【作者】 王媛；

【导师】 李芹芳；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 土地是经济社会不可或缺的重要资源和活动场所。改革开放以来,我国经济快速增长,但由于我国资源掠夺式粗放发展模式,使得土地资源与用地需求之间的矛盾逐渐激化,未来如何科学合理、节约和集约用地,走可持续发展的道路成为各界关注的焦点。因此,研究建设用地扩张与经济增长的互动关系显得尤为重要。本文以汉中市为研究对象,釆用理论与实证相结合、定性定量相结合和历史分析与未来预测相结合的方法,基于1997-2014年的相关数据,研究建设用地扩张与经济增长之间的脱钩关系。首先,简要回顾了汉中市建设用地扩张与经济增长情况;然后,运用Tapio脱钩弹性系数模型分析了两者之间的脱钩状态及变化趋势;其次,采用脱钩努力模型评价政府脱钩努力程度,分析了上述脱钩状态产生的原因;最后,采用情景分析法预测不同情景模式下汉中市建设用地扩张与经济增长脱钩状态,并提出建设用地与经济增长优化建议。研究结果表明:(1)汉中市建设用地扩张与经济增长虽然没有实现绝对脱钩,但实现了相对的脱钩,说明汉中市经济增长仍需依靠建设用地的不断投入来获得,但依赖度不高。(2)从脱钩努力评价结果来看,研究期间汉中市政府的脱钩努力整体呈现出相对脱钩努力状态。从各效应的脱钩努力程度测算结果来看,建设用地利用强度效应、人口规模效应和产业结构效应中建设用地利用强度效应的脱钩努力作用最大,但作用效果有限,产业结构效应具有较大的建设用地脱钩努力潜力。(3)通过分析汉中市建设用地扩张与经济增长相对脱钩状态产生的原因,汉中市若要实现经济可持增长可进一步通过加强技术创新、优化产业结构和加强用地管理来实现。(4)根据2013-2020年汉中市建设用地与经济增长脱钩预测结果,汉中市还努力向发达地区看齐,进一步从转变用地观念、加大产业结构调整、创新经济增长方式和强化用地管理这四个方面出发,不断的优化建设用地扩张与经济增长间的关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land is an indispensable economic and social resources and activities.Since the reform and opening up,China’s rapid economic growth,but because of China’s resource-intensive extensive development model,making the land resources and land demand between the contradictions gradually intensified.How to make scientific and rational future,save and intensive land use,and take the road of sustainable development to become the focus of attention.Therefore,it is very important to study the interaction between construction land expansion and economic growth.Based on the data of 1997-2014,this paper studies the decoupling relationship between construction land expansion and economic growth by using empirical research,qualitative and quantitative combination and historical analysis and future forecasting.Firstly,the land use expansion and economic growth in Hanzhong City are briefly reviewed.Then,the decoupling state and trend of the two are analyzed by Tapio decoupling elastic coefficient method.Secondly,the decoupling model is used to evaluate the state of decoupling efforts.Finally,the scenario analysis method is used to predict the decoupling of construction land expansion and economic growth in Hanzhong City under different scenarios,and put forward suggestions for optimization of construction land and economic growth.Research indicates:(1)Although the absolute decoupling is not achieved,but Hanzhong City in the economic growth and construction land between the realization of the relative decoupling.In most areas of Hanzhong City,most of the period is relatively decoupled,and the degree of relative decoupling is higher,but the decoupling state is different.(2)From the decoupling efforts to calculate the results of the study point of view,during the study Hanzhong city government decoupling efforts to show a relative decoupling efforts state.From the results of the decoupling efforts of each effect,the decoupling effect of the construction land use intensity effect,the population scale effect and the industrial structure effect in the construction land use intensity effect is the biggest,but the effect is limited,the industrial structure effect has the bigger construction land Decoupling efforts potential.(3)Through the Hanzhong City construction land expansion and economic growth decoupling state of the causes of analysis,to achieve the sustainability of economic growth can only be achieved through timely technological innovation,production structure optimization and enhanced land management to achieve.(4)According to the forecast of the construction land and economic growth in Hanzhong City in 2013-2020,Hanzhong City needs to further optimize the four aspects of changing the land use concept,increasing the industrial structure adjustment,changing the economic growth mode and strengthening the land management.And constantly optimize the relationship between the expansion of construction land and economic growth.更多还原