷调查,本文选用了统计年鉴中的数据从宏观层面进行分析。在分析过程中,文章实证部分首先将城镇地区和农村地区分开来考虑,以往研究中关于城镇和农村的对比研究都是截面数据,本文采用了 2010年到2016年的面板数据进行分析。分析结果显示对于城镇居民:(1)地区生产总值对于长期护理保险需求有显著影响;(2)社会保障保险有显著替代效应,健康险和因变量之间显著相关,但是并没有替代效用;(3)人文因素如教育程度和家庭规模对于城镇人口的长期护理保险需求影响显著。在农村地区结果稍有不同:(1)经济因素中地区生产总值对于长期护理保险需求有显著影响;(2)社会养老保险和健康险的替代效用显著;(3)人口因素如性别比例和老年人口抚养比对于长期护理保险的购买意愿有显著影响。得到了以上结果后,本文又考虑到地区差异,将城镇划分为东部和中西部进行对比研究。研究发现,东部地区的实证结果比中西部地区结果更加显著,这可能是由于中西部地区长期护理保险渗透范围比较窄,经济水平难以支付保险费用,因此数据缺失,且存在极端值,导致回归结果不显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 The ageing population is receiving significant attention from both academic researchers and policy makers.As the World Population Prospect 2017 shows,the percentage of the senior citizen(age 65 and above)of the world is projected to rise from 6.9%in 2000 to 15.8%in 2050,which approximately reach to 1,546,066 thousand population.As the most populous country-China,is ageing so rapidly that by 2050,there may be 26.3%senior citizen of the total population compared with only 6.3%in 2000,which means that there will be one senior citizen for every four people in China at that time.By 2016,there are over 150 billion elderly people in China,accounting 10.8%of the total population.What matters most is that China gets old before it gets rich and prepares,that the per-capital GDP does not reach the level of the developed country.As long as China has refined the existing pension system,there are imbalances of the pension program over different districts and shortage capital in the long term.Besides,the aged service industry and health care industry develop slowly,which could not meet the need of the aged population in China.There are only 28000 nursing homes in 2016,which supply 3.58 billion rehabilitation nursing bed in total.It is predicted that there will be 255 billion elderly people in China in 2020,which will account 17.8%of the total population.What’s more,the population of the elderly living alone will increase to 118 billion.As the baby-boom generation approaches retirement and the increasing fiscal pressure,concerns about long-term care are increasingly heated in the recent years.Private long-term care insurance focuses on covering the expenditure of service of long-term care,which plays an important role in sharing the burden of supporting the elderly and guaranteeing the later life for the aged.In older to solve the increasing nursing need of the old,China is pushing the pilot project of long term care insurance over 15 districts.We start our research on analyzing the systems of long-term care in abroad,especially in the USA and Japan.The advanced successful experience of long-term care insurance system shows that the government should combine the social pension system with private long-term care insurance market.Having figured out the urgent challenge of supporting the elderly,we stress emphasis on the factors influencing the long-term care insurance market in China.Owing to the lack of data in the individual level,I use the data from the China Statistic Yearbook(the data of which is accessible to the public)from 2010to 2016 to measure the factors on a macro level.The factors are classified as economic factors,social factors and public insurance crowd-out.The dependent variable in this dissertation is the income of nursing institution。The paper focus on two parts:in the first part we divide the data into urban level and rural level;and in the second part we estimate the models separately over eastern and western regions.The results of the urban model show that:(1)the economic factors have significant effect on the dependent variable;(2)the social insurance has significant crowd-out effect over the long-term care insurance,while health insurance do not;(3)the social factors(like family structure and education level)show significant effect on the model.The results of the rural model show that:(1)the economic factors affect the model significantly;(2)the social insurance and health insurance have significant crowd-out effect on the long-term care insurance;(3)the support rate and sex ratio are significantly affect the model.In terms of the regional differences,the results show that the factors have more significant influence on the dependent variable in the model of eastern area than in the other areas.更多还原