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海林市出租汽车保有量预测与发展政策研究
Research on The Population Prediction And Development Policy of Taxi in Hailin
【作者】 姜鑫;
【导师】 蒋贤才;
【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 , 交通运输工程(专业学位), 2016, 硕士
【摘要】 伴随海林市社会经济的快速发展,刺激了海林市城市居民交通出行频率的日趋活跃,同时城市居民对交通出行服务质量和效率的要求也越来越高。出租汽车作为一种“点”到“点”的高质量出行服务交通方式,在海林市主城区常规公交系统不发达的情况下,发展十分活跃。但海林市出租汽车行业自身存在着供求不平衡、服务不规范、现有经营模式与目前行业倡导的先进经营模式差距大等问题。在我国大力倡导优先发展公共交通的背景下,如何引导出租汽车行业进入健康发展轨道,使出租汽车的发展立足于海林市城区运力发展实际状况,发展数量与市域经济、人口发展、旅客运输需求相适应,是一项亟待解决的课题。首先分析了海林市社会经济及出租汽车的发展现状,提出了出租汽车市场存在的主要问题。通过交通调查,得到了海林市居民出行特征和出租汽车运营状况等数据,基于调查数据对海林市出租汽车出行总量进行了预测。综合考虑社会经济发展需求,采用供求平衡法、总量控制法、合理收益法和空驶率法综合预测了海林市未来年出租汽车合理保有量。其次,依据海林市出租汽车保有量的预测结果,结合海林市市域经济、人口发展、旅游需求等,从总量控制、运价机制、营运模式、管理体制等方面提出了海林市出租汽车发展政策建议。最后,针对提出的海林市出租汽车发展政策,从车辆投放模式、出租汽车企业经营模式、驾驶员准入与退出机制、经营权管理与产权交易、出租汽车企业经营行为、出租汽车市场管理等方面构建了海林市出租汽车发展政策的实施方案;从停靠站点、加气站、综合服务设施和信息化管理系统等方面提出了与海林市出租汽车发展政策相配套的服务设施建设方案;从法律、领导组织、财政政策和规划等层面指出了实施方案落实的保障条件。
【Abstract】 With the rapid development of social economy in Hailin City, the transportation frequency of urban residents in Hailin city has become increasingly active, and the requirement of the travel service quality and efficiency of urban residents is also getting higher and higher. In the case of underdeveloped bus system in hailin city, the development of taxi is very active due to taxi as a kind of "point to point" of high quality travel service traffic. However, some problems come into being, such as the demand and supply in market are out of control, poor service, the big gap between the existing business model and the management pattern advocated by industry,ete. In the background that cities sparkpluged public transportion piority, how to guide the taxi industry enter the orbit of healthy development and make the development of taxi in hailin be adapt to the actual situation of urban transportation, the development of quantity, regional economic and population and the demand of passenger transport is a subject to be solved urgently.First of all, the paper analyzed the current situation of social economy and the taxi, and put forward the existing problem. Based on survey datum, the travel characteristics of resident and the operation condition of taxi were got, considering socio-economic development demand, the taxi capability was predicted by the method of the supply and demand balance, total control, reasonable income and empty rate.Secondly, based on prediction results of the taxi capability and combined with district economy, population development, travel demand, etal. The taxi development strategy which includes the total amount control and model configuration, taxi rate mechanism, operation mode, management system, implementation and safeguard measures is formulated.Finally, according to the proposed taxi development policy in Hailin, the implementation plan of taxi development policy in Hailin was constructed from the vehicle release mode, the taxi business running model, driver access and exit mechanism, management right of management and property right transaction, the taxi business behavior, the taxi market management,ete. The corresponding supporting facilities which includes the bus stops, LPG stations, comprehensive service facilities and information management system was proposed; it was provided the safeguard for implementing the strategic plan from the law, leadership organization, fiscal policy and planning, etc.
【Key words】 Hailin; taxi; demand forecasting; development policy; implementation plan;
- 【网络出版投稿人】 哈尔滨工业大学 【网络出版年期】2017年 02期
- 【分类号】U492.434;F572.88
- 【下载频次】114