【作者】 陈晨；

【导师】 范立夫；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 金融学， 2016， 硕士

【副题名】基于中央银行资产负债表的视角

【摘要】 我国在推动利率市场化进程中,不断涌现的金融创新弱化了货币供应量的可控性和可测性,使其不再适合继续作为中介目标,数量型货币政策调控模式的问题越来越突出。外汇占款大幅增长的态势不再,且近5年来外汇占款增速持续低于强力货币,所以中央银行当务之急是开辟新的流动性投放途径,完善创新货币政策工具,探寻常规的流动性投放途径,进而推动货币政策调控模式从数量型转向价格型的转轨。货币政策调控模式从数量型向价格型的转轨并不是一蹴而就的,而是通过逐阶段调整货币政策中介目标并配以不同的货币政策工具操作,是一种渐进性的转变。随着美国利率市场化的推进,美联储历史上曾经出现过由数量型向价格型货币政策调控模式的转轨。1979年10月至1982年10月,美联储为反“滞胀”将货币供应量作为中介目标,主要通过公开市场工具来调整非借入准备金,导致联邦基金利率出现了相当大的波动。1982年10月至1993年7月,为了恢复经济活力,美联储尝试以借入准备金作为中介目标,综合使用公开市场工具和调整再贴现率,以保证联邦基金利率的相对稳定。1993年至今,联邦基金利率成为了货币政策的中介目标,美联储利用公开市场操作并搭配使用各种创新型货币政策工具调控市场的流动性,逐步引领着美国经济的复苏与发展。本文之所以通过美联储历史上这一段时期资产负债表的变化来窥探货币政策转型过程中货币政策工具的操作,是因为央行资产负债表是观察货币政策操作的有效窗口,可从如下两点来论证：一是央行资产负债表变动与货币政策工具操作之间具有逻辑关系。每一次货币政策工具的实施,恰恰是一种资产负债表业务,都能充分体现在央行的资产和负债变化之中。本文正是利用央行资产负债表与央行货币政策操作之间这种对应关系进行替代分析,以判断出货币政策工具的具体操作方式。二是不同货币政策工具与不同货币政策调控之间具有对应关系。数量型货币政策调控模式,以货币供应量作为中介目标,主要运用存款准备金率和公开市场操作等货币政策工具影响强力货币和货币乘数,通过货币供给端的调整实现货币政策最终目标。价格型货币政策调控模式以利率等价格型变量作为中介目标,主要是通过公开市场操作和贴现率调整,通过改变利率来影响货币的总需求量,从而实现货币政策最终目标。货币政策调控工具是央行资产负债表和货币政策调控模式之间的桥梁。通过观察央行资产负债表在特定时间背景下的变动,可以一定程度上反映出央行货币政策调控工具的操作意图,从而反映出货币政策调控的特定模式。本文一共分为五部分。第一部分为绪论。第二部分为货币政策调控模式的相关理论,介绍了货币政策调控模式理论,并重点解释了央行资产负债表是观察货币政策调控的有效窗口,为全文逻辑框架构建的基石。第三部分为从央行资产负债表的视角对美联储货币政策调控模式演变进行分析,分为数量型、数量型向价格型过渡以及价格型货币政策调控模式三个阶段,分别从资产负债表中资产项和负债项的相对变化窥探出货币政策调控工具的操作。通过资产负债表变化的实证分析,发现公开市场操作一直都是美联储最重要的货币政策工具,在货币政策调控模式转轨过程中,短期国债持有量逐渐赶超中长期国债,存款准备金率调整的利用率则越来越低。在数量型向价格型过渡期间,再贴现率的调整获得了美联储的重用。同样体现出了不同的货币政策工具操作特点对应于不同的货币政策调控模式。第四部分为中国中央银行数量型货币政策调控分析,首先解释了中美央行资产负债表结构不同反映的中美货币政策调控模式的差异,试图探寻未来我国央行资产负债表的调整方向；其次从央行资产负债表的视角对中国央行数量型货币政策调控模式进行分析,通过比较动态分析发现政府债券库存少和持有结构不合理,畸高的准备金存量等数量型货币政策调控特点；最后说明了中国央行货币政策调控模式转轨的必然性。第五部分为对中国中央银行货币政策调控转轨的启示,如逐步增加国债库存,优化国债持有结构；加大现券交易买卖力度;适度增加SLO等创新工具的操作频率；培育以Shibor为短期利率的基准利率体系；适时调整SLF利率,与基准利率保持较稳定的利差；逐步降低法定存款准备金率至正常化水平;进一步完善差别存款准备金制度等。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the course of promoting the marketization of interest rates and under the modification mode of quantitative monetary policy in China, the controllability, scalability and relevance of monetary supplies as the inter-target selections are significantly weakened by the financial innovation.In the recent five years, the foreign exchanges never rockets as before, the central bank is not passively required to put tons of base currency and hence should fully take the golden opportunity of the transformation of the mode of monetary policy modification and invent or chose the appropriate, regular and current placement tool. Based on the background and in the course of marketization of interest rates, the primary task of the monetary authorities of China is currently to construct the system of the benchmark interest rate, to perfect and innovate the tools of monetary policy so as to build the modification frame system of price-based policy.The shift of the modification mode from quantity-based monetary policy to price-based one is not built in a day, but is a progressive change, which gradually adjusts the monetary policy as the inter-target and is accompanied by diverse tools of currency polices. A case in point happens right in American history. The Fed, from October,1979 to October,1982, placed the monetary supplies as the inter-target to fight against the stagflation. It mainly adjusted the non-borrowed reserves by publicizing the market tools and later resulted in the considerable fluctuation of federal funds rates. From October,1982 to July,1993, recovering