【作者】 李丹；

【导师】 侯文；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁师范大学 ， 统计学， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 Bradley-Terry模型是成对比较法中的一种非常重要的模型之一.自从Bradley-Terry模型被提出后,不同方向的研究者开始应用此模型解决成对数据分析问题.目前,该模型在成对数据评估与应用方面起着举足轻重的作用.本文基于Bradley-Terry模型对2015~2016赛季中国男子篮球职业联赛数据进行分析,得到了20支参赛球队的实力指数估计值,以及影响球队实力指数的各项技术指标因素.又基于扩展Bradley-Terry模型对2015赛季中国足球协会超级联赛的数据进行分析,得到了16支球队参赛球队的实力指数及影响球队实力指数的各项技术指标因素.结果显示,在中国男子篮球职业联赛中,投篮命中率、篮板球、助攻对球队实力影响效果显著.在中国足球超级联赛中,射正球门次数、角球数、控球率对球队实力有显著影响.本文采用基本Bradley-Terry模型对图书情报专业的18种期刊2000~2015年间互引数据进行了研究,得到了18种期刊的影响力估计值,统计并分析了影响期刊学术影响力的评价指标以及期刊影响力的动态变化趋势.结果表明,不同指标对期刊学术地位有着不同的影响.各期刊的学术水平随时间的变化而变化.文章基于Bradley-Terry模型对两项体育赛事和图书馆情报专业期刊互引数据进行分析,并结合R语言软件计算结果.这些数据结果的分析为今后预测体育赛事和提高球队的技战术水平提供依据,也为广大研究学者提供了发表科研成果和学术交流的平台.更多还原

【Abstract】 Bradley-Terry model is one of the most important models in the paired comparison method.Since the Bradley-Terry model has been proposed,researchers from different directions have begun to use this model to solve the problem of paired comparison data.At present,the model plays an important role in the evaluation and application of paired comparison data.Getting estimations of the ability index about 20 teams and technical indicators factors affecting team’s strength index by analyzing data based on Bradley-Terry model about China Basket-ball Association in 2015~2016.We also get estimations of the ability index about 16 teams and technical indicators factors affecting team’s strength index by analyzing data based on extended Bradley-Terry model about Chinese Super League in 2015.The result displays that shooting percentage,rebounding,and assisting have a significant effect on the strength of teams in China Basket-ball Association.The goal scoring,corner and ball possession have a significant effect on the strength of the football teams in Chinese Super League.Getting estimations of the intellectual influence about 18 cross-citation periodicals of library and information science by analyzing data based on Bradley-Terry model.Then analysing evaluation index of the intellectual influence and the dynamic trend of the intellectual influence of journals.The results show that different indicators have different effect on the academic status of journals.The academic level of journals changes with time.This paper analyzes two sporting events and cross-citation datas in periodical of library and information science,then combines with R language software to calculate results.These datas will provide some basises for predicting sports events and increasing technical and tactical level of teams in the future.It also provides a platform for scientific research and academic exchange.更多还原