【作者】 张婷；

【导师】 逯宇铎；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 金融学， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 随着智能化时代的到来,国与国之间的经济联系更加密切,国际资本流动性增强。国际资本在一国的经济增长中不可忽视。改革开放以来,中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家,发展速度和发展规模都备受瞩目,而国际资本的流入对中国的经济发展起到了很大的促进作用,中国是外商直接投资流入大国,2013年中国外商直接投资流入量仅次于美国居全球第二。在国际金融中,汇率对FDI的影响是经典问题,也有越来越多的学者基于总体或国别研究人民币汇率对FDI的影响,并得出了不同的结论,本文在此背景和基础下,共分五章,从理论和现状入手,通过理论推导和实证研究分别研究汇率对总量和分行业FDI的影响。文章第一章和第二章为现状分析以及理论综述介绍,介绍本研究的研究现状及理论发展；第三章为理论推导,是在国际直接投资理论以及前人研究的基础上,在D-S垄断竞争假设条件下从基本的消费者效用函数出发,推导外商直接投资的引力模型；并利用lasso方法剔除共线性的变量,本章所选的变量和汇率一起作为解释变量解释FDI。第四章实证研究全国和不同行业中汇率对FDI的影响：总量研究中分别选取2001年到2015年15年的全国宏观月度数据实证研究汇率变化、预期及波动对总量FDI的影响;分行业研究中以与我国贸易量较大的16个国家的进出口贸易权重为基础计算的工业行业的分行业汇率以2006年到2014年9年的季度数实证检验分行业汇率对分行业FDI的影响,并选取了5个服务业行业工业行业对比分析；第五章是结论及展望。本文经理论及实证检验发现汇率预期和汇率波动对外商直接投资的影响较小,且汇率波动多为短期影响,实际有效汇率的变化对FDI流入影响较大；分行业汇率研究发现汇率变化对工业行业和服务业行业的影响方向相反,人民币升值抑制工业行业FDI的流入,促进服务业FDI的流入,流入我国工业行业的主要是出口导向型FDI,流入我国服务业的主要是市场导向型FDI。本文在考虑部分控制变量的基础上研究汇率对我国外商直接投资的影响方向及大小,并对政府对策建议的完善及行业政策的制订等提供一定参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the coming of the era of intelligence, economic relationship are much closer between countries, strengthen of fund mobile in the world, the international capital can not be ignored in a nation’s economic growth. Since China reform and opening up, as the biggest developing country in the world, speed and scale of development are high-profile, international capital has played a great role in promoting, Chinese FDI is superpower, the FDI inflows after the United States in the world in 2013. In international finance, the impact of exchange rate on FDI is a classical problem, more and more scholars study the influence of the RMB exchange rate on FDI based on overall or country FDI, drawn the different conclusions. Under the background and basis, this paper mainly divides into five chapters, the paper from theory and current situation with theoretical and empirical methods study the effect of exchange rate on the total amount and sectors of industry of FDI.The first chapter and second chapter of the paper introduce the present situation analysis and the theory background, introduced the status quo and theory development of this research; Chapter three on the basis of the international direct investment theory and predecessors’ research under the condition of D-S monopolistic competition assume from the consumer utility function derivation the expansion of the basic gravity model. And use the lasso method to eliminate collinearity variables, the selected variables are explained variable to explain FDI.The chapter four from the total amount and divisions research the impact of exchange rate on FDI with the empirical methods:the total research study the impact RMB exchange rate on FDI from the exchange rate change, expectation and fluctuations with the 15 years data from 2001 to 2015 to the empirical research; divisions research selected the five services comparative to industry; in the divisions research we selected 16 countries calculated import and export trade on the basis of the weights to calculated the different industries of exchange rate, the empirical study selected nine years quarterly data from 2006 to 2014. The fifth chapter is conclusion and prospect.From the theoretical and empirical test we found that expectations and volatility of exchange rate has little effect on foreign direct investment, fluctuations mainly is short-term impact, the change of real effective exchange rate has great influence on FDI inflows. Divisions study found that exchange rate changes to industry and service has opposite effect, revaluation of RMB has restrained FDI inflows in industrial sectors and had promoted services FDI inflows. The FDI inflows into the industrial sectors is mainly export-oriented FDI and inflows into the service sector is mainly market-oriented FDI in our country. This paper has researched the impact of exchange rate on foreign direct investment in China in consideration of some control variables. The paper provide certain reference for the improvement of the countermeasures and suggestions to the government and industry policy.更多还原