【作者】 王成；

【导师】 熊艳艳；

【作者基本信息】 东南大学 ， 国际商务（专业学位）， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 随着世界经济的发展和开放程度的不断提高,各个国家之间的经济周期波动出现了协动性,即经济体同步扩张或收缩的现象。引起国家之间的经济周期波动协动性的主要因素很多,由于外商直接投资(FDI)在国际经济往来中发挥越来越重要的作用,所以被纳入作为研究影响经济周期协动性的重要的外来冲击因素,基于东亚与中国经济的联系以及作为中国外商直接投资重要的互动地区,研究外商直接投资对中国和东亚经济周期协动性的影响,有利于把握中国经济与东亚经济周期运行规律,加强经济合作和政策协调,从而促进中国经济平稳发展。本文选取了东亚主要的14个经济体,对它们与中国之间的双边经济周期协动性进行了定性和定量研究,通过实际增长率分析得知中国FDI增长率波动的幅度要大大超过GDP增长率的波动幅度,并且FDI增长率的波动与经济周期的波动呈现出相关性。本文构建经济指标分别衡量了中国与东亚各经济体的双边经济周期协动性、外商直接投资、贸易和产业内贸易情况,结合HP滤波分析对包括中国在内的15个东亚经济体的GDP序列进行分解,提取周期波动项后,得出东亚的经济波动存在一定程度的同步性。本文并且还研究样本时间跨度内存在的共同扩张期和收缩期,并在此基础之上建立面板数据模型,实证分析FDI对经济周期波动的影响。综合以上研究结果,在FDI对中国与东亚经济周期协动性的变化分析中,中国与东亚经济体的经济周期协动性和直接投资存在正相关关系,当两个经济体之间的双边FDI强度增大,它们之间的经济周期协动性就增强,但实证分析结果虽然表明FDI对经济周期协动性影响的方向是正向的,但是在统计上并不显著。最后基于文章的研究过程和结果,提出重视反周期政策的制定和提高外资利用效率,合理引入外商直接投资的政策建议,注重发挥FDI对经济扩张时期的有利影响,避免外资来源过于集中,放大中国与投资来源地区的经济负面互动,缓解由于总量波动过大和比例失衡所引起的周期波动,从而确保经济的平稳运行。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development and openness of the world economy, economic cycle co-movement occurs in the fluctuations among various countries’ economies, which means the phenomenon of economies synchronous expansion or contraction. There are many factors contribute to economic cycle co-movement. Due to the reason that foreign direct investment (FDI) plays an increasingly important role in international economic, it has been introduced to explain economic cycle co-movement as an important external shock.East Asia is one of the most important regions for China to interact with in the section of foreign direct investment, let alone the close economic tie between these two parties. Therefore, do research on the effects of FDI on Chinese and East Asian economic cycle co-movement is so conducive to grasp the law of economic operation. It is also a good way to strengthen economic cooperation and policy coordination. All of these are of great significance to the stable economic development of China.This paper selects 14 major East Asian economies to do qualitative and quantitative research on the bilateral economic cycle co-movement between these economies and China. It can be obtained by taking advantage of the analysis on actual growth rate that China’s FDI growth rate volatility is much greater than the GDP growth rate. Besides, there is a correlation between the fluctuation in FDI growth rate and economic cycle. Construct indicators to measure the bilateral economic cycle co-movement, foreign direct investment, trade and intra-industry trade between China and East Asian economies. HP filter analysis is employed to decompose the GDP series of 15 East Asian economies which includes China, finding a degree of synchronization in the East Asia economic fluctuations. Furthermore, there are common expansions and contractions during the time span of the study. Based on the analysis above, a panel data model is established to examine the impact of FDI on the economic cycle co-movement. The analysis on the changes of FDI to economic cycle co-movement between China and the East Asian economies shows that there is a positive correlation between the economic cycle co-movement and foreign direct investment. That is to say, when bilateral FDI intensity increases, the economic cycle co-movement will be enhanced. However, the empirical results show this kind of relation is not significant, though the impact of FDI on the economic cycle co-movement is positive.Finally, some policy recommendations are put forward. The first one emphasizes on the importance to develop counter-cyclical policies, while the second one is to improve the efficiency of foreign capital utilization. It is wiser to introduce foreign direct investment in a rational way. Explore the beneficial impact of FDI on economic expansion period and enlarge the source of foreign investment.更多还原