【作者】 张宁；

【导师】 殷德生；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 金融学， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 中国经济经过近四十年的高速增长,经济总量已经稳居全球第二位,人均GDP也已迈入中等收入国家水平。取得非凡成就的同时还需看到,经济增速连续五年走低,产能过剩、资源环境压力大、有效需求不足等被频繁提及,表明中国经济进入了一种“新常态”。高速增长中积累的矛盾已经愈发突出,结构性扭曲越发严峻,切实转变经济发展方式,进行经济结构战略性调整成为中国经济的主题。金融作为现代经济的核心,与实体经济息息相关,而货币政策作为金融政策的重要手段,对经济结构调整也产生了深刻的影响。因此,本文试图基于历史数据实证研究货币政策促进经济结构调整的效果。本文首先总结了前人的成果,并在此基础上形成了本文的研究框架；进而阐述了相关理论,探讨了货币政策影响经济结构的作用机制；随后回顾了我国经济结构调整的历程与货币政策变动；在后半章节,本文选取产业结构高级化指标、产业结构合理化指标和需求结构高级化指标代表经济结构的三个维度,选取利率、汇率和信贷规模代表货币政策的作用机制,利用31省市相关数据,分别构建固定效应面板模型进行实证分析,在前人研究的基础上取得了延伸性的结论。实证结果发现：(1)在本文的研究时间范围即2000-2013年间,利率提升对不同样本的产业结构高级化均有正向影响；对产业结构合理化与需求结构高级化也有正向影响,但都是在沿海地区不显著。(2)汇率上升有利于产业结构向高级化发展,原因归结为贸易部门与非贸易部门的区别以及产业间要素密集度的不同；但汇率上升对产业结构合理化的影响为负面,这与第三产业对劳动力的吸收程度以及我国的经济发展阶段有关；汇率提升对三个样本的需求结构高级化都有正向影响。(3)信贷规模上升对产业结构调整有正向影响,由于作用机制的内在差异,这与利率影响并不矛盾；信贷对需求结构高级化的影响普遍不显著。本文在最后给出了相关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 After nearly four decades of rapid growth, China’s economy has made remarkable achievements. The total economy has been ranked second in the world, per capita GDP has also entered the middle-income countries. Though extraordinary achievements has made, we also need to see that the economic growth rate has been falling for five consecutive years. Excess capacity, resources and environment pressure, insufficient effective demand has been frequently mentioned, indicating that China’s economy has entered a usual different "new normal." We have found that rapid growth in the accumulated contradictions have become more prominent, more and more severe distortions in economic structures. Thus, effectively change the mode of economic development and economic strategic restructuring have been China’s economy theme. As the core of modern economy, finance are closely related to the real economy. Monetary policy as an important means of monetary policy on economic restructuring has also had a profound impact. Therefore, this article attempts to empirical study of monetary policy to promote economic structural adjustment results based on historical data.This paper summarizes the results of previous studies, and on this basis, forms a research framework; further elaborated theories on economic structure and monetary policy, discusses the impact of the economic structure of the monetary policy mechanism; then reviewed our economy restructuring course and monetary policy changes. In the second half sections of this paper, we selected indicators rationalization of industrial structure, the three dimensions of Industrial Structure indicators and indicators of demand for high-class structure representative of the economic structure, selected interest rates, exchange rates and the size of credit on behalf of monetary policy mechanism. In this paper, the relevant data in 31 provinces were constructed fixed effect panel model empirical analysis, on the basis of previous studies made on extending conclusions. The empirical results show as follows. (1) In time the scope of this study, namely 2000--2013 years, rising interest rates have a positive impact on different samples of Industrial Structure; also has a positive impact on the rationalization of the industrial structure and demand structure of high-class, but they are not in coastal areas significant. (2) The exchange rate is conducive to the development of the industrial structure to high grade, attributed the difference between the industry and the different factor intensity of the business sector and non-trade sector; but the exchange rate on the rationalization of the industrial structure is negative, which is the third industry labor the extent of absorption and stage of economic development of China’s relevant; the exchange rate to enhance demand for high-class structure has three samples positive impact. (3) Rising credit scale has a positive impact on the industrial structure adjustment, due to the inherent differences in the mechanism, which is not in contradiction with the impact of interest rates; the impact on credit demand Structure Upgrade generally not significant. Finally, this paper relevant policy recommendations.更多还原