中国省际经济增长收敛机制研究

【作者】 陈懿；

【导师】 谢波；

【作者基本信息】 昆明理工大学 ， 国民经济学， 2016， 硕士

【副题名】基于人力资本分布与能源消耗视角

【摘要】 改革开放30多年以来,取得了年均GDP超过8%的增长率,被称为中国奇迹。但与中国经济高速增长相伴随的是区域经济差距的逐渐扩大,区域经济问题越来越引起人们的注意。这些年来,区域经济收敛性问题成为政策和学术研究的热点。中国是否存在经济收敛?收敛受哪些因素影响?通过哪些因素的改进可以提高区域经济的收敛?这些都是本文要研究的问题。首先,本文对经济增长理论、经济增长收敛理论进行了分析、归纳和总结,对测算区域经济差异的各种指标的测算方法进行了分析和比较。其次,通过计算中国区域人力资本的平均存量和离散度来分析人力资本分布现状。 采用人均GDP增长率、标准差、机制比率、变异系数来考察我国经济现状。第三基于经济增长收敛的理论和方法,采用1990-2012年期间的截面数据和省际面板数据,分别考察我国经济的。收敛、绝对p收敛和条件β收敛,发现只有东部存在显著的绝对收敛。若加入其他影响因素和控制变量,则东中西部均存在明显的条件收敛。第四基于卢卡斯模型,考察人力资本分布、能源消耗与中国区域经济差距之间的关系,结果表明人力资本的存量以及分布对区域经济差距的拉大有显著的正向影响,且能源消耗也是东中西部区域之间经济发展差距日益扩大的重要原因。综合理论分析和实证研究结果,本文提出以下缩小区域经济差异的政策建议：一,转变经济发展观念,加大人力资本的投资力度。二,构建完善的人力资本体系,确保人力资本分布的平衡性。三建立绿色GDP为核心的核算体系,发展循环经济。更多还原

【Abstract】 For more than 30 years of reform and opening-up, China has obtained the growth rare of GDP per year more than 8%.People call such situation "China Miracle".But China’s rapid growth of economy is accompanied by gradually widening of regional development gap.These days, people pay more attention on regional economy. Regional economic convergence problem is becoming a hot topic of policy and academic research.Is economic convergence really exiting in China?Which factors affect economic convergence?The convergence of regional economic can be improved by mending which factors. Such problems will be discussed in this paper.Firstly,this paper analyze and conclude resource curse consumption,theory of economic growth and theory of economic convergence.And comparing the different index which was used to calculate regional economic gap.Secondly,analyzing the distribution of human capital by calculating expectation and variation.Thirdly,using cross-section data and panel data to investigate σ convergence and absolute convergence and conditional convergence.It has been found that absolute convergence only exist in the Easter region significantly.If other factors and control variable had been added,conditional convergence exist in the Eastern,Middle and Western.Fourth,this paper discuss the relationship of human capital distribution,energy consumption and regional disparity based on Lucas Model.The conclusion indicates that human capital stock and distribution has positive influence on regional economy gap,and energy consumption play an important role on development gap between the Eastern, Middle and Western. Synthesizing theory analysis and empirical research.This paper proposes the following suggestions to narrow economy development gap:Firstly,changing the concept of development and increasing the investment of human capital.Secondly,constructing perfect human capital system to ensure the balance of human capital distribution.Thirdly,establishing accounting system which was based on Green GDP and developing recycling economy.更多还原