【作者】 刘猛；

【导师】 陈菁泉；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 能源是一国经济发展的动力,特别是石油资源已经成为人类社会赖以生存的物质基础,直接影响到国家的安全和可持续发展。随着中国经济的快速发展,对石油的需求量越来越大,而且还会保持持续的刚性增长。我国的石油进口主要是来自于中东地区,但是中东地区政治局势的不稳定对我国石油的供应造成了巨大的负面影响,开拓稳定、安全的石油进口渠道,保障石油资源的供给安全,已成为中国亟需解决的现实问题。而俄罗斯作为世界上主要的石油生产和出口大国,其巨大的石油生产与出口能力,使其在国际能源市场上的地位越来越重要。而且俄罗斯的经济高度依赖其石油出口,石油的出口对俄罗斯带来的不仅仅是经济利益,很可能成为其实现强国地位的理想工具。但是俄罗斯的主要石油贸易伙伴是欧洲各国,国际形势的变化又经常使俄罗斯在对欧洲的石油贸易中陷入被动的局面从而制约其经济的发展。寻找多元化的石油贸易对象是俄罗斯面临的重要问题。俄罗斯与中国分别作为世界上具有重要地位的能源生产大国和消费大国,各自面临严峻的能源安全问题。中俄两国在地理位置方面有着明显的优势,4300多公里的边境线在交通运输方面为两国的石油贸易提供了方便;两国的政治关系不断发展加之两国领导人的不断互动,为两国的石油贸易打下了坚实的政治基础;在经济方面,石油资源的互补性和经济利益的互动性也为两国的石油贸易构成了现实基础。最为重要的是俄罗斯在石油出口对象上也面临着多元化的问题,因此中俄两国进行石油贸易有利于两国“双赢”局面的实现。而且当前的国际环境也为中俄两国石油贸易的开展提供了最有力的时机,两国政府会在各自国家安全的目标之下,通过中俄石油贸易实现各自的战略目标。双方政府需要运用战略管理思维制定和实施石油贸易战略从而实现各自的利益。然而从过去二十年中俄石油贸易的发展历程来看,虽然也取得了一定的成就,但是并不顺利。中国与俄罗斯之间石油贸易受阻,既有俄罗斯的原因,当然也有我国自身的原因,必须从多角度来考虑这个问题才能够提出相应的解决对策及建议,为相关部门制定政策和计划提供相应的理论依据。本文主要采用文献资料收集法、归纳总结法、演化博弈计算的方法进行研究。首先对中俄石油贸易的历程及取得的成就和贸易过程中存在的问题因素进行了回顾,又以演化博弈论模型为工具对中俄两国开展石油贸易的战略做出了分析。对于博弈论,本文主要是采用演化博弈模型,将经济利益与国家安全利益以及双方在石油贸易过程中为达成合作付出的成本结合起来,通过期望效用函数和演化博弈模型的计算得出中俄双方在石油贸易过程中的动态演化路径,并由其动态演化过程对中俄石油贸易的条件和战略进行了具体的分析。而且根据国际能源贸易的战略模式选择对中俄石油贸易的战略模式进行了探讨。使用演化博弈模型进行分析是本文的一个创新点,避免了传统的通过大量数据的查询进行分析从而得出结论的方法。但是由于专业领域所限,以及本人对中俄石油贸易的具体情况了解不足,必然会造成文章的部分分析较为片面短浅,缺乏长远性、全局性。不能对中俄石油贸易过程当中存在的问题做出全面的、深刻的、具有一定理论高度的分析。这些认识到的不足也会在以后的学习和研究中进行改进。中俄两国的石油贸易,虽然出发点不同,但在利益方面却是互补的,一定条件下的合作在利益互补的基础上是可以发展起来的。中俄石油贸易的前景是乐观的,地缘优势、良好的政治历史基础以及共同的经济利益推动着中俄石油贸易的发展。通过博弈分析说明了中俄石油贸易的战略模式选择。最后根据中俄石油贸易过程中存在的问题提出相应的政策建议:加强两国的政治互信建设、促进石油议价机制的完善、寻求与日本韩国消除矛盾建立东北亚区域能源合作机制等,以此来推动中俄石油贸易向更好更深层次的发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy is the driving force of a country’s economic development,especially petroleum resources have become the material basis for the survival of human society,which directly affects the security and sustainable development of a country.With the rapid development of China’s economy,the demand for petroleum is increasing,and it will keep a rigidly growth.China’s petroleum imports mainly from the Middle East,but the political situation in the Middle East has a huge negative impact on the supply of petroleum.Explore a stable and safe petroleum import channel,to ensure the security of petroleum resources and the sustainable and healthy development of China’s economy,has become a practical problem to be solved urgently in China.And Russia is one of the world’s major petroleum producing and exporting countries,due to its huge energy production and export capacity in the international energy market is becoming more and more important.And Russia’s economy is heavily dependent on its petroleum exports.For Russia,the export of petroleum resources is not only economic benefits,but also very likely to become an ideal tool to achieve the status of power.However,Russia’s major petroleum trading partners are Europe,and the changes in the international situation often make Russia into a passive situation in Europe’s petroleum trade,thus restricting its economic development.Looking for diversified petroleum trading partners is an important problem for Russia.Russia and China are the world’s most important energy producing and consuming countries,and they are faced with serious energy security issues.China and Russia have obvious advantages in geographical position,they have more than 4300 km border line,the proximity of the geographical position provides convenience for the petroleum trade between the two countries;and the continuous development of the political relations between the two countries and the interaction between the two leaders,provide a solid foundation for the petroleum trade;On the economy side,the complementary of petroleum resources and the interaction of economic benefits also constitute a realistic basis for the petroleum trade between the two countries.The most important is that the Russian petroleum exports to the object is also facing a variety of problems.Therefore,the petroleum trade between China