【作者】 李欣；

【导师】 徐波；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,我国老龄人口迅速增长,人口老龄化日益严峻,劳动力人口逐渐由相对丰裕转向相对短缺,家庭养老功能逐渐弱化,社会养老负担日益严重。因此,对我国养老服务业发展现状、经济效应、影响因素、发展路径及对策的研究,以及使养老服务业又快又好的发展路径等是十分值得探讨的重要课题。本文采用定性与定量、逻辑与对比、实证与规范等相结合的研究方法,首先系统梳理人口老龄化、马克思再生产、马斯洛需求层次、福利多元主义、代际伦理关系等相关理论,并对国内外人口老龄化、供给主体及资金来源,以及经济效应等进行综述；其次,对我国目前养老服务业发展现状与存在问题进行深入分析,基于理论和实证分析方法对我国城乡养老服务业发展经济效应进行研究,并通过构建计量模型进行实证检验；最后,结合分析结论及国外发达国家发展经验和启示,给出我国养老服务业未来发展的路径选择。研究发现：(1)发展现状主要体现在“基数大和增速快的老年人口是驱动我国养老服务业需求扩张的决定因素；供给能力显著提升,但与养老市场需求相比仍难以为继；资源配置在不同地区和机构配置严重失衡；资源投入有限,专业化医护人员极度匮乏等是制约供给容量、质量和效率提升的重要因素。”等方面。(2)存在问题体现在“供需矛盾突出,资源配置不均衡；难以转变为产业化的有效需求；管理体制不完善,行业标准未建立；人员素质低、流动性高”等方面。(3)经济效应主要包括“居民消费、投资扩大、产业融合、促进就业、经济增长等；其将成为国民经济中长期稳定的支柱性产业,以企业经济利益为基础的社会化和产业化的养老模式,将拓展整个国民经济增长空间；城镇养老服务业经济效应明显大于农村。”(4)影响因素主要表现在“老年人口规模、社会养老机构增加值、地区居民消费水平以及老年人口城乡结构等因素对我国各地区的养老服务业发展产生明显促进作用;而老年人口结构呈现出明显阻碍作用。”文章最后基于前文研究基础,借鉴国外先进发展经验及启示,给出我国养老服务业发展的路径选择：即“完善发展保障体系—构建多元合作机制—产业化与市场化发展方式—城镇优先和城乡协调发展策略—专业化与标准化发展理念”。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the rapid growth of China’s aging population, increasingly serious aging population, labor force gradually by the relative abundance to the relative shortage, the gradual weakening of family support functions, the burden of social pension is becoming more and more serious. Therefore, research on China’s pension service industry development present situation, economic effect, influence factors, development path and countermeasures, and makes the pension services faster and better development path is is worth to discuss very important topic.This paper uses qualitative and quantitative research methods, logical and comparative, empirical and normative combining relevant theories, firstly reviews the aging of the population, the reproduction of Marx and Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, welfare pluralism, ethic relations, and the domestic and foreign population aging, the main supply and source of funds, and the economic effect etc. review; second, in-depth analysis of the current development of pension service industry and the status quo of China’s problems, studies the economic effects of the theoretical and empirical analysis of China’s urban and rural old-age service industry based on the development, and carry out empirical research by constructing econometric model; finally, combining with the analysis and conclusion of developed countries development experience and enlightenment, path selection the future development of China’s pension services industry is given.Study found that:(1) the development of the status quo is mainly reflected in the large base and the fast growth of the elderly population is driving the determinants of China’s pension services demand expansion; supply capacity significantly improved, but with the demand of pension market is unsustainable; allocation of resources in different regions and institutional configuration imbalance; Resources Co., specialized medical personnel extremely deficient is an important factor restricting the supply capacity, quality and efficiency promotion. " Such aspect. (2) the problems reflected in the "outstanding contradiction between supply and demand, resource configuration is not balanced; it is difficult to change for the industrialization of effective demand; the management system is not perfect, industry standard has not been established; personnel quality is low, high mobility and. (3) economic effect mainly includes the "expansion of consumption and investment, industrial integration, promote employment, economic growth, etc.; it will become pillar industry of the national economy long-term stability and to the economic interests of the enterprise for the socialization and industrialization of basic pension model, will expand the entire national economy growth space; urban endowment service industry economic effect was significantly greater than that in rural." (4) influencing factors is mainly manifested in the "size of the elderly population, the social pension institutions increased value, the consumption level of the local residents and elderly population in the urban and rural structure. Factors in various regions of China’s pension services development have a significant role in promoting; and the elderly population structure showing significantly hinder the role."Finally based on the above research foundation, draw lessons from foreign advanced experience and Enlightenment on the development, given China’s endowment service industry development path choice:"perfect the guarantee system construction of multi cooperation mechanism in-industrialization and market development-towns priority and coordinated urban and rural development strategy of specialization and standardization development of the concept of".更多还原