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基于证据推理的空冷机组能效评价方法研究

Research on Energy Efficiecy Evaluating of Air-cooled Power Plant Based on Evidential Reasoning

【作者】 苏烨

【导师】 董玉亮;

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 , 动力机械及工程, 2015, 硕士

【摘要】 截至2013年底,我国空冷火电机组总装机容量已经超过1亿kW,约占火电容量的18%。空冷机组煤耗远高于同容量湿冷机组,因此通过对空冷机组开展节能降耗工作,可提高我国整个电力工业的能效水平。然而当前节能降耗工作存在评价体系不健全,节能潜力点不明确的问题。因此,开展火电厂能效分析与评价研究,对指导节能减排工作具有重要意义。本文运甩单耗分析理论建立了直接空冷机组单耗分析模型,给出了附加单耗求解方法,计算了设计工况和实际运行工况各设备附加单耗,获得机组热力系统能耗的时空分布,分析了机组固有节能潜力和实时运行节能潜力。针对附加单耗不能很好地反映空冷凝汽器实时运行能效的问题,采用高斯混合模型对直接空冷凝汽器进行实时能效分析,得出空冷凝汽器实际工况下的能效衰退指数,并用于机组能效的实时评价。综合考虑经济性、可靠性、环保性要求,建立了空冷机组能效综合评价指标体系。基于证据理论建立了空冷机组能效综合评价模型,并给出了相应算法。以某600MW亚临界空冷机组为对象,对机组13个运行工况进行能效评价,根据附加单耗的空间分布以及能效评价结果,进行能效诊断与分析,并用于指导节能降耗。

【Abstract】 In the end of 2013, the installation of air-cooled thermal power plant capacity reached 100 million kW in China. The share over thermal power plant capacity reached to 18%.The capacity of air-cooled units is much higher than the unit of wet coal consumption, so energy-saving need carry out.Currently in China’s thermal power plants, integrated energy efficiency (EE) evaluation system is not in place, nor is the EE potential clearly identified. Hence it is of primary importance to raise the energy efficiency of China’s electric power industry by conducting EE improvement in thermal power plants.An unit consumption analysis model for direct air cooled power plant is established in the paper which calculate additional consumption of the design conditions and the actual operating conditions of each device and obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of energy consumption of each thermal system, and analyzes the inherent energy saving potential and real operational energy saving potential.Additional consumption can not reflect the real-time operational performance of the air-cooled condenser.So using a Gaussian mixture model evaluat real operational performance of the Direct Air Cooled Condenser,obtain the actual conditions’draw declining Performance index of air-cooled condenser which is used to evaluate the energy efficiency of the unit.In view high additional consumption of the present air condenser, judge the efficiency of direct air cooling condenser using mixture gauss algorithm (GMM), to obtain the condensing steam condenser actual state of health.A multi-hierarchical comprehensive evaluation system that considers economical efficiency, environmental protection and unit reliability is proposed for EE evaluation of the direct air cooled power plant.The air-cooled unit comprehensive evaluation model is established based on the evidence theory of energy efficiency, and the corresponding algorithms is proposed.A case study is conducted for a 600MW subcritical Air cooled unit to evaluate the energy efficiency of 13 kinds of operating conditions, the unit were evaluated, According to the spatial distribution of additional consumption and energy efficiency evaluation results, conduct diagnosis and analysis of the energy efficiency of and guide energy saving.

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