【作者】 胡敏；

【导师】 黄顺武；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 产业经济学， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 在全球经济一体化和国际分工合作的背景下，货币错配是发展中国家普遍面临的问题。作为新兴市场经济体的中国必然存在着货币错配问题。而严重的货币错配会给经济的持续稳定发展带来巨大的挑战。本文在现有的研究基础上主要通过使用Goldenstein和Turner构建的实际货币错配指标（AECM）测量了我国1994年到2010年我国的货币错配程度，发现我国货币错配程度总体上呈上升趋势。受全球金融环境影响，我国货币错配在2007年达到顶峰，在此之后我国货币错配一直保持高位运行。我国债权型货币错配风险表现为人民币的升值导致外汇资产净值的缩水。在测量出我国货币错配程度后，把我国的货币错配程度与金砖五国中其他四国进行对比，得出我国货币错配的自身特征。通过多元线性回归和协整检验发现经济规模、外汇储备、金融深化程度、财政可维持力、开放程度和汇率制度影响我国货币错配程度。其中经济规模、金融深化程度、开放程度和通货膨胀与货币错配负相关，外汇储备、财政可维持力和汇率制度与货币错配正相关。外汇储备、经济规模和汇率制度与货币错配之间存在长期稳定的关系，且它们都是货币错配的格兰杰原因。我国巨额外汇储备加剧了货币错配，同时伴随着汇率的浮动，外汇储备遭受损失。最后针对我国当前货币错配问题，结合我国实际情况提出了相应的一些控制对策和建议，但是解决货币错配问题的最终道路还是走人民币国际化道路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Accompany with economy globalization and international division of labor, currencymismatch is common problem in developing countries. As an emerging market economy, Chinaalso face currency mismatch. Serious currency mismatch will bring huge challenges to steadyeconomy. In this paper, based on existing research, I utilize the AECM index constructed byGoldenstein and Turner to measure the Chinese currency mismatch from1994to2010, and findthat the degree of currency mismatch is on a rise. Affected by the global financial environment,China’s currency mismatch peaked in2007and remained high since then. The risk of debt currencymismatch was the shrink of net foreign exchange asset.After measuring the currency mismatch, