【作者】 郭威；

【导师】 杨凤禄；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 产业经济学， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 2014年46号文件(《国务院关于加快发展体育产业促进体育消费的若干意见》)的发布成为了我国体育产业发展的里程碑似起点。该文件发布之后,各地方相关配套政策陆续出台,在政策和资本的助力下,体育产业吹响了快速发展、打造五万亿市场规模的冲锋号。2015年,我国的体育产业总产出大约为1.7万亿元,比2014年我国的体育总产值增加了五千多亿元,增长35. 97%,同期体育产业总产值占GDP的比重为0.8%左右。2015年度体育及相关产业的总产值比2014年的总产值增长了 26. 02%。近几年,中国体育产业呈现井喷式发展,中国的体育资本在世界上频繁豪绰出手成为了体育产业发展的重要标志。例如:苏宁体育产业集团以2亿7000万欧元购得著名的足球俱乐部国际米兰70%的股份;同城兄弟以2. 7亿欧元收购了历经百年的AC米兰的99. 93%的股份,这使得作为国际知名体育俱乐部的米兰双雄都烙上了中国的印记。中国的体育资本不断在全球的体育领域内的攻城略地,这正在改变了中国体育产业的命运。在体育产业发展过程中政府体育支出对非政府体育支出的影响是目前体育产业发展中的热点问题。政府体育支出对非政府体育支出是具有促进作用还是具有抑制作用,直接影响到了我国体育产业相关政策的制定和我国体育产业的发展。虽然国内外的学者已经对挤出挤入的相关问题做了很多的研究,但是主要集中于凯恩斯主义的理论而且大都从宏观角度来分析,结合我国的特殊国情来分析并且细化到一个具体产业的相关问题的研究很少。本文以此为切入点,在对相关理论和文献的梳理之后,研究了体育产业中的两个主要参与者即政府资本和民间资本,对我国的体育支出进行理论研究和实证研究。首先在理论方面,分析了传统的挤出与挤入理论以及此理论在中国的适用性,并根据中国的体育产业的实际情况进行假设并结合RCK建立理论模型,通过对模型的推导,使得政府体育支出与非政府体育支出之间的关系得到很好的理论解释。其次在实证方面,分析了体育支出对经济增长的作用以及政府体育支出与非政府体育支出的挤出效应和挤入效应的关系。本文在研究体育支出与经济增长的实证检验时,使用了面板数据的固定效应分析的方法,发现体育支出与人均GDP存在正相关的关系。进一步在分析政府体育支出和非政府体育支出之间关系,不仅建立了符合中国实际的理论模型而且建立实证模型。实证模型的数据选取了 2005年到2015年的年度数据,并且对所选的数据进行价格平减处理,然后进行平稳性检验和协整检验、建立误差修正模型来分析政府体育支出与非政府体育支出二者分别在长期和短期中存在的相关关系,最后做脉冲响应动态分析和方差分解。根据实证结果,发现在长期内,政府体育支出对非政府体育支出具有挤入效应,但在短期内存在政府体育支出挤出非政府体育支出的现象。最后结合现实的发展环境进行深层次的原因剖析,并提出相关的政策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In year of 2014,our government published the N0.46 file,<the state council on accelerating the development of sports industry, promote the sports consumption of several opinions>.which had become the landmark of sports industry starting point of our country. After released document NO. 46, local government came up with a lot of policy and capital support,our sport industry will become prosperity and strength. In 2015, the state sports industry total output is 1.7 trillion yuan, the added value is 549.4 billion yuan accounting for the same period the proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.8%.In 2015 the sports and related industry output growth was 26.02% more than in 2014, during the period of "twelfth fiver" the average growth rate is 21.12%, the industrial added value growth was 35.97% more than in 2014.In recent years, China’s sports industry has been developing well, and China’s sports capital has become an important symbol of the development of sports industry in the world. Suning sports industry group have used 270 million euros to take over 70% share of the international milan club;Tongchenxiongdi have used euro 270 million to acquired AC milan’s 99.93% share,. China’s capital emerge in sports industry endlessly, stirring the nerve of the world. But the after experienced the turmoil of 2015,Chinese sports industry then return to calm and rational in 2016,beginning to layout with strategic vision and thinking the blueprint of the sports industry.The influence of the government’s large-scale expansion on the expansion of private capital in the development of sports industry is a hot issue in the development of sports industry. Government sports expenditure on non-governmental sports expenditure is a promoting effect can inhibit or, directly affects our country sports industry related policy and the development of sports industry in China. Although the scholars at home and abroad have problem of the relationship between government investment and private investment to do a lot of research, mainly concentrated in Keynesian extrusion and in theory, but in combination with the special national conditions of our country to analyze and refine to a very few studies of specific industry related issues.This article use it as a breakthrough point, researching the relationship between extrusion effect and piled into effect of the government’ sports capital and private’sports capital After the study of related theories and literature, the spending of sports of our country for theoretical research and empirical research analysis.First in terms of theory, the paper analyzes the traditional extrusion and piled into the applicability of the theory and the theory in China, and according to the actual situation of the sports industry in China and assume RCK indefinitely boundary model (RCK) theory model is set up, by deduction and deduction, the model makes the relationship between the government sports expenditure and non-governmental sports expenditure well theoretical explanation.Secondly, the paper analyzes the role of sports expenditure in economic growth and the relationship between government sports expenditure and the crowding out effect of government sports expenditure.Based on the study of sports expenditure and economic growth empirically, using fixed effect panel data analysis method, the results found that sports expenditure is positively correlated with per capita GDP.Furthermore, the relationship between government sports expenditure and non-government sports expenditure is analyzed, which not only establishes the theoretical model that conforms to China’s actual theory, but also establishes the empirical model.The empirical data of the model using the annual data from 2005 to 2015, price deflator for data processing, and then conduct stationarity test and cointegration test, error correction model is set up to analyze the government sports expenditure and non-governmental sports expenditure between long-term and short-term relationship, finally to do dynamic pulse response analysis and variance decomposition.According to the empirical results, found that in the long term, the government sports expenditure on non-governmental sports expenditure have piled into effect, but in the short term government sports expenditure squeezed non-governmental sports expenditure.Finally, this paper analyzes the underlying causes of the development environment and puts forward relevant policy bases.更多还原