【作者】 张博；

【导师】 高玥；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 产业经济学， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 在当下能源紧缺、环境重污染的背景下,新能源汽车是汽车业发展的趋势,发展新能源汽车不仅可以缓解能源短缺、环境污染日益加重的压力,而且还可以为新的经济增长点提供可能性。发展新能源汽车产业已经成为促进社会和经济可持续性发展的一项重要任务,汽车产业是我国支柱产业之一,它与经济增长问题和民计民生问题息息相关。新能源汽车补贴政策在我国已经实施了将近十年,虽然政策在实际执行过程中出现了骗补的问题,但也确实加快和促进了新能源汽车产业的发展。本文从国家和地方两个层面梳理了中国历年新能源汽车的补贴政策并且发现,补贴标准不断变化,企业在初始期较容易获得补贴,补贴力度逐年在退坡,同时,东部等经济发达地区的补贴标准要高于西北等经济欠发达地区的补贴标准。本文采用理论与实证分析相结合的方法,检验了政府补贴政策对新能源汽车产业的影响。理论模型结果解释了实践中厂商过度生产低端电动车以获得更多补贴的情况,并得出结论:从新能源汽车长远发展和高端研发必要性的角度看,研发投入的补贴策略优于产品补贴策略。实证结果显示,政府补贴总体上能够推动新能源汽车企业的研发创新,主要体现在研发投入占销售收入的比例和研发投入资金金额化两个研发指标,通过回归模型的研究分析发现,在控制企业资产规模和财务杠杆等变量后发现,虽然整体上,政府补贴能够激励企业研发投入,但与电池或发动机子产业比较,整车制造产业的补贴对企业研发投入具有挤出效应。结果表明,产品补贴对企业研发投入的促进作用要弱于研发补贴。另外,本文还检验了补贴门槛提高这一政策调整的影响,通过模型对节能与新能源汽车的产量进行了预测,预测模型的实证结果表明,节能与新能源汽车产量的预测值和实际值拟合度非常高,预测值和实际值相当接近,但是,补贴政策调整却引起了节能与新能源汽车产销量的短期大幅度变化,提高研发门槛的补贴政策对产业产量具有短期的消极影响,政策对于抑制骗补以及促进企业转向高端研发投入具有一定的积极作用。结果表明,原来补贴门槛偏低导致了低端车的过度生产,而补贴门槛提高能够促进研发,具有积极的意义,激励企业将研发投入到生产更多高端车上。本文主要研究政府补贴政策对新能源汽车企业研发与创新的政策效果,而在现有的文献中,分析新能源汽车领域政策测度的文献非常有限,并且,在2017年新能源汽车的补贴政策发生调整后,还没有人进行研究评价,本文对这部分文献进行了扩展;并且本文还参考了 Liuand Li(2014)文章中的数理模型研究方法,在对他们的基本效用模型做出适度改进基础上,应用到本文关注的新能源汽车产业的情况,对研发补贴策略和产品补贴策略两种不同策略下的产品数量、质量改进、利润等进行了比较;此外,在对新能源汽车产业补贴政策调整效果测度时,依据本文所用数据,对Peltzman(1973)的实证研究方法进行了简化,简化了的方法也更适合本文的研究。本文的最后部分提出了三点建议,政府应该进一步加强对高端技术的研发补贴力度,在提高补贴门槛减少低端产能的同时,推进对高端技术的突破速度,促进企业对高端产能的释放;为了能使补贴政策在实际执行过程中发挥更好的效果,政府应该结合政策实践对补贴方法和标准进行动态调整,避免财政经费的浪费;而且,政府在对研发和产品补贴的同时应加大对产业链中的充电桩和电池企业进行补贴,支持充电桩产业和电池产业的发展,进而刺激新能源汽车的市场份额。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the background of energy shortage,environment pollution,new energy vehicles is the trend of the development of the auto industry,the development of new energy vehicles can not only alleviate the pressure of the increasingly aggravation of the energy shortage,environment pollution,but also can provide the possibility for a new economic growth point.The development of new energy automobile industry has become an important task to promote the sustainable development of society and economy.The automobile industry is one of the pillar industries in China,which is closely related to economic growth and people’s livelihood.The subsidy policies for new energy vehicles has been implemented in China for nearly a decade,although the policy brought about some issues in the implementation process,but it has also promoted the development of new energy vehicle industry.This paper surveyed the fiscal subsidy policy at national and local level for new energy vehicles each year and found that although the subsidy are decreasing,but subsidies standards are higher in the economically developed regions such as eastern than in northwest regions,the less developed areas.In this paper,the influence of government subsidy policy on the new energy automobile industry is tested by combining theory with empirical analysis.Theoretical model results explain the excess in the practice of the manufacturers making low-end electric cars for more subsidies,and draw the conclusion:the new energy vehicles for the long-term development and the necessity of research and development of high-end perspective,R&D subsidy policy subsidy policy is superior to the products.Part of the empirical results show that the government subsidies on the whole,can promote the research of new energy automobile enterprises innovation,mainly reflected in R&D spending accounts for the proportion of sales and R&D investment amount two development indexes,through the regression model of research and analysis,found that in the control enterprise assets and financial leverage variable,Although overall,the government subsidies can stimulate enterprise research and development,but compared with battery or launch machine industry,vehicle industry subsidies to the enterprise R&D has a crowding out effect on R&D spending.The results show that the impact of product subsidy on R&D investment is weaker than that of R&D subsidy.In addition,this article also examined subsidies threshold to improve the effect of the policy adjustment,through the model to the output of energy saving and new energy vehicles is forecasted,the prediction model of the empirical results show that the energy saving and new energy automobile production forecasts and the fit of the actual value is very high,and the actual and estimated values quite close,however,subsidy policy adjustment has caused the energy saving and new energy automobile production temporary changes greatly,improve the threshold of R&D subsidy policy has a short-term negative impact on industrial output,the policy for restraining the expenses and promote enterprise to high-end research and development has a certain positive role.Results show that the original subsidies threshold low resulted in the excessive of low-end car production,and increase threshold of subsidies to promote the research and development,has the positive significance,incentive enterprises will develop into more high-end car production.This paper mainly studies the government subsidies on new energy vehicles research and development of enterprise and innovation policy effect,in the existing literature,analysis of new energy automobile policy measures in the field of literature is very limited,and,in 2017,after adjustment of subsidies policy in the new energy vehicles also nobody research assessment,this article has carried on the innovation to this part of the literature;And this article also consulted Liu and Li(2014),the mathematical model research methods in the article,in making modest changes to their basic utility model based on the application to this article focuses on the new energy automotive industry,subsidies for investment strategy and product development strategy under the two different strategies of product quantity,quality improvement,profit and so on were compared;In addition,the effect of subsidies for new energy automobile industry policy adjustment measure,according to the data used in this article,the Peltzman(1973),the simplified empirical research method is more suitable for research in this paper.In the last part of this article,we puts forward three suggestions,the government should further strengthen the research and development of high-end technology subsidies,to raise the threshold of subsidies to reduce low production capacity,at the same time,the push for high-end technology breakthrough speed,promote enterprise for high-end the release of production capacity;In order to make the subsidy policy better in practice,the government should make dynamic adjustment to the subsidy method and standard in combination with the policy practice to avoid the waste of financial funds.In addition,the government at the same time of subsidies for research and development and product should be more in subsidies and battery charging pile of industry chain enterprises,support the development of the industry and battery industry,charging pile,in turn,stimulates the market share of new energy vehicles.更多还原