【作者】 王珂；

【导师】 邓爱民；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 近些年来,供应链金融业务因引入供应链中的核心企业、物流企业以及互联网信息等新的风险控制变量,来控制多为“订单与仓单、应收与预付账款、存货”等动产的中小企业融资的信用风险,不但有效解决了中小企业融资难、银行等金融机构惜贷的矛盾困境以及企业三角债根治难的问题,而且以不同于单个企业融资的链式动产贸易融资带来了产业与金融市场的创新与变革,受到银行、物流、电商等线上线下业界的追捧。随着业务的发展,信用问题凸显出来,尤其是如何评估供应链金融下的中小企业信用风险问题日渐重要。在先前学者研究的基础上,本文以供应链金融业务中的中小企业作为研究对象,在分析供应链理论、供应链金融理论、中小企业理论以及供应链金融信用风险理论的基础上,研究阐述了供应链金融业务的参与主体,分析了中小企业的信用风险来源,然后通过经验分析法、问卷调查法等构建出较为科学合理的供应链金融信用风险评估指标体系,最后使用主成分分析和Logistic回归分析的方法,通过实证建立了计算供应链金融中小企业信用风险守约概率的评估模型。研究结果表明,供应链金融需要从新的角度来评估中小企业的信用风险,与银行传统业务中只考察单一融资企业的静态信用风险不同,需要评估整个供应链的稳定性及供应链企业之间交易的信用风险,从之前关注考察融资企业静态财务数据转而变为动态跟踪供应链运营的有效性,同时考虑核心企业的资信水平以及贸易发生的真实性；本文建立的供应链金融中小企业信用风险评估指标体系中,中小企业自身的因素指标最多,尤其是融资项资产方面的因素(包括质押物产品的贸易次数、客户对产品的满意度、产品价格稳定性等),其次是核心企业的因素与供应链因素,说明这三大类是信用风险的主要来源；通过实证构建的Logistic回归模型具有一定的预测价值,为中小企业的信用风险评估提供了数据支撑,有助于银行做出合理的贷款决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the supply chain finance business has been sought after by Banks, logistics and electronic business. Because the supply chain finance business effectively solves the difficult problems, like SME’s financing problem, contradictions plight of bank credit squeeze and corporate debt default problem. And it, which brings the innovation and transformation of industry and financial market, introduces new risk control variables, such as the core enterprise, logistics enterprise and Internet information. With the development of the business, the credit problem has come out. In particular, how to assess the credit risk of SMEs in supply chain finance becomes increasingly important.Based on existing research, this paper took the small and medium-sized enterprise as the research object. On the basis of analysis of supply chain theory, supply chain finance theory, small and medium enterprises theory and supply chain finance credit risk theory, this paper elaborated the participants of supply chain finance business, and also analyzed the sources of credit risk of SMEs. Then the credit risk assessment system was built by empirical analysis and questionnaire survey method. Finally, the logistic model was developed to assess the credit risk of small and medium enterprises through the principal component analysis and Logistic regression method.The results show that, supply chain finance business is different from traditional banking business, which only inspects the static credit risk of a single financing enterprise. The supply chain finance business needs to evaluate the stability of the whole supply chain and the credit risk between the supply chain enterprises. In the credit risk assessment system this paper built, most of the indicators are indicators of SMEs, especially the factors of the financial assets (Including trade number of products, customer satisfaction, product price stability, etc). The second is the core enterprise factors and the three is supply chain factors. This shows that these three categories are the main source of credit risk. According to the results of the empirical analysis, the logistic model this paper built has the high predictive value, which provides data support for the credit risk assessment for SMEs. And this model is helpful for banks to make reasonable lending decisions.更多还原