【作者】 王飞；

【导师】 吕涛；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 电力行业在我国国民经济发展中发挥着至关重要的作用,随着我国经济的快速发展,电力需求日益增加,全社会总电力消费逐年增加,目前我国的发电量已经超过美国,取代其成为世界第一。我国煤炭资源丰富,这也决定了我国电力结构以煤炭发电为主,煤电在我国总发电量中长期占据70%以上。虽然煤电产业在提升国民经济方面起到了重要的作用,但是由于煤电本身具有高污染、高能耗以及高的负外部性等特点,在煤炭发电过程中会对大气、水、地表以及土壤环境等造成严重的污染问题,但是该部分外部成本没有被恰当考虑在其发电成本中。因此,我国在积极寻求降低煤电污染物排放的措施,除此之外,,我国也在不断调整电源结构,积极发展可再生能源发电方式,风力发电由于具有污染低、技术成熟等优势,而获得青睐并得到大力发展,但是与煤炭发电相比,风力发电成本较高。基于该现状,并在其他文献的基础上,本文从完全成本视角出发,以完全成本理论、外部成本理论以及产业竞争力相关理论等为基础,运用动态成本模型、影子定价法、敏感性分析、灰色预测模型、学习曲线模型、Bass模型以及常数替代模型地等研究方法对煤电与风电的竞争与替代问题进行深入研究。首先,基于动态成本模型对煤炭发电的内部成本进行梳理以及测算,然后对其存在的多重外部性问题进行识别和分析,构建外部性计量方法,以此得到煤电的完全成本。同样,通过对风力发电过程进行分析,得到风电成本的测算值,对这两种发电方式的完全成本进行比较可以发现,即使将煤电外部成本考虑进去,煤电依旧保持其成本优势。分别通过灰色预测模型和学习曲线模型对煤电与风电成本未来变动趋势进行预测和比较,发现在不考虑煤电外部成本的情况下,煤电与风电成本大致会在2026-2027年之间相持平;在考虑煤电外部成本的情况下,两者成本相持平时间提前6-8年的时间。然后,基于Bass模型对煤电与风电的发展过程进行了分析,发现风电在我国未来电力结构中占据不可取代的地位,并且通过风电对煤电的替代弹性研究,发现煤电价格的上升对于提升风电需求有积极影响。本研究为政府就电力问题制定政策提供依据,为发电企业和投资者进行决策提供意见,并使得我国电力行业得以持续发展,同时实现我国经济、能源、电力与环境的协调发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The power industry plays a vital role in the development of our national economy,with the rapid development of our economy,the demand for electricity and the total electricity consumption is increasing year by year.At present,China’s power generation has surpassed the United States to become the world’s first.Because of the coal resources is rich in our country,the power structure of China is mainly based on coal power,which determines that the coal power in China’s total electricity generation accounted for more than 70%.Although the coal industry plays an important role in promoting the national economy,but because the coal have the characteristics of high pollution、high energy consumption and high negative externalities,and the process of coal power generation will cause serious pollution problems to air,water,land and soil environment,the external cost of the part is not properly considered in the cost of generating electricity as well.In addition to reducing the emissions of coal power,China also constantly adjusting the power structure and actively develop renewable energy power generation.Because of the advantages of low pollution,mature technology and so on,wind power generation has been favored and developed vigorously,but the cost of wind power is higher than that of coal power.Based on the present situation and other literature,this paper starts from the perspective of full cost,basing on full cost theory,external cost theory and industrial competitiveness theory,using the dynamic cost model,shadow pricing method,sensitivity analysis,Grey prediction model,learning curve model,Bass model,constant substitution model and other methods to conduct in-depth research on competition and substitution of coal power and wind power.First,the cost of coal power based on the dynamic cost model is combed and calculated.Then,the multiple externalities of coal power is identified and analyzed,and an external measurement method is built to get the full cost of coal power.Similarly,through the analysis of the wind power generation process,the value of wind power is estimated.By comparing the full cost discovery of two power generation modes,it is found that even the external costs of electricity is considered,coal power still retains its cost advantage.Through the Grey prediction model and the learning curve model,the future trends of coal and wind power costs are predicted and compared in this paper.It was found that in the case of not considering the external cost of electricity,the cost of coal power equals that of wind power between 2026 and 2027,but in the case of considering the external cost of electricity,the cost of coal power equals that of wind power ahead of 6-8 years.Then,based on the Bass model,the development process of the coal power and wind power is analyzed in this paper,and it is found that the wind power plays an important role in the future power structure of our country.Through the study on the substitution elasticity of wind power to coal power,it is found that the rise of coal price has a positive impact on the improvement of wind power demand.This study not only provides a basis for the government to formulate policies on the issue of electricity and advice for power generation companies and investors,but also provides sustainable development for our electric power industry and realizes the coordinated development of China’s economy,energy,power and environment.更多还原