【作者】 于洋；

【导师】 范中洲；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 航海科学与技术， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 成山角水域船舶分道通航制迄今为止是中国唯一经国际海事组织(International Maritime Organization,IMO)通过并备案的分道通航制。该水域也因为船舶交通流汇聚及渔季渔船密集成为事故高发水域。为减少水域内船舶发生碰撞危险的几率以及进一步降低船舶污染事故的发生,中国海事局、山东海事局先后组织开展了调查、研究和评估等相关工作,2014年6月中国政府向国际海事组织的航行、通讯和搜救分委会提出了关于修订成山角水域船舶定线制和船舶报告制的提案,同年11月,经国际海事组织海上安全委员会第94次会议审议通过。于2015年6月1日起正式实施。本文对修订前后成山角水域船舶交通流等信息进行了跟踪调查和数据收集,将收集到的交通流、船舶类型、船速等信息按照直线航路和交叉航路进行分类,纵向对比,同时将收集到的事故数据按照现有的事故等级标准进行量化,建立事故后果评价指标体系,通过支持向量机、IWRAP算法及布朗运动等数学方法建立水域风险预测模型,同时对修订后一年内的数据样本进行数据检验,对比分析,旨在得出修订前后成山角水域外分道通航制内船舶的碰撞风险变化量,及影响碰撞风险的变化指标。在此基础上综合分析碰撞概率和碰撞后果的量化结果,得出成山角水域外分道通航制修订前后整体碰撞风险在不同航路段的变化量,从而对修订后的外分道通航制水域内的船舶碰撞风险进行定量的评价。本文中基于支持向量机的碰撞后果的估算,以及基于布朗运动的单体船碰撞风险的算例对于评价船舶碰撞风险具有一定的参考和借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The TSS(traffic saperation scheme)of Chengshanjiao promontory waters is the only one which record by IMO(International Maritime Organization)in China.This waters also became a high accident area because of the crossing traffic flows and massive fishing vessels during the fishing season.In order to reduce the probability of ship collision risk and prevent ship from the pollution accidents,MSA(Maritime Safety Administration)of China and MSA of Shandong have organized some investigation,research and evaluation about this waters.In June 2014,The govement of China had proposed a draft about amend of the TSS of Chen shan jiao waters and ship report scheme to the Sub-Committee on navigation,communications and search and rescue of IMO.And this amend was officially implemented in June 1st 2015.This paper involves tracing and collecting the information of ship traffic flow before and after the amend in Chenshanjiao promontory waters,and catalogues the collection data by straight and crossing channel,longitudinal contrast and quantificate the accident data by current standard accident grade,established the evaluation index system of the accident consequence,and set up predict model of waters by SVM(support vector mechine),IWRAP and Brown movement.And testify the data sample of the amend in 1 year,comparative analysis,in order to get variable quantity of ship collision risk in Chenshanjiao TSS after amend and variable parameter that influent the risk.Based on this,comprehensively analysis the quantitative results of collision probability and collision consequences,get variable quantity of TSS before and after amend in Chenshanjiao promontory waters in defferent channel part,and give a quantitative evaluation about TSS collision risk after amend.In this paper,the collision consequence estimate based on SVM and single ship collision risk estimate based on Brown movement have some value for reference in evaluate ship collision risk area.更多还原