【作者】 高航；

【导师】 苗建军；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 中国城市化的快速推进,一定程度上造成大量的农业用地转为建设用地,加剧了人地矛盾。面对这样的现实,如何加强土地资源管理,实现土地资源节约集约利用?改善土地管理的依据是什么?因此,有必要测算农地非农化效率。农地非农化与城市空间格局调整以及人口、劳动力、产业结构的城市化密切相关,本文致力于将其纳入一个统一的系统之中。论文以效率为切入点,利用管理科学工具对中国农地非农化的效率测算和驱动因素进行了重点研究,主要工作和结论体现在以下三个方面。(1)基于定量方法分析了中国农地非农化的具体历程和驱动因素。首先利用相对变化率测算了各省耕地和建设用地的变动情况。然后利用LMDI方法对农地非农化的驱动因素进行分解分析,测算了产出、结构和效率三个因素对农地非农化的影响,实证结果发现中国农地非农化的主要驱动因素是产出的增长,效率因素有一定的抵减作用,结构调整在现阶段对农地非农化的影响是负面的。最后利用STIRPAT模型分析了人口、富裕度和产业结构三个因素对农地非农化的影响,实证结果表明人口因素对农地非农化呈正相关影响,而富裕度和产业结构对其则呈负相关影响。(2)基于TOPSIS方法分析了中国农业用地和建设用地的综合利用效率。对农地利用效率的测算表明,东部地区的农地利用效率要高于其他地区,这说明东部地区农地非农化的机会成本可能大于其他地区。对建设用地综合利用效率的测算表明是否考虑人口承载因素将会对各地的建设用地利用效率产生较大的影响。(3)基于DEA模型测算了城市化进程中农地非农化的效率。首先利用CCR模型测算只考虑经济产出条件下各省的农地非农化效率。然后测算考虑人口承载因素条件下的农地非农化效率。最后引入农地非农化机会成本的概念,将其作为一项约束,构建考虑非期望产出的SBM-DEA效率测算模型,对考虑机会成本条件下的农地非农化效率进行测算。分析各个地区的效率排名在三个阶段中的差距,发现在考虑机会成本之后,东部地区的农地非农化效率优势有所抵减。分省区对效率测算结果进行评价,给出改进建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the acceleration of urbanization, lots of agricultural lands have been transformed into construction lands. The fierce conflict between population and lands in China requires more strengthen management so as to use lands resources more efficiency, it is important to evaluate the efficiency of farmland conversion. The lands’ urbanization is closely linked to the urbanization of labor、population and industrial structure, this thesis tries to take them into a unified system.This thesis takes efficiency measure as a starting point, use instruments of management science to measure the efficiency and analyze the driving factors of farmland conversion of it. The main research work and conclusions include the following aspects:(1)First review the history of the farmland conversion of China. Then use LMDI to make decomposition analysis of the driving factors of farmland conversion, calculate the influence of output effect、structural effect and efficiency effect to farmland conversion. The empirical results indicate that output effect is the main driving factors of farmland conversion, efficiency effect has an offset effect and structural effect has a negative impact on land use efficiency. At last use STIRPAT model to analyze the effects of population、affluence and industrial structure. The results indicate that population has a positive effect on the farmland conversion while affluence and industrial structure have negative effects on it.(2) Use TOPSIS to measure the comprehensive utility efficiency of farmland and construction land. It shows that the comprehensive utility efficiency of farmland of Eastern China is higher than that of other parts of China; this means the opportunity cost of farmland conversion of Eastern China is higher than other regions. The comprehensive utility efficiency of construction land is quite different after take population into consideration than not; this indicates that it is necessary to consider population as an important indicator.(3)Use DEA to measure the efficiency of farmland conversion. First use CCR model to evaluate the efficiency that not considered population, then the efficiency considered population, at last propose the concept of opportunity cost of farmland conversion, take it as a constraint to build a SBM-DEA model based on undesirable outputs to evaluate the efficiency of farmland conversion which takes the opportunity cost into consideration. Analyze the difference among the three stages and find that while considering opportunity cost, the efficiency of farmland conversion of Eastern China becomes lower. Lastly, give suggestions to improve the efficiency of farmland conversion.更多还原