【作者】 刘倩；

【导师】 陈志国；

【作者基本信息】 河北大学 ， 统计学， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 全国经济快速发展的进程中,河北省的整体经济也有所提升。然而近几年河北省环境污染事件频频发生,不得不让我们重新认识经济发展所带来的负面影响。在这种背景下,传统的GDP核算指标仅仅能够代表国民经济总量的增长,却不能代表产业部门之间的经济联系,更不能反映资源环境问题。绿色GDP投入产出表能够很好的弥补传统GDP的这些缺陷,因此编制河北省绿色GDP投入产出表并对其分析是很有必要的。本文基于2012年河北省42部门投入产出表,通过搜集整理、统计与预测能够得到河北省资源耗减和环境降级数据,以绿色GDP指标为总量控制,采用绿色投入产出表的编表方法编制出2012年河北省42部门绿色GDP投入产出表。在此基础上,结合绿色系数分析法和模型分析法,对河北省绿色GDP投入产出表进行了分析,包括对绿色GDP与GDP总量的比较分析,绿色系数与原始系数比较分析,还包括从三大产业角度分析了绿色消耗系数和绿色分配系数,从42个部门角度分析了感应度系数和影响力系数,由于第二产业是河北省支柱型产业,所以本文把第二产业细分为27个部门,并且着重分析了27个部门的绿色消耗系数和绿色分配系数,从不同角度利用了不同的绿色系数对河北省经济发展进行了全面分析。结果表明,河北省的资源耗费与环境降级情况并不乐观。农业方面,虽然河北省近几年治理程度有所提升,但是水土流失仍比较严重。可以看出农林牧渔产品和服务部门的绿色感应度系数超过1,它对国民经济中其他部门的制约水平较高,具备了一定程度的推动作用;工业方面,水资源破坏严重,主要由工业部门造成的,粗放型发展和集约化程度低依然很突出,但是影响力系数和感应度系数超过1的却都属于工业部门,可以说明工业部门不管是辐射还是制约其他部门的能力都很强,支柱型产业的地位不容忽视;服务业方面,技术创新和设备管理不是很完善,感应度系数整体不太高,对经济的促进作用不是很明显。最后针对结果,提出着力发展科学化、创新型农业,加大对能源供应业的改造,促进工业向集约化转变,大力发展技术和知识都很密集的产业,加强各大企业节能减排意识、提高排污设备达标率等对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the progress of the rapid development,Hebei Province has developed relatively fast.However,in recent years,environmental pollution incidents in Hebei Province have occurred frequently,so we have to recognize the negative impact of the economic development.In this context,the traditional GDP accounting indices can reflect neither the economic ties between the industrial sector,nor the problems of the resource and environment.It can only reflect the growth of the total national economy.Green GDP input-output table can make up for these shortcomings of traditional GDP,so the preparation and analysis of green GDP input-output table of Hebei Province are very necessary.This article is based on the original input-output table of Hebei Province in 2012.The green GDP input-output table of 42 sectors of Hebei Province in 2012 was prepared by collecting and predicting the data of resource depletion and environmental degradation of Hebei Province.The green GDP index was used as the total amount control.On this basis,the green GDP input-output table of Hebei Province is analyzed by combining the green coefficient analysis method and the model analysis method,including the comparative analysis of the green GDP and the GDP,and the green coefficient and the original coefficient,The green consumption coefficient and the green distribution coefficient are analyzed from the perspective of the three major industries.The inductance coefficient and the influence coefficient are analyzed from the perspective of 42 sectors.Since the secondary industry belongs to the pillar industry of Hebei Province,this article divided the secondary industry into 27 sectors.It analyzed the green consumption coefficient and green distribution coefficient of 27 sectors,and analyzed the economic development of Hebei Province from different angles using different green coefficients.The results show that,the cost of resources and environmental degradation of Hebei Provinceis not optimisticin general.The degree of governance of agriculture of Hebei Province in recent years has been improved,but the soil erosion is still very serious.It can be seen that the green induction coefficient of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery products and services is greater than 1,which has a high degree of restriction on other departments in the national economy and has a certain degree of impetus.In the industrial sector,waterresource is seriously damaged.What’s more,the extensive development and intensive degree of low is still very prominent.However,the influence coefficient and the sensitivity coefficient is greater than 1,which all belong to the industrial sector.It can explain that the industrial sector radiation and other departments are very strong.The status of the industry can not be ignored.In the service industry,technological innovation and equipment management are not perfect enough,the overall coefficient of sensitivity is not too high,and the role of the economy is not very clear.Above all,we should increase the transformation of the energy supply industry,change thetraditional industry to high-tech industry,strengthen the awareness of major energy-saving emission reduction,and improve the rate of sewage equipment and other measures.更多还原