【作者】 李苗苗；

【导师】 黄翔；

【作者基本信息】 华中师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 旅游业发展的经济影响研究一直是国内外相关学者研究的焦点之一,本文关于该领域的研究,有助于丰富旅游业的经济影响理论,促使广大学者对于旅游业和当地经济发展投入更多关注；本文选取远安县为研究对象,有助于促进远安县这样的“经济大县”、“资源富县”,发展成为“旅游强县”,进而可供湖北省乃至全国各县域等小尺度范围的旅游业发展提供经验借鉴。本文基于旅游乘数理论、弹性理论、可持续发展理论,结合研究区旅游业发展概况,重点对远安县旅游业的经济影响进行定量评估：第一,研究2000-2012年旅游业对GDP的直接影响,根据旅游收入乘数效应理论,分析旅游业对GDP的间接影响,同时运用拟合预测的方法,对远安县未来五年中全县旅游收入进行预测；第二,基于需求收入弹性理论,研究远安县旅游业拉动社会需求的情况；第三,计算近年远安县旅游业就业人数,依据就业弹性理论以及柯布·道格拉斯生产函数,计算旅游就业弹性,并将其与三次产业及部分行业就业弹性相比较；第四,运用相关性分析法,计算出旅游业与农业、工业、交通运输邮电业、保险业、建筑业、批发贸易餐饮业的相关程度。最后,在以上分析的基础上,探讨了提高远安县旅游业对地方经济发展拉动作用的对策与建议。本文主要研究结论有以下几点：(1)远安县每1元的旅游收入,将导致GDP增长约20.373元；经预测,未来五年中,其对全县GDP的影响呈现加强趋势。(2)远安县旅游需求量对收入富有弹性,但近十年内,旅游需求收入弹性系数远低于2002年的8.44,2012年其弹性系数在近十三年内处于新高状态。建议深度挖掘旅游市场,树立远安品牌,完善旅游基础设施和服务设施,从而不断满足旅游者消费倾向,拉动社会需求。(3)远安县每1单位的旅游收入,将会带动0.403单位的就业增长,旅游就业弹性系数远高于三次产业平均就业弹性,但与第三产业中批发贸易餐饮业相比仍有很大差距。建议提高地区整体经济发展水平,增加旅游业投资；积极寻求区域合作,增加目的地游客接待量,扩大旅游消费,进而带动就业。(4)旅游业与农业、工业、交通运输邮电业、保险业、建筑业、批发贸易餐饮业的相关系数分别为0.993、0.988、0.986、0954、0.921、0.918。计算得出旅游业与工业的相关密切程度过高,不符合实际情况,随着远安县工业尤其是传统工业的进一步发展,其对区域生态环境的破坏作用也随之扩大,进而对远安县旅游业发展的负面影响也就愈加明显,因此建议相关部门实施新型工业化战略,减少其对生态环境的破坏,促进工业与旅游业的协调发展,同时应继续保持并加强旅游业与农业、交通运输邮电业、保险业等相关产业的联系。目前国内关于该领域的研究焦点多为省市域范围,研究对象选择较为片面,,就研究方法而言,多以定性分析为主,为此本文选取远安县为研究对象,可弥补该领域关于县域等小尺度范围的研究不足,同时采用定量分析方法,科学、客观的分析旅游业的经济影响,从而为地方政府制定旅游相关政策提供更为精确的参考依据。本文研究不足之处在于：因资料所限,本文选取了近十三年的数据进行研究,其研究的时间范围较小；旅游就业弹性及旅游业与其相关产业的相关程度计算方面,有待进一步完善；此外,旅游业对地方经济发展的影响内容广泛,本文有待进一步丰富。更多还原

【Abstract】 Research on the economic impact of tourism development has always been the focus of domestic and foreign scholars with related studying. This paper can enrich the tourism economic impact theory, let more scholars pay attention to this area; This paper select for Yuan’an for the study, will let the great and resource-rich county to be powerful in the tourism, then it can provide experience for other area in the development of the tourism.Organizing related theoretical basis such as the theory of elasticity, tourism multiplier theory in this field of research, then, on the basis of the present situation Of tourism in Yuan’an, the key task is the quantitative evaluation of the economic impact of tourism in Yuan’an. First, research the direct impact of tourism to GDP in 2000-2012, according to the formula of tourism multiplier effect, research on the indirect effects of GDP, at the same time, by using the method of fitting prediction of the tourism revenue forecast next five years; Second, based on the demand income elasticity theory, studies the case of Yuan’an pulling the social demand of tourism. Third, on the basis of employment elasticity and cobb Douglas production function theory, using regression analysis method, calculating the tourism employment elasticity coefficient, then compared with the three industries and some sectors of employment. Finally, using the correlation analysis method to calculate the correlation between the tourism and agriculture, industry, transportation and postal services, insurance, construction, wholesale trade catering industry. The main conclusions are as follows:First, every 1 yuan in tourism income, will lead to the GDP growth of about 20.373 yuan, at the same time, by using the method of fitting prediction of Yuan’an tourism revenue forecast next five years, forecasts the present a tendency of strengthening the influence of the county’s GDP.Second, the tourism demand for income is elastic, the elasticity coefficient is at a maximum in 2002, but the coefficients are less than that afterwards, then, the elasticity coefficient is in another new heights during nearly thirteen years.Third, whenever the Yuan’an 1 unit of tourist income, the employment growth will drive the 0.403 units, then compared with the three industries and some sectors of employment, it is concluded that tourism employment elasticity coefficient is higher than the average employment elasticity of the three industries, but compared to the third industry in the wholesale trade catering industry still has great gap.Finally, the correlation between the tourism and agriculture, industry, transportation and postal services, insurance, construction, wholesale trade catering industry is 0.993, 0.988,0.986,0954,0.921,0.918. It is concluded that the tourism and wholesale trade catering industry have the lowest relationship, which need to reinforce the relationship between the tourism and it. Then the industry need to change the mode of production.At present, the focus of the research in the field is province. In terms of the method, many scholars choose the qualitative analysis. This paper selects for Yuan’an for the study, can make up the deficiency in the study of little area, and it can provide a more precise reference for the local government to formulate policies.The lack of the research are showed as follows:It can reflect the economic impact of tourism in Yuan’an more accurately if can expand the scope of its time; still need to perfect the calculation method in the employment elasticity of tourism and industrial linkage; In terms of the purposes, this paper need to perfect the contents.更多还原