【作者】 陈佳；

【导师】 黄承锋；

【作者基本信息】 重庆交通大学 ， 工程硕士（专业学位）， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 泸州港与宜宾港是长江上游最重要的两个内陆港口,港口间经济腹地重叠等问题这造成了两港资源浪费,进一步加剧港口间的恶性竞争,甚至出现两败俱伤的局面,不利于港口有效发展。港口竞合发展是指港口在竞争中寻找合作契机,发展过程中不仅能保持港口竞争状态下的发展动力,还能合理利用竞争港口发展优势,从而促进自身港口的发展。研究港口间竞合关系,有利于避免港口间恶性竞争,加强港口间合作,指导港口提升核心竞争力,是港口发展的重要策略。本文综合运用竞合理论与博弈论,对泸州港与宜宾港发展及竞争现状进行分析,研究了泸州港与宜宾港竞合发展的具体问题,提出了两港竞合发展策略与竞合发展策略保障措施。本文主要研究内容及研究结论如下:首先,在各专家学者的研究基础上提出,泸州港与宜宾港的港口发展影响因素主要是:地理位置、经济腹地、基础设施以及政府扶持。本文结合两港发展及竞争现状,得出泸州港与宜宾港竞合发展的必要性。其次,本文运用演化博弈研究了港口在发展进程中的发展策略变化,得出两港随着时间的推移,发展策略会发生改变。为了给泸州港与宜宾港的发展提出切实可行的策略,本文搜集并将两港发展至今的集装箱吞吐量、集装箱运输价格、港口货物吞吐量以及货物运输价格,代入博弈模型,得出当今两港发展中集装箱运输以及其他货物运输均在两港竞争发展的状态下获取更高的利益,符合两港发展现状,同时也验证了模型的准确性。再次,由于泸州港与宜宾港货物运输主要是集装箱运输与散货运输,为了保证文章的合理性与完整性,本文采用指数平滑以及BP神经网络预测两港2016年至2020年的集装箱吞吐量、集装箱运输价格、港口货物吞吐量以及货物运输价格,从集装箱与其他货物两方面预测两港发展相关数据,并将数据代入模型,得出两港在2016年到2020年期间港口发展策略应为:2016年-2019年,两港采用竞合发展策略;2020年,两港发展将采用竞争策略。最后,为了使两港竞合发展有序进行,本文针对两港现状提出了港口竞合发展的策略,并提出相应的保障措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Luzhou port and Yibin port are the two most important inland port upstream of the Yangtze river.Port economic hinterland overlap problems which resulted in the two ports waste of resources,further aggravate the vicious competition among the ports,and even the emergence of a lose lose situation.Research on the cooperation of the port group,which is beneficial to avoid the vicious competition between ports,to strengthen the cooperation among the ports and to develop together.Port competition development refers to seek cooperation opportunities in the competition,development process can not only keep the port competition condition the development of the power,still can reasonable use competitive port development advantages,so as to promote the development of its own port.Therefore,how to carry on the effective competition between Luzhou port and Yibin port.In this paper,the integrated use of co-opetition theory and game theory.Status quo of luzhou port and yibin port development and competition is analyzed.Luzhou port is studied with the concurrence of yibin port development of specific issues.Proposed the development strategy and the two port phenomenon in development strategy on safeguard measures.In this paper,the main research contents and research conclusions are as follows:First of all,on the basis of the experts and scholars research,the major influencing factors of port development for luzhou port and yibin port are:The geographical position,economic hinterland,infrastructure,and government support.Combined with the port development and competition of the status quo,this paper draws the luzhou port and the necessity of yibin port competition development.Secondly,this paper uses game theory in research about development strategy changes of the port in the development process,it is concluded that the two port with the passage of time,the development strategy will change.In order to put for ward luzhou port and the development of yibin port a practical and feasible strategies,this article collects the data of the two port container throughput,container transport prices,port cargo throughput and transport of goods,and put the data generation into the game model.It is concluded that the two port in the development of container transportation and other transport of goods are in the state of port competition development to obtain higher benefits.This conclusion conforms to the current situation of the development oftwo the ports.It also verify the accuracy of the model at the same timeAgain,because of luzhou port and yibin port cargo transport mainly container and bulk cargo transportation,In order to guarantee the rationality of the article and integrity,This paper uses exponential smoothing and BP neural network to predict two port container throughput from 2016 to 2020,container transport prices,port cargo throughput and transport of goods,From two aspects of the container and other goods predict two port development related data.Then and put the data generation into the game model,It is concluded that the two port during 2016 to 2020 the port development strategy should be:In 2016-2019,the two port will adopt competition development strategy;In2020,two port development will adopt the strategy of competition.Finally,in order to make the two port development orderly,this paper put forward the development strategy,and put forward the corresponding security measures.更多还原