【作者】 李建中；

【导师】 王文平；

【作者基本信息】 东南大学 ， 工商管理， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 环境问题的日益加重,要求新能源汽车储能技术更好、更快的发展。新能源汽车储能技术,对于创新性有很高的要求,但是创新同时也就意味着风险。本论文对新能源汽车中,所应用的储能技术创新及风险管理进行研究。论文系统地从研究背景、文献调研、新能源汽车储能技术创新内涵、新能源汽车储能技术创新风险的特征分析和识别等多方面进行分析,对实际情况利用模糊分析法对新能源汽车储能技术创新风险进行了评估,并提出了对应的风险控制措施。论文经过系统的研究和分析,得到了以下针对性的结果,对本行业会有一定的借鉴意义。1)采用风险管理,对于目前的新能源汽车储能技术创新来说是一个比较好的措施和手段,具有一定的实际应用价值。2)通过分析储能技术创新内涵,阐述了产业技术的起源阶段、低谷阶段,产业的首次爆发性发展以及未来的不可预见性,说明了新能源储能汽车储能技术的创新及发展并不是一帆风顺,未来仍然充满了变数和不确定性。3)对新能源汽车储能技术创新而言,财务风险、能力风险、政策风险、市场风险是基础技术创新风险主要来源,产业风险则是基础创新风险的延续。4)通过文献调研,分析了新能源汽车储能技术创新的发展情况和关注度,得到锂电池技术是目前新能源汽车绝对核心技术的结论。但也说明仍然存在着未来的潜在产业竞争,要防止产业替代风险。5)通过产业问卷调研,利用模糊分析法得出目前新能源汽车产业整体属于一般风险和较高风险之间,说明行业持乐观态势。6)提出了财务风险因素中的融资风险控制和防止资金链断裂的措施。提出了政策风险因素中预防和控制环保风险、安全风险、区域政策风险、突发因素风险以及宏观政策风险的措施。提出了能力风险因素中如何去应对开发能力不足、产业化失败、应用效果低于预期以及知识产权壁垒的措施。提出了市场风险因素中的产品定位风险、产品质量风险、产品价格风险、产品销售风险以及同类产品替代风险的控制措施。提出了产业风险因素中的产业替代风险、产业定位风险以及产业技术瓶颈风险的控制措施。7)研究提出,产业技术瓶颈是新能源汽车储能技术创新风险的一个非常重要的因素,需要重点进行防范。更多还原

【Abstract】 As environmental pollution becoming seriously, we need even better development to improve energy storage technology in the New Energy Automobile Industry. The energy storage technology has a high demand for innovation, but each innovation process combines risks.In the present work, venture capital evaluation is investigated for energy storage technology in the New Energy Automobile Industry. The thesis studied the background, literature review, innovation connotation, features analysis and identification of innovation risks, and then evaluated the risks via Fuzzy Evaluation Model. Finally, the thesis proposes some risk management measures for energy storage technology innovation in the New Energy Automobile Industry.Some risk management measures have been obtained via systematic venture capital evaluation. The measures will have some benefits for energy storage technology innovation in the New Energy Automobile Industry.1) Venture capital evaluation is a practical way for energy storage technology innovation in the New Energy Automobile Industry.2) The work analyzed innovation connotation of energy storage technology, and expounded the initial period, trough stage, the first rapid increasing period and unpredictable future period for energy storage technology. The results show that the innovation and development for energy storage technology in the New Energy Automobile Industry is not roses all the way, but has various risks.3) The Financial Risk, Capacity Risk, Policy Risk, Marketing Risk are the basic risks, and then the Industry Risk is the follow-up risk for energy storage technology innovation in the New Energy Automobile Industry.4) Analyzing the development of energy storage technology in the New Energy Automobile Industry via literature review, the results indicate that Lithium Battery is the core technology for New Energy Automobile Industry at present. The results also present that there has potential industrial competition to Lithium Battery technology, and we must prevent the industrial substitution risks.5) Through summarizing the industrial questionnaire survey, and then analyzing the data via Fuzzy Evaluation Model, the results show that the risks of New Energy Automobile Industry are between normal risk and higher risk.6) The work presents such risk management measures for energy storage technology innovation, they are, financing and capital chain rupture risk management measures for Financing Risks; environmental protection, security, regional policy, sudden factor and macro policy risk management measures for Policy Risks; inadequate development ability, industrial failure, application effect is lower than expected and intellectual property barriers risk management measures for Capacity Risks; product positioning, product quality, product price, product sales, and substitution of similar products risk management measures for Marketing Risks; industrial substitution, industrial positioning, and industrial technology bottleneck risk management measures for Industry Risks.7) Here the results indicate a key point, that industrial technology bottleneck is must to be taken strict precautions against, because it is the most important risk for energy storage technology innovation in the New Energy Automobile Industry.更多还原