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我国南海超深水海域三用工作船技术经济论证

Technical and Economic Evaluation of Ultra-deep Water AHTS for South China Sea

【作者】 张宁

【导师】 谢新连;

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 , 交通运输规划与管理, 2015, 硕士

【摘要】 我国南海海域面积宽广、油气资源丰富,且70%以上的油气资源集中在水深300米甚至1500米以上的超深水海域中。伴随着中国海洋石油向深水挺进,三用工作船作为能为钻井平台提供多项服务的船型之一也必须能够适应深水海域需要。我国船东运营管理的能够服务1500米以上深水海域的三用工作船数量不足,南海海域深水三用工作船市场远未饱和,开发建造该类船舶具存良好的市场和发展前景。本文首先介绍了海洋油气资源的开发历史、海洋工程支持船的发展历程以及三用工作船的特点,并着重分析了我国南海海域油气资源开发现状以及超深水海域三用工作船供需情况,尤其是能够服务于超深水海域三用工作船的缺口情况。论文核心部分为三用工作船技术经济论证。本文在参照现有25000马力以上深水三用工作船技术参数的基础上,运用网格法初步拟定了12个备选船型方案,并运用经验公式对设立的船型方案进行技术参数检验;同时,根据预先选定的营运指标和财务指标判断船型方案是否具有投资价值,进行初步筛选,淘汰技术及经济上不可行的船型方案,并根据不同单一指标对方案进行了比选。考虑到船型技术方案优选是一个多目标决策问题,单纯从某一项指标来判断方案优劣易导致评价结果的科学性欠佳,因此,在进行方案优选时应采用科学的决策方法。本文介绍了因子分析法在船型论证中的可行性,运用因子分析法并借助SPSS统计软件对筛选出的8个三用工作船船型方案进行综合评定,得出技术上可行、经济上合理的超深水海域三用工作船最优方案,得出载重吨5700吨、航速17.5节的船型方案是8个可行方案中最优船型的论证结果。本文提出的三用工作船船型论证方法对致力于参与超深水海域三用工作船市场的企业具有一定的参考意义。

【Abstract】 Wide area of the South China Sea, rich in oil and gas resources, while most of them Concentrated at a depth of 300 meters over 1500 meters deep waters even more. Along with the Development strategy of China Offshore Oil to deepwater, more advanced AHTS vessel which can work in the deep water are needed. However, the number of AHTS owned by shipowner of China is very limited, especially in the. Ships market is far from saturated, thus the investment for this field has a good market and development prospects. This paper describes the development history, marine engineering support for offshore oil as well as gas resources in the development process of the boat. Besides, analyze the gap of high-power AHTS vessels in China South China Sea.The core part of the paper is the technical and economic evaluation of AHTS vessel Programs. According to parameters of the existing AHTS vessel whose host power is higher than 25000 horsepower, we formulate 12 alternatives on the basis of grid method. In order to judge the feasibility of the alternatives, I expanded technical inspection according to the empirical formula. Meanwhile, the paper select financial and operational index, such as NPV(Net present value), IRR(Internal Rate of Return), to judge whether the program has investment value. After the preliminary screening,8 feasible programs are picked out and sequenced. Then make comparison of the 8 alternatives depend on the single indicator. However, the result of the selection may be biased for the selection of ship programs is issue of Multi-objective decision, which variable index should be taken into account during the selection. Thus, scientific approach to decision making should be introduced. This article describes the feasibility of Factor analysis in the selection of ship programs. For the purpose of simplifying the calculation process, I use the SPSS to make comprehensive assessment for the 8 feasible alternatives picked out before. Then the best program can be selected. In terms of this paper, the following program is excellent. Deadweight:5700t, Speed:17.5kn. This result coincide with the previous approximately.The method of AHTS vessel programs selection proposed in the paper is effective, which can provide reference for the enterprises who committed to participating the ultra deep-water AHTS vessel market.

  • 【分类号】U674.2
  • 【被引频次】6
  • 【下载频次】239
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