【作者】 陈伟；

【导师】 肖长来； 马用祥；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 水利工程（专业学位）， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 随着国家粮食安全战略的实施,农村经济迅速发展,农民生活水平不断提高,农村生活用水和农田灌溉用水程度不断加大,按照国务院办公厅关于《实行最严格水资源管理制度考核办法》要求,推行“总量控制、定额管理”的用水管理机制,对节水型社会建设、水资源紧缺状况缓解、实现水资源的可持续利用具有十分重要的现实意义。本文在系统收集国内外有关定额研究成果的理论基础上,对现状生活用水、农田灌溉用水典型区域进行调研,收集大量的数据资料,并以四省(自治区)颁布的用水定额为参照,对农村生活用水和农田灌溉用水影响因素进行分析,从生活、农田灌溉两个方面剖析和导求,明确规划用水定额的确定方法,在空间尺度上,以水资源三级区套地级行政区为基本单元,力求合理、公平、公正地反映气候、下垫面条件差异导致的定额变化,并客观反映各地用水效率的差异,形成主要研究成果如下:(1)梳理了用水定额的常用确定方法。根据流域实际特点,涵盖区域较大,数据统计相对详实,利用统计分析法、典型定额分析法在各省颁布定额标准基础上预测规划水平年用水定额。(2)划分了用水定额计算分区。研究区涉及水资源二级区3个,三级区10个,省级行政区4个,地市级行政区25个,为便于分析统计和考核,结合气候差异,本文将研究区划分为52个计算单元,按照水资源三级区套行政分区进行单元汇总。(3)划分农田灌溉分区。依据各省综合农业区划、水利区划、水资源分区,考虑水、土、热等条件,根据农田灌溉的布局、发展方向,兼顾行政区界的完整性进行农田灌溉分区。(4)分析近五年农村现状用水定额变化趋势及原因。利用典型区调研、图表分析,与四省区颁布的用水定额进行对比,逐一分析农村居民生活用水、农田灌溉用水指标变化趋势及原因,为预测规划水平年用水定额奠定基础。(5)预测农村生活用水定额。采用Malthus模型、一元线性回归模型和Logistic模型三种方法分别对研究区三级区套地市各地区人口进行了预测,预测2030年人数数量1847.96万人,在现状节水的用水模式基础上,预测2030年需水量为55979.72万m~3,以2015年基准年数据为基准,根据本次人口预测成果、需水量预测成果,确定本次农村生活用水定额建议值,2030年农村综合生活用水毛定额83L/人·d。(6)预测农田灌溉用水定额。本文确定的净灌溉定额值变化趋势为从东向西呈圈层递增,净定额低值区位于外圈国际河流沿线,高值区水田位于江桥以下,水浇地位于额尔古纳河流域。灌溉水利用系数按近期提高略快(按增加值的45%考虑),中期适度(2020年按35%考虑),远期趋缓(2030年按20%规划)原则分配,确定综合灌溉水利用系数变化于0.55-0.78之间。最终确定农田综合灌溉毛定额,75%供水保证率水田毛灌溉定额为410m3/亩-1147 m3/亩,水浇地为80m3/亩-297 m3/亩,菜田为165 m3/亩-542 m3/亩。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the implementation of national food security strategy,the rapid economic development in rural areas and the living standards of farmers are improved constantly,thus the rural domestic water and farmland irrigation water demands are increasing continuously.In accordance with the requirements of"Assessment Method for Implementation of the Most Strict Water Management System",the implementation of the"control of total amount,quota management”water management mechanism has very important practical significance for the construction of water-saving society,alleviating water resources shortage and realization of sustainable utilization of water resources.Based on the theoretical basis of systematic collection of relevant quota research results at home and abroad,this paper carried out research for the status quo of domestic water and irrigation water in representative regions,collected a lot of data and took the water quota of four provinces(autonomous region)as a reference,the affecting factors of rural domestic water and irrigation water were analyzed from the aspects of living and farmland irrigation,clearly plan the determination method of water quota.In the spatial scale,take the three-level administrative division as the basic unit,striving to fairly reflect the quota changes due to different regional climates and underlying surface conditions,and objectively reflect the water-use efficiency differences in different regions,finally obtained the major research results as follows:(1)Assorted the commonly used determination method of water quota.According to the actual characteristics of the basin,the coverage area is relatively large,and the data statistics are relatively detailed.Based on the statistical analysis method and the typical quota analysis method,to predict the planning level annual water consumption quota based on quota standard issued by the provinces.(2)Divided computational regions of water quota.This study involves three second level regions of water resource,ten third level regions,four provincial administrative regions and 25 municipal administrative regions,in order to facilitate statistical analysis and assessment and in combination with the climate differences,the research areas of this paper are divided into 52 computational units,and unit aggregation was carried according to the three-level administrative division.(3)Division of farmland irrigation area.The farmland irrigation division is based on the comprehensive agricultural division,water conservancy division and water resource division,considering the conditions of water,soil and heat,as well as the farmland irrigation distribution,development direction and integrity of administrative division.(4)Analysis of variation tendency and cause of water quota in rural areas in the last five years.Utilizing the typical area investigation,chart analysis and comparison of the water quota issued by four provinces;the trend and reasons of rural domestic water consumption and farmland irrigation water index were analyzed one by one,so as to lay the foundation for predicting and planning annual water consumption quota level.(5)Forecast the rural domestic water consumption quota.Using Malthus model,simple linear regression model and Logistic model to predict the population of the three-level administrative divisions,it is forecasted the population of this region would reach 18.48 million by 2030.Based on the current mode of water consumption,it is predicted the water demand would reach 559.80*10~6 m~3.Take the data of 2015as a benchmark and determine the suggestive value of rural domestic water quota according to the forecast results of population and water demand,the rural domestic water gross quota is 83L/person·d by 2030.(6)Forecast farmland irrigation water quota.The variation tendency of net irrigation quota value determined in this paper present a progressive increase from east to west,the areas with a lower net quota are located along the outer ring of international rivers,the paddy fields of higher quota areas are below the Jiangqiao,the irrigable lands are located in the Arguna River basin.The utilization coefficient of irrigation water is distributed according to the principle of slightly fast increasing in the near future(according to 45%of added value),moderate in the middle term(according to 35%in 2020)and slowdown in the long term(planning according to20%in 2030),determine the comprehensive utilization efficiency variation of irrigation water is between 0.55-0.78.Finally determine the comprehensive gross quota of farmland irrigation,75%guarantee rate of water supply,gross irrigation quota of paddy field is 410m~3/mu-1147 m~3/mu;irrigable land is 80 m~3/mu-297m~3/mu,vegetable field is 165 m~3/-542 m~3/mu.更多还原