【作者】 李琳；

【导师】 谷栗；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 会计（专业学位）， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 天然气巨头安然公司的轰然倒塌震惊了全世界,财务报告舞弊问题已经不容忽略。自我国证券市场建立以来,财务报告舞弊的问题就一直伴随着证券市场的发展。制造业上市公司作为主力军,它的财务报告舞弊问题已然成为阻碍我国经济正常有序发展的绊脚石。本文通过建立舞弊识别模型,旨在为审计准则的完善提供对策建议,也希望能够提高监管部门、注册会计师和投资者对上市公司舞弊的识别率,防范财务报告舞弊的发生及其带来的风险或损失。首先,本文选取2006-2015年因提供虚假财务报告而被中国证监会处罚的制造业上市公司为研究样本,基于内部控制和舞弊三角关系理论,在内部控制框架中寻找可以通过内部控制要素加以控制的方法,从压力、机会和借口三方面描述的财务报告舞弊的一般性特点,选取了18个相关变量,通过运用赋值法给非财务信息进行赋值。以实证分析为主,理论分析为辅。运用配对样本T检验、相关分析和二项Logistic回归等统计分析法为手段,得到10个显著识别制造业上市公司财务报告舞弊的变量,建立了针对制造业上市公司财务报告舞弊识别的模型。该模型的整体识别率为80.65%,能较好的识别出前期的财务报告舞弊迹象。此外结合我国上市公司信息披露的现状与实证检验所得到的结果,从内部控制角度,提出防范财务报告舞弊的政策建议:完善企业内部控制环境建设、注重风险评估,制定风险防范和应对策略、提升控制活动的执行效率与效果、加强信息与沟通的及时性与准确性、建立健全内部监督机制。由于不同的行业它的情况不同,因此同一个财务报告舞弊识别模型不一定适用于全部的行业,本文针对制造业这一行业,来建立的Logistic回归模型,可以较好的识别制造业上市公司发生财务报告舞弊的可能性。更多还原

【Abstract】 As Enron’s natural gas industry giant, because of fraudulent financial reporting issues came crashing down, shocked the world.With the establishment of China’s securities market in the country accounts for half the share of financial reporting fraud of listed manufacturing companies has become more prominent, harm the healthy and orderly development of China’s economy and society.Therefore, the problems caused by fraudulent financial reporting can not be ignored.Through the establishment of financial fraud identification model, the purpose is to provide suggestions to improve internal control, but also hope that the relevant regulatory authorities, certified public accountants and investors, improve the listed companies’ financial reporting fraud recognition rate reached to prevent financial reporting fraud occur, and reduce the risk of loss.Firstly, select 2006--2015 year due to the provision of false financial reports being punished China Securities Regulatory Commission listed manufacturing companies and 75 financial report 75 parts manufacturing listed companies’ financial reporting fraud does not occur as samples.Based on internal controls and fraud triangle theory, to find internal control framework can be elements of the internal control method for controlling, financial fraud from the general characteristics of pressure, opportunity and excuse to three aspects described, selected and non-financial indicators 18 financial indicators, through the use of the assignment method to assign non-financial information.Empirical analysis based,supplemented by theoretical analysis. Using paired samples T-test, correlation analysis and two Logistic regression statistical analysis as a means of identifying the 10 variables to identify significant manufacturing capacity of listed companies ’financial reporting fraud,identify fraud against the establishment of a manufacturing listed companies’ financial reports model.Combined with the status quo and Empirical results obtained by the information disclosure of listed companies from the perspective of internal controls, make policy recommendations to prevent financial reporting fraud:Improve the internal control environment, risk-assessment, developing risk prevention and response strategy to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of control activities, strengthen the timeliness and accuracy of information and communication, establish and improve internal oversight mechanisms.Because of its different industries in different circumstances, and therefore the same financial reporting fraud recognition model does not necessarily apply to all industries,Logistic regression model Aiming manufacturing in this industry, to build, it can better identify manufacturing listed company the possibility of financial reporting fraud.更多还原