【作者】 张媛媛；

【导师】 王来福；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 投资经济， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 城市化是指农村人口、资本及其他各种经济要素向城市流动,推动城市建设和经济发展,为城市带来一系列社会变化的过程,是传统劳动生活方式向现代化劳动与生活方式的转化。城市化的进程中必然带来人口向城市聚集、城乡人口结构的变化、城市人口收入的增长、流动性增加和对房地产刚性、改善性和投资投机需求,以及土地供给面积、投资规模大小、施工时间长短、当年竣工率等因素对房地产供给的影响,最终都会反映在房地产市场的供需关系上,进而影响房价的走势及房地产的结构和均衡。此外,房地产还是一种与土地相连的特殊商品,土地资源的稀缺性、有限性和垄断性导致其与其他商品相比较供给弹性小,使得地价及房价格的上涨常常要快于一般商品的价格。目前我国的房地产业仍存在着房地产价格增长过快,房地产结构不合理,供求关系扭曲,住房空置率高,房地产企业野蛮扩张带来的资源浪费等问题。特别是随着前期房地产供给野蛮增长,目前房地产行业由过热进入冷静期,房地产行业的矛盾也由供求矛盾及价格矛盾向消化库存的矛盾发生转变。如何消化目前大量的存量房,解决房地产企业资金链断流的难题,是当前房地产研究的热点。可以采取的方法包括政府统一购买转化为保障房、提高房地产企业管理水平向公寓式租房转变、加大房屋周边基础设施及环境建设提高房屋利用率等等。但是从长远的角度看,有利于房地产企业的健康发展的办法在于提高房屋供给质量,开拓房地产需求,减少易形成泡沫的投机性需求,发展房地产的居住需求。城市化作为人口流向城镇的自然现象,自然对城市开发房地产需求,消化房地产库存是一大机遇。本文从城市化与房地产存量的关系进行研究,对我国城市化进程中人口城市化及土地城市化的这两个方面对房地产库存的不同影响,结合关键变量房价做VAR模型分析。变量选取了1997年至2013年全国待开发土地面积、全国商品房销售价格、城镇人口占总人口比重、房地产库存比这四个变量,用全国待开发土地面积作为土地城市化指标,用全国商品房销售价格作为人口城市化指标,房地产库存比作为房地产存量指标,全国商品房销售价格作为引入的关键变量。通过ADF平稳性分析,得到四个指标在一阶差分的情况下是平稳的。通过Granger因果分析,得到四变量之间在一定的置信度下存在因果关系,这为模型的建设提供了理论支持。通过LR(似然比)检验方法和信息准则,即AIC准则和SC准则,以及Harman-Quinn(HQ)准则和最后预测误差FPE得到滞后期数为2,最终数据处理为一阶差分,滞后2期的四项指标。通过VAR模型得到整个人口城市化、土地城市化、房价及房地产库存的关系。通过脉冲响应及方差分解得出结论：1、人口城市化对房地产库存的影响在短期和长期都有明显作用。2、土地城市化对房地产库存也有影响,但影响不及人口城市化明显,进一步说明消化房地产库存的政策制定更应侧重开发需求方面。3、房价对房地产库存的作用规律性较小,二者之间并不存在提高房价房地产库存就会增加的必然关系。相应的政策建议为1、改变城市化路径,加快推进中小城市协调发展,释放中长期购房需求。2、控制土地城市化速度,完善土地制度,优化土地管理。3、房地产企业改变粗放式发展,创新管理模式,实现多元化战略及产业转型。4、政府调控加大二三线城市产业导入,完善基础设施,降低住房空置率。5、积极拓展消化存量房的其他途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urbanization refers to the rural population, capital and other kinds of economic factors flow to urban fields so that promoting urban construction and economic developments as long as a series of social changes in the process. It also contains the traditional way of life and work change to the modern style. The process of urbanization is bound to bring the population to urban areas, urban and rural population structure’s change and the growth of urban population income, increasing the mobility and rigidity of real estate and improving investment and speculative demand. In addition, land supply amount, investment scale, construction time, the completion rate and other factors affect the supply and demand in the real estate market, and then affect the trend and real estate structure. Real estate is a special industry linked to land so the scarcity of land resources, limited and monopoly of the supply of land, which makes the price of land and housing prices higher than the general price of goods.Real estate industry still has some problems such as the real estate prices rising too fast, the real estate structure is irrational, housing vacancy rate is too high, the expansion of the real estate industry has brought the waste of resources and other issues. Especially with the growth of economy, the current real estate industry is already from the overheated period into the cool period, and the real estate industry’s contradiction is from the supply and demand change to digesting the inventory. How to digest the large stock of the housing and solve the problem of the real estate enterprise funds chain flow is the focus of current real estate research. Some effective methods are the government unified purchase into the protection of housing, improve the management level of real estate enterprises to the apartment style and increase the housing infrastructure and environmental construction to improve the utilization rate of housing, etc. But from a long-term perspective, a good method is to improve the quality of housing supply, developing long-term real estate demand and reducing the speculative demand. As a natural phenomenon of the population flow to the town, the urban development is a big opportunity to digest to real estate inventory.This paper explains the relationship between urbanization and real estate, the two aspects of urbanization have the different effects on real estate inventory, combined with the key variables to make VAR model analysis. Variables selected from 1997 to 2013 includes the national development of land area, the national commercial housing sales prices, the proportion of the total population of urban population and real estate inventory ratio. Use the country to develop land area as a land urbanization indicators, the national commercial housing sales prices as the index of real estate stocks, the national commercial housing sales price is a key variable. Through ADF analysis, the four indexes are stable in the first order difference. Through the Granger causality analysis, there is a causal relationship between the four variables, which provides theoretical support for the construction of the model. By LR (likelihood ratio) test method and information criterion, AIC criterion and SC criterion, and Harman-Quinn (HQ) criterion and final prediction error FPE, the lag period is 2,and the final data processing is the first order difference, and the lag phase four is 2. Through the VAR model, the relationship between the whole population urbanization, land urbanization, housing prices and real estate inventory is obtained.Through the impulse response and variance decomposition, the conclusion are: 1, the impact of population urbanization on real estate stocks in the short term and long term have a significant role.2,land urbanization on the real estate stocks also have an impact, but the impact is less than the population urbanization, further indicating the real estate inventory policy should focus on the development of the need.3,the role of real estate on the real estate inventory is small, there is no room for the increase in real estate prices will increase the inevitable relationship between the two, but in the long term, the real estate prices in the real estate stock changes have a greater impact. The corresponding policy recommendations are:1,change the path of urbanization, and accelerate the coordinated development of small and medium cities to release of long-term housing needs.2,control the speed of land urbanization, improve the land system, and optimize land management.3,real estate enterprises have to change the extensive development to achieve diversification strategy and industrial restructuring.4,government should make regulation to increase the two or three line of urban industry import, improve infrastructure and reduce housing vacancy rate.5,actively expand other ways to digest the real estate inventory.更多还原