the economy,Fed tried to regard borrow reserves as inter-targets, comprehensively utilized the tools of market and adjusted the rates of rediscount, ensuring the relative stability of federal funds rates. Fed, since 1993, has placed the federal funds rates as the inter-targets, adjusting the market flow and increasingly leading the recovery and development of American economy by publicizing market measures and collectively used a variety of innovative tools of monetary policy.The reasons why this paper probes the implementation of tools of monetary policy during the course of transformation of currency polices through the changes of balance sheet in the history of Fed consist of two points. Firstly, the shift from quantity-based polices that place currency supplies as inter-targets to price-based currency polices that place price variables as the inter-targets, in essence, is the shit of inter-targets of monetary policies. Secondly, every implementation of currency polices is rightly a kind of business of balance sheet, which can be fully exemplified in the changes of properties and balances of central bank. This paper analyzes the monetary policies by utilizing the correspondence between the balance sheet and implementation of currency polices of central bank, so as to judge the specific mode of practices of monetary policy tools. Through the changes of programs of the balance sheets, it also distinguishes the utilizing frequency of monetary policies operation and detailed currency polices tools, purses the background of tools operations and causes of resulting in the differences.The structure of this paper mainly consists of five parts. The first part is introduction. The second part introduces the related monetary policy theory and elaborates that the central bank’s balance sheet is a window of monetary policies operation. The third part divides the Fed’s shift from quantity-based to price-based monetary policies during the eighties and nineties of twentieth century into three periods:before during and after the transitions, which collectively probes the emphasis as to how to use tools of monetary policies and currency polices through the relative chances of properties and debts of balance sheet. It figures out that the publication of market operations has been the most vital tools of monetary policies for Fed. However, the remaining structure of securities and the rates of rediscount during each period had been greatly changed. This policy was primarily utilized by Fed during the transition period. The fourth part is the analysis of quantity-based monetary policy. Firstly, make a contrast of balance sheet of central bank between China and America, which can vividly show the difference of the type of monetary policies. Second part is the reflect of PBOC’s balance sheet beneath the quantity-based monetary policy. At last, elaborate the certainties of the transition of monetary policy mode in PBOC. The fifth part is the enlightenment for PBOC’s transition of monetary policy operation based on the Fed’s experience. The suggestions are as follows, like gradually increasing the amount of national debt holdings; moderately rising the intensity of spot trading transactions; increasing the frequency of operating other innovative tools like SLO; adjusting SLF interest rates to the benchmark interest rate; enriching the evaluation system of different reserve system and so forth.更多还原