【作者】 王燕；

【导师】 杨飞；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 城市交通问题已成为城市快速有效发展的制约,由于城市土地空间有限,大中城市已没有土地来实现大规模的道路修建,单纯的依靠新建道路来解决交通拥堵问题已不现实,通过交通需求管理与控制来调节供需已成为解决交通问题的主要手段。交通的主体是人,因此,通过对人在交通出行中的选择行为进行研究,可以为城市交通管理和规划提供依据。前景理论比期望效用理论能够更好的描述决策者在不确定环境下的决策行为,逐渐运用于分析出行者在不确定环境下的出行路径选择行为,并通过模型中的相关参数来反映出行者面临出行中的风险的态度。不同的出行者有不同的风险态度,路径选择的结果也有所不同,本文从风险态度出发,探索出行者风险态度对前景理论模型中相关参数的影响。通过设计SP问卷,调查出行者在不确定条件下出行路径选择的风险态度,采集出行者的个体特征属性信息,分析在不确定条件下出行者风险态度的影响因素,设置在不确定环境下的出行路径选择场景,获取出行者在不确定环境下路径选择结果,分析不同风险态度类型出行者的路径选择行为。利用出行者的个体特征信息,通过回归分析发现,在出行路径选择中,出行者的风险态度受到出行者的职业类型和驾龄的显著影响,驾龄越长的出行者在出行路径选择时越偏好风险追求,企、事业单位员工在通勤出行中也更加倾向于风险追求。根据问卷调查回收的路径选择数据标定出不同风险态度出行者的风险偏好和损失规避系数,参数标定结果显示在通勤出行路径选择中,出行者的风险偏好系数和损失规避系数小于Kahneman和Tversky在经济实验中得出的参数值,风险追求型的出行者在面临收益时对应的风险偏好系数和面临损失时的损失规避系数大于风险中立和风险厌恶型的出行者,风险追求型的出行者在出行选择中更偏好可能带来更大收益的风险路径,风险厌恶者在面临损失时没有明显的损失规避表现。通过算例分析,明确前景理论能够更好的描述路径选择行为,在利用前景理论分析出行路径选择行为时,根据研究群体特征,赋予相应的风险偏好系数和损失规避系数能够更好的描述出行者的路径选择行为。更多还原

【Abstract】 The transportation problems have been the restriction factor of rapid and effective development of cities. Because of the limitation of urban land resources, there is no enough space in large and medium-sized cities to build roads and it is not achievement to solve traffic congestion by constructing new roads. Traffic demand management and control has been the main measure to solve transportation problems by regulating supply and demand.Human beings as the main body of traffic, it is important to study of the mechanism of human choice behavior in traffic to lay a foundation for traffic management and planning.Compared with expected utility theory, prospect theory can better describe the decision making behavior in uncertain environment, and it is used to analysis traveler’s route choice behavior in uncertainty, gradually. Prospect theory used relevant parameters in model to reflect travelers’ attitudes of risk, and different people have different risk attitudes, it is also different of their route choice behaviors. This paper, from the perspective of risk attitude,explores the impact of risk attitude on the relevant parameters of the prospect theory model.This paper designed a stated preference questionnaire survey and used empirical data for study. This questionnaire survey includes three parts: risk attitude, route choice and personal characteristics. Travelers are classification by their risk attitude, the influence factors of travelers’ risk attitude is researched with travelers’ personal characteristics, and use route choice data to analysis travelers’ route choice behavior with different risk attitudes.Based on the data of the individual characteristics of travelers, the regression analysis result showed travelers’ risk attitudes is significantly influenced of travelers’ occupation and driving years. Travelers, with longer driving years, are more risk seeking preference in route choice. And enterprise employees may be higher on the travel time effectiveness in commuter travel, and they are more preferred to risky road.Research results show that the parameter of risk preference and loss aversion is smaller than Kahneman and Tversky’s study, which means that the level of travelers’ risk preference and loss aversion is lower than other economic studies, like financial investment. The risk preference parameter in gain area and loss aversion parameter in loss area of travelers who are risk seeking are bigger than risk natural and risk aversion travelers’. People with high risk seeking is more likely to choose the road with bigger risky, for seeking the bigger gains.Therefore, the parameters of value function should be bigger for traveler who are risk seeking when use prospect theory to predict the route choice behavior. It is not obvious for travelers, who are risk aversion, to loss aversion in losses area.Through the empirical research, it shows that prospect theory can better describe travelers’ route choice behaviors, and when analysis travelers’ route choice behavior by prospect theory, according to research group characteristics, using the corresponding risk preference parameter and loss aversion parameter can better describe the travelers’ route choice behavior.更多还原