and Russia is conducive to the realization of the "win-win" situation of the two countries.And the current international environment is providing a most powerful opportunity for the development of Sino-Russian petroleum trade.The two governments will be achieve their strategic objectives under their respective national security objectives,through Sino-Russian petroleum trade.Both governments need to use strategic management thinking to develop and implement petroleum trade cooperation strategy in order to achieve their respective interests.However,from the course of the past twenty years of China-Russian petroleum trade,Sino-Russia petroleum trade is not smooth sailing,although it has made some achievements,but the road is full of ups and downs.The block of Petroleum trade between China and Russia,not only the reasons for Russia,of course,there are reasons for our own,we must consider this problem from a multiple angle.So as to be able to put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions,for the relevant departments to formulate policies and plans to provide the corresponding theoretical basis.In this paper,we use the methods of literature data collection,induction and summarization,and game theory.At first,this paper reviews the history and achievements of China-Russian petroleum trade,And it use game theory as a tool for the China-Russian petroleum trade.For game theory,this paper mostly use evolutionary game model as a tool,and combination of the economic interests and national security interests and the cost of cooperation in petroleum trade.Through the calculation of expected utility function and evolutionary game model,obtained the dynamic evolution path of China and Russia in the petroleum trade process.The paper analyzes the conditions and influencing factors of Sino-Russian petroleum trade cooperation by the dynamic evolution process.According to the strategic mode of international energy cooperation,this paper probes into the strategic mode of Sino-Russian petroleum trade.The use of evolutionary game model is an innovation in this paper,avoiding the traditional method of regression analysis through a large number of data to get the conclusion.However,due to the limited field of expertise,as well as I understand the specific situation of Sino-Russia petroleum trade,it will cause the part of the analysis is one-sided and shallow,and the lack of long-term and overall.Can’t make a comprehensive and profound analysis of the problems in the process of Sino-Russia petroleum trade,and can’t reach a certain theoretical height.These deficiencies will be improved in the future study and research.The petroleum trade between China and Russia,although the starting point is different,but it is complementary,cooperation under certain conditions can be developed on the basis of mutual benefit.The prospect of Sino-Russia petroleum trade is optimistic,the geographical advantage,good political history foundation as well as the common economic interests to promote the development of Sino-Russia petroleum trade.Through the game analysis,it explains the strategic choice of Sino-Russia petroleum trade and the problem of Sino-Russia petroleum pricing.The paper also introduces the prospect of Sino-Russia petroleum trade,the Russia’s accession to the WTO,the Changes in the world energy pattern," Docking The Belt and Road" and the Eurasian Economic Union all of them to create a favorable opportunity for petroleum trade between China and Russia.Finally,according to the problems existing in the petroleum trade between China and Russia,put forward the corresponding policy recommendations:Strengthen the political mutual trust between the two countries,promoting the perfection of petroleum price mechanism,seeking to eliminate the contradiction between Japan and South Korea to establish energy cooperation in Northeast Asia,through all of those to promote the development of Sino-Russia petroleum trade to a better and deeper level.更多还原