【作者】 魏巍；

【导师】 张克斌； 时忠杰； 尤万学；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 林业硕士（专业学位）， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 基于京津风沙源区58个气象站点日气温和日降水量记录,本文分析了该区域自1960到2014年的平均气温、平均降水量、极端气温和极端降水的时空变化情况。应用MK检验、Sen’s趋势率估计、均值法和最小二乘回归侦测气候一般因子和极端气候指数随时间的变化趋势和趋势率。结果显示：1. 平均气温和极端气温都表现出变暖趋势；平均降水量在年尺度上减少,四季表现为春增夏减秋增冬减,极端降水指数除SDII变化微弱,其余指数表现为下降趋势。年尺度上,除TXx以外,极端温度指数均呈显著变暖；RX1day, RX5day, R99p表现为显著减少,其余极端降水指数变化并不明显,说明京津风沙源区降水量的减少,是降水强度和极端降水量的共同减少所致。2. 就空间分布来看,除河北承德外,其余站点年均温、春夏均温都呈上升趋势,研究区所有站点秋冬两季气温上升,并且呈显著上升趋势的站点的冬温上升率最大,夏温上升率最小,春秋两季均温上升率相近。区域年降水量、季节降水量和极端降水指数仅在少数站点呈显著变化。山西五台山和吉林长岭两个站点年降水量呈显著减少,春季降水量呈显著上升趋势的站点位于研究区的东南部,夏季降水量呈显著减少的站点位于研究区的中部和东南部,秋季降水量仅在北京显著增加,在山西五台山显著减少,冬季降水量呈显著增加的站点位于研究区的西南和东北部,而仅在山西五台山呈显著减少。3.极端降水频次(R10、R20、R25)在山西五台山、内蒙翁旗、河北怀来和丰宁、宁夏银川显著减少,在河北蔚县和山西五寨显著增加；极端降水强度(RXlday、 RX5day, SDII)在研究区东部显著减少,在内蒙东乌珠穆沁旗、山西兴县和原平显著增加；持续湿润期(CWD)在内蒙林西及锡林浩特、山西五台山、河北蔚县显著缩短；持续干旱期(CDD)呈显著缩短趋势的站点分散于内蒙古的四子王旗、达茂旗、乌兰浩特和开鲁,呈显著延长趋势的站点位于山西五台山、内蒙化德；极端降水量(R95p、R99p)在北京、河北怀来和丰宁、内蒙翁旗、宝国图、呼和浩特、吉兰太以及吉林长岭显著减少,而仅在宁夏银川显著增加；有效降水总量(PRCPTOT)在山西五台山和吉林长岭呈显著减少,这与年降水量空间分布相同。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on daily temperature and precipitation records in the Beijing-Tianjin sand source region (BTSSR), the spatial and temporal distribution of mean temperature, mean precipitation, extreme temperature and extreme precipitation were analzed during 1960 to 2014. The MK trend test. Sen’s slope. Mean method and Least Squares regression were utilized to detect monotonic trends and magnitudes of general climatic factors and extreme climate index. The results obtained indicate:1. Both the mean temperature and the extremes have been warming; mean annual precipitation has decreased, while seasonal precipitation change differently:increase in spring and autumn, and decrease in summer and winter, and the extreme precipitation index in addition to SDⅡ have decreased. On an annual basis, the extreme temperature indices have significantly warmed except for TXx. RX1day、 RXSday and R99p have significantly decreased, while the other extreme precipitation indices do not change obviously which suggests that the precipitation decrease in the BTSSR is due to the decrease in both precipitation intensity and amount of extreme precipitation.2. In terms of spatial distribution, the annual mean temperature, spring and summer mean temperature rise in all stations in addition to Chengde, Hebei. Mean temperature in autumn and winter rise in all stations. And the rising rate of temperature is maximum in winter and minimum in summer, while the rising rate of temperature is similar in spring and autumn in the stations where temperature rose significantly. Regional annual precipitation, seasonal precipitation and extreme precipitation index show significant changes in a few stations. The annual precipitation reduce significantly at Wutaishan of Shanxi and Changling of Jilin. The spring precipitation show a significant upward trend in the stations locating in the southeast of the study area. The precipitation in summer decrease significantly in the central and southeastern part of the study area. Autumn precipitation increase significantly only in Wutaishan of Shanxi, and significantly reduce in Beijing. Winter precipitation show a significant increase in the stations locating in the southwest and northeast of the study area, but significantly reduced only in Wutaishan of Shanxi.3. The frequency of extreme precipitation(R10、R20、R25) has significantly decreased at Wutaishan of Shanxi、Ongniud Banner of Inner Mongolia、Huailai and Fengning of HeBei and Yinchuan of Ningxia, while significantly increased at Weixian of HeBei and Wuzhai of Shanxi. The extreme precipitation intensity(RX1day、RX5day、SDⅡ) has significantly decreased in the eastern part of the study area, while significantly increased at East Ujimain of Inner Mongolia, Xingxian and Yuanping of Shanxi. CWD has significantly shortened at Linxi and Xilin Hot of Inner Mongolia, Wutaishan of Shanxi and Weixian of HeBei; CDD has significantly shortened at Siziwang Banner, Mau Banner, Ulanhot and Kailu of Inner Mongolia, while significantly extended at Wutaishan of Shanxi and Huade of Inner Mongolia; the amount of extreme precipitation(R95p、R99p) has significantly decreased at Beijing, Huailai and Fengning of HeBei, Ongniud Banner、Hollyhock, Jartai and Baoguotu of Inner Mongolia and Changling of Jili, while significantly increased in Yinchuan of Ningxia. PRCPTOT has significantly decreased at Wutaishan of Shanxi and Changling of Jilin, which is similar to the spatial distribution of mean annual precipitation.更多还原