【作者】 乌仁其木格；

【导师】 赵海东；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古大学 ， 政治经济学， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 电力工业是国民经济的基础产业和先行产业,并支撑着其他产业的持续发展。近年来,内蒙古电力工业积极落实国家能源战略,加快调整优化能源结构,实现了电力工业持续快速发展,不仅对地区煤炭资源的就地转化增值、支撑内蒙古冶金、化工等优势特色产业发展,以及内蒙古经济社会的持续发展发挥了重大作用,同时在支持国家经济社会发展上也发挥了重要作用;随着我国进入经济新常态时期,内蒙古电力工业发展也面临着新的挑战。本文首先对国内外关于电力工业问题的研究从电力工业发展、电力与经济增长关系、电力需求预测、电力体制改革和内蒙古电力工业发展研究进行文献综述;并对规制与竞争理论和沉没成本等相关理论进行了梳理。其次在提出电力工业相关概念及界定的基础上,从电力装机、发电量、外送电量、电网建设和电力需求等方面对内蒙古电力工业发展现状进行分析,认为内蒙古电力工业发展面临着"窝电"现象日益严重、弃风弃光问题严峻、市场需求减少、产能过剩凸显、自备电厂与公用电厂矛盾加大和电力基础设施不完善等问题;并通过分析经济新常态下中国电力市场供给侧和需求侧面临的形势和内蒙古电力供需状况,运用回归分析预测法和灰色模型预测法对内蒙古未来五年电力供给和需求进行了预测。最后结合内蒙古经济社会发展实际,分析制约内蒙古电力工业发展的因素,提出积极实施重大电源点建设项目、扩大需求促进电力工业可持续发展、加快完善电力基础设施、大力推进电力科技创新和加强协调配合严格电力监管等促进内蒙古电力工业发展的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Electric Power is the basic and leading industry of national economy,supporting the sustainable development of other industries.In recent years,Inner Mongolia has actively implemented the national energy strategy on electric power industry,speeding up the adjustment and optimization of energy structure,and has realized the sustained and rapid development of the power industry,It not only has impact on the in situ transformation value of local coal resources,supporting industrial development of Inner Mongolian advantages,such as metallurgy,chemical and so on,but also has huge influence on the sustainable development of Inner Mongolian economy and society,while also playing an important role on supporting the national economic and social development.As China enters the new economic period,the new normal of Chinese economy,the development of electric power industry in Inner Mongolia is also facing new challenges.This paper is divided into three parts.The first part is about how the domestic and international research carry out literature review on the electric power industry from aspects of the development of electric power industry,relationship between electric power and economic growth,electric power demand forecasting,electric power system reform and research on the Inner Mongolian electric power industry.And the regulation and competition theory and sunk costs theory and other related theories are also sorted out.The second part puts forward the related concept and definition of electric power industry to analyze the current situation of power industry development in Inner Mongolia from the aspects of electric power installed capacity,electric power generation,electric power transmission,electric power grid construction and electric power demand.the development of electric power industry in Inner Mongolia is facing many problems,for examples,the poor power transmission ability phenomenon is getting increasingly serious,abandoning wind and light problem is grim,the market demand is reduced,serious excess capacity,the contradiction between the self-owned power plant and the public power plant increases imperfectity of the electric power infrastructure and so on.Then,analyze the electric power supply and demand in Inner Mongolia.By analyzing the problems China’s electric power market supply side and demand side facing and the situation of electric power supply and demand in Inner Mongolia under the new normal of Chinese economy,this part forecasts Inner Mongolian electric power supply and demand in the next five years,using the regression analysis and gray model forecasting method.According to the actual economic and social development of Inner Mongolia,analyzing elements of restricting the development of Inner Mongolian electric power industry,putting forward the active implementation of major electric power point construction projects,taking the initiative to seize the electric power market outside the area,vigorously developing the electric power consumption intensive industries and speeding up the improvement of electric power infrastructure,The last part gives suggestions to promote the development of power industry in Inner Mongolia.更多还原