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我国中西部城市商业银行脆弱性评价研究

The Fragility Assessment of the Central and West City Commercial Banks

【作者】 何晶

【导师】 许南;

【作者基本信息】 湖南师范大学 , 区域经济学, 2016, 硕士

【摘要】 银行体系是金融体系中最重要的组成部分,银行体系健康地发展对国民经济平稳增长具有至关重要的作用。但是全球范围的金融危机让我们看到了银行体系脆弱性的一面,而银行体系脆弱性正是爆发银行危机的前奏。城市商业银行的前身是20世纪80年代成立的城市信用社,经过十余年的发展,我国城市商业银行取得了显著的成就,甚至部分城商行的核心指标已接近或达到国际先进银行的平均水平。我国提出“西部大开发”、“中部崛起”和“一带一路”等一系列发展战略后,中西部地区城市商业银行不仅在推动这些战略实施上发挥了重要作用,在促进当地经济发展和帮助当地中小企业融资方面也起到关键作用。此外,由于我国的特殊国情,区域间经济发展存在显著差距,也造成了不同地区城市商业银行脆弱性的差异。在此背景下,对中西部地区城商行脆弱性状况进行研究是有必要的。本文选取了中西部地区18家城市商业银行进行脆弱性评价分析,样本涵盖华北、中南、西南、西北四个地区,能够代表中西部地区城商行的经营脆弱性现状。文章的主要内容包括:(1)介绍了中西部地区城市商业银行的发展历程及脆弱性现状,并归纳出我国中西部地区城市商业银行现阶段的发展新趋势;(2)分析了中部和西部地区城市商业银行脆弱性的内在原因和外在原因(3)运用因子分析法和灰色关联分析法评价分析了18家样本银行2008-2014年脆弱性状况;(4)针对实证结果,并结合成因分析,从不同角度提出了降低我国中西部城市商业银行脆弱性的对策建议。本文的主要结论为:(1)城市商业银行脆弱性因素既来源于银行内部因素,又与当地经济发展密切相关;(2)中西部城商行脆弱性主要表现在资产质量脆弱性、资本状况脆弱性、资本金补充压力、操作风险这四个层面;(3)北京银行、包商银行、洛阳银行排名相对靠前;长沙银行、徽商银行、重庆银行、成都银行、富滇银行排名处于中游;宁夏银行、兰州银行和青海银行排名长期处于末位。从整体结果来看,城市商业银行的脆弱性程度呈现出明显的地域差异,中部和西南部省会城市商业银行的脆弱性程度要低于西北部地区城市商业银行。

【Abstract】 The banking system is the most important part of the financial system, healthy development of banking system has a crucial role in promoting the steady growth of national economy. The global financial crisis let us see that the bank system is so fragile. The bank system fragility is a prelude to the banking crisis eruptions. City commercial banks are organized on the basis of urban credit cooperatives. Having developed for more than ten years, city commercial banks accomplished great achievements, and even some city commercial banks’ core indicators have been close to or reached the average level of the international advanced banks. In recent years, our country proposed some development, such as "Western development", "Rise of central China" and "The Belt and Road", the city commercial banks in the central and western regions played a key role in promoting local economic development, as well as helping local small and medium-sized enterprises financing. In addition, Because of the special situation of our country, there are significant differences in regional development, also caused the different of fragility status. In this context, it is necessary to research the fragility status of city commercial bank in the central and western regions.18 city commercial banks in the central and western regions are selected in this paper,the sample covers the north, South, southwest, northwest four regions, which is to representative fragility status of city commercial banks in the central and western regions. The main content is follows:(1) Introducing the development of the city commercial banks in the central and western areas, as well as the fragility status. And summed up it’s development path;(2) Analyzing the internal causes and external causes of the fragility of city commercial banks in the central and western regions;(3) Using factor analysis and gray correlation analysis method, evaluated and analyzed the fragility of 18 sample banks in 2008-2014;(4) According to the empirical results, and combined with the cause analysis, presents the countermeasures and suggestions to reduce the fragility of the city commercial banks in the central and Western China.The main conclusions are:(1)The fragility of city commercial banks is not only from the internal factors, but also closely related to the development of local economy;(2)the fragility of the central and western city commercial banks are mainly in the fragility of the asset quality, capital condition fragility, capital supplement pressure, and the operational risk four levels;(3)Bank of Beijing, Baoshang bank and Luoyang bank ranked by the front; bank of Changsha, Huishang bank,Bank of Chongqing, Bank of Chengdu, and Fudian bank ranked in the middle; Bank of Ningxia, bank of Lanzhou and bank of Qinghai ranking for a long time at the bottom. Overall view, the degree of fragility of city commercial banks show obvious regional differences, city commercial banks in the central and southwest regions is lower than the southwest region.

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