改进AHP-GIS模型在养老地产选址中的应用研究

【作者】 朱超；

【导师】 马慧；

【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 ， 产业经济学， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 随着老年人口逐年递增,老龄化日趋严重,我国已全面进入老龄化社会。与之相应的是,老年人群体的消费和服务需求缺口日益显著,越来越多的学者聚焦养老产业的发展和演变。在经济发展方式和资源合理配置迫切需要转型,供给侧结构性改革的大环境下,面临去库存的巨大压力,房地产行业改革转型迫在眉睫,这便使社会力量成为养老服务产业的主角,社会资本越来越多地注入到养老地产业的投资和开发领域。现有的涉及到养老地产的研究普遍是围绕养老项目开发所涉及的问题展开,缺乏目前“互联网+”产业和智能养老产业这些新鲜视角下的系统研究,对于诸如京津冀这样城市一体化战略格局下的指导性不强。所以,在目前互联网思维及智慧养老理念深入人心的条件下,对我国养老地产业的持续发展需要从新的视角进行重新梳理,进而探索出养老地产业可复制的发展模式和解决老龄化社会下老年人养老问题的方式。本文创新性的以基于层次分析法的综合集成算法和地理信息系统作为理论基础,构建保障性养老地产的选址模型,并以天津市津南区为例,来寻找适宜建设保障性养老地产的区域地块,以期为城市规划提供更直观的参考和借鉴。首先,利用Delphi法则建立评价指标体系,然后采用层次分析法(The Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)来确定老年人的养老服务需求对选址的影响因素,进而确定指标的准则权重,运用灰色模型计算灰色权值,最后结合Arc GIS的空间分析方法,设立影响保障性养老地产选址的因素的空间分析指标,采用缓冲区分析、栅格数据与矢量数据之间的转换操作以及加权叠加分析等空间分析工具得出适宜建设保障性养老地产的最佳地理位置。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the elderly population is increasing year by year, aging is becoming increasingly serious, our country has entered the aging society. Correspondingly, the elderly consumer groups and service demand gap is increasing, the development and evolution of more and more scholars focus on the pension industry. In the mode of economic development and rational allocation of resources in urgent need of transformation, the supply side structural reform of the environment, faces enormous pressure to the inventory, the real estate industry reform is imminent, it will make the social forces pension services industry to become the protagonist, more and more social capital is invested in the investment and development in the field of pension industry. The recent researches related to the pension real estate are generally focused on the development of pension project. However, those researches are all with the lack of the "Internet plus" industry and intelligent pension industry which are under a fresh and new perspective. It is known that Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are in an urban pattern integration strategy, but all those former researches are within the strong guidance and cannot serve for this integration strategy. On one hand, people all with the internet think, on the other hand, the concept of wisdom endowment is deeply rooted among people. Under such a condition,it is need to rearrange the sustainable development of real estate industry of our country endowment from a new perspective. In this way, it is possible find a way to solve the problem of aging society under the old endowment.In this paper, the innovative integrated algorithm based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and geographic information system as the theoretical basis, to build affordable pension site selection model of real estate. Take Jinnan District in Tianjin as an example, to find a suitable building affordable endowment real estate area of land, First of all, using the Delphi law to establish the evaluation index system, then use the AHP(The Analytic Hierarchy Process, The AHP) to determine the elderly pension service demand of the influence factors of site selection, and then determine the criterion index weight, calculate the grey weight with grey model, the combination of Arc and GIS spatial analysis methods, the establishment of influencing factors the location of the pension estate security index by spatial analysis, buffer analysis, conversion of raster data and vector data between the operation and the weighted superposition analysis of spatial analysis tools that are suitable for the construction to ensure the best location of the pension real estate.更多还原