【作者】 刘玲；

【导师】 邵军；

【作者基本信息】 东南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国制造业的总体规模发生了巨大的变化。总体上看,2002-2011年的10年期间,出口工业制成品的增长率都在25%以上,工业制成品出口总量占总出口量的比重由1980年的49.70%上升到2008年的95.55%,从地区分布来看,我国东部地区经济较发达,2009年其工业制成品出口占出口总额的比例高达91.78%,中部地区所占份额很小,为4.78%,西部地区工业化程度低,所占份额仅为3.44%,工业制成品出口地域发展不均衡。当前我国政府正在进一步推进改革开放和经济稳步增长,研究我国制造业企业的出口与产出的波动性的关系对我国未来的经济发展具有重要意义。出口贸易对经济增长的促进作用已经得到广泛的理论和实践证明,出口贸易有利于资源有效配置,促使技术溢出和推动创新,但这实际上只能反映宏观层面上出口贸易的利得,并没有反映出口贸易对企业层面产出增长的影响。21世纪初始,学术界关于出口对产出增长的关注点逐渐从国家层面转移到了企业层面,研究出口贸易在推动企业产出增长的同时对其波动造成的影响,以准确认识企业的市场竞争力及推动企业持续稳定发展。本文在结合相关国际贸易理论的基础上,构建企业出口对产出波动的影响模型,测度我国企业出口开放度对产出波动的影响,并通过将企业按科技研发能力分为高科技企业和非高科技企业,按企业所在地区分为东部地区、中部地区和西部地区企业,分别测度不同类型企业和不同地区企业的出口对其产出波动的影响。利用中国2000-2009年制造业企业的面板数据,采用固定效应模型进行实证检验,本文发现,出口贸易对企业产出波动具有抑制作用,企业的出口扩展边际能够减少产出的波动性,但是出口对企业产出波动性的平抑作用主要是通过集约边际驱动的,即企业的出口份额越高,产出波动性越小。而且,企业的资本密集度越高对产出的波动性越小,企业的实际销售规模越大越能降低企业的产出波动性。高科技性企业的出口对产出波动的影响作用较为显著,非高科技型企业的出口对产出波动具有明显的抑制作用。东部地区企业的出口对产出波动具有明显的平抑作用,而中西部地区的企业出口对产出波动的影响作用并不显著。最后,本文在研究结论的基础上给出了相应的政策建议,国家要为企业出口创造有利的政策条件,完善金融市场对企业融资的支持,并继续推进东部地区开放,积极促进中西部地区的开放性发展；企业要积极扩大出口,扩大销售规模,提高科技研发能力,从而提升出口竞争力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Export trade promotes the economic growth has been proved by the extensive theories and practice, export trade is advantageous to the efficient allocation of resources,to promote technology spillovers and promote innovation. But it can only reflect the export trade gains on the macro level, did not reflect the effects of export trade growth in output level of the enterprise. At the beginning of 20 century, the scholars’focus on output growth transfer gradually from the national level to the enterprise level. Studying the impact of the export trade to output fluctuations enables enterprise know their market competitiveness and promote the enterprises develop steady.On the basis of international trade theory and reference to previous research, we build the model about the fluctuations of enterprises’export to the output,using the filter method to measure the fluctuations of our country enterprises’export openness to output. And divided the enterprises into high-tech enterprises and low-tech enterprises by their ability of research and development, what’s more, we divide the enterprises into east region, middle region and west region by their region, and measure the different enterprises’volatility of export to output.Using China’s manufacturing enterprises’panel data in 2000-2009,and using fixed effect model to make empirical test, the paper finds export trade has inhibitory effect to the enterprise’output fluctuations. Enterprise’s export extensive marginal can reduce output volatility, but the inhibiting effect of exports to the enterprises’output volatility is mainly driven by intensive marginal, it means the enterprises export more, the output volatility is less. What is more, enterprise’s capital intensity is higher, the volatility of output is lower. The enterprise’s larger actual sales can reduce enterprise output volatility, Enterprise’s technological innovation ability makes significant impact on output fluctuations, eastern region enterprise’s export has obvious inhibiting effect on output volatility. Finally, on the basis of the research conclusion, the paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.更多还原