闭环供应链中牛鞭效应的系统动力学研究

【作者】 刘云；

【导师】 钟永光；

【作者基本信息】 青岛大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济的迅猛发展,人们的消费观念发生巨大的改变,电子废弃物数量也不断增加,人类社会发展与环境之间的矛盾日益凸显出来,并呈现出逐步扩大的趋势,而随着“生产者责任延伸制”愈加成熟,如何对废弃产品进行有效的回收利用,是我们所面临的巨大考验,为了将人与环境的矛盾降到最小,走人口、资源、环境与社会相互促进协调发展的可持续发展道路,人们开始重新思考传统的供应链模式,闭环供应链也应运而生,它是由供应商、制造商、分销商、零售商、消费者以及回收商所构成的一个极其复杂的网络结构,针对闭环供应链的复杂性这一特点,本文运用系统动力学建模,从定性分析和定量仿真的角度对其进行仿真研究。论文首先分析了逆向物流、闭环供应链以及牛鞭效应等的特征,确立运用系统动力学建模的目的,通过假设条件来简化模型,以便突出研究问题;其次,针对闭环供应链系统进行系统动力学仿真模拟,并对其进行有效性检验,确定模型的现实有效性;最后,通过对模型进行不同情境下的模拟仿真,分析改变废旧产品的回收比例会对正向供应链产生怎样的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of economy, people’s consumption concept has occur a lot of change, the number of electronic waste is also increasing, the contradiction between the development of human society and the environment has become increasingly prominent, and this trend showed gradually expanding, and with the development of“Extended producer responsibility system”, the most important test we have faces is how to effectively waste products recycling. To the contradiction between man and environment to a minimum, we should take the population, resources, environment and social mutual promotion and coordinated development sustainable development, people began to rethink the traditional supply chain model, the closed-loop supply chain also came into being, it is an extremely complex network structure consisting of suppliers,manufacturers, distributors, retailers, consumers and recyclers. To the characteristic of the complexity of closed loop supply chain, this paper uses system dynamics modeling to simulation research on it from the angle of qualitative analysis and quantitative simulation.Firstly, this paper analyzes the characteristics of reverse logistics, closed-loop supply chain, bullwhip effect and so on, establishes the purpose of the system dynamics modeling, and highlights the research problems through simplify the model in assuming condition, so as to highlight the research problems; secondly, the analogue simulation of the closed-loop supply chain system to the system dynamics, and it is proceeded with validity check to ensure the reality effectiveness of model; finally, analysis the change of ratio of recycling waste products will produce what kind of impact on the forward supply chain under the analogue simulation of different scenarios of model.更多还原