【作者】 赵阳；

【导师】 齐二石；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工程管理硕士（专业学位）， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 海上搜救行动是在海上突发事件出现时保障海上人命、财产、环境免受或减少损失的最后一道防线。我国现有的应急管理体系在运行中暴露出一些不足,主要表现在搜救预案对搜救行动的针对性不强,进而对搜救行动过程中对海上突发事件的应急响应处置工作的指导不够深入,搜救行动很大程度上是依靠经验而非程序来执行,行动效果难以预期。因此,我们需要从管理科学的方法研究我国现有海上救助体系,分析其存在问题的内在根源,并为其提出不足之处的解决途径。建立科学合理的海上搜救管理体系,综合协调人员、机构、知识、技术等,整合各种海上搜救力量,理顺各方力量的协同工作机制,优势互补,使从搜救预案中的静态架构到实际搜救行动中的动态运行的转化中存在的问题得到解决,从而使海上搜救对突发事件的应对更为有效。本文在探讨PERT网络模型对海上搜救行动的适用性的基础上,完成了以下工作:海上突发事件应急响应和处置的工序识别和工序时间估计;对海上突发事件应急响应建立模糊综合评价模型;建立海上突发事件应急响应和处置工作网络模型;利用PERT技术计算海上搜救行动的工期和关键路径,并对行动进行赶工优化;利用蒙特卡洛模拟技术测算所建立的PERT网络模型各条路径的关键度;基于以上研究结果为海上突发事件应急响应提出合理化建议,并通过实证分析验证PERT网络模型的适用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Maritime search and rescue operations are the last line of defense to protect people’s lives,property and environment from or reduce losses at sea.The existing emergency management system in our country have exposed some problems in the operation,mainly in the rescue plan for search and rescue operations targeted is not strong,and the emergency response work of maritime emergency search and rescue operations in the process of guidance is not enough,the search and rescue operations largely depends on experience rather than the procedures to implement.The action effect is expected.Therefore,we need to study and solve the problems and existing problems of China’s maritime search and rescue management system starts from the management science perspective,to analyze the inner cause,establishment of the maritime search and rescue management system is scientific and reasonable,comprehensive coordination mechanism,personnel,knowledge and technology,the integration of various forces and resources,rationalize coordination the mechanism,complementary advantages,solve some problems from the process of the transformation of the operational mode of the executive management system in static organizational structure to the dynamic,to effectively deal with all types of maritime accidents,eliminate and reduce the damage caused by emergencies at sea.Based on discussing the application of PERT network model on SAR operations,completed the following work: process identification and process time of marine emergency response and disposal of estimation;emergency response to marine comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model is set up;the establishment of a maritime emergency response and disposal network model and key period;path calculation of maritime search and rescue operations by using PERT technology,and the operation time of each path optimization;PERT network model established by Monte Carlo simulation calculation technology of the key;based on the above research results for the maritime emergency response rationalization proposals,through empirical analysis and validation of PERT network model.更多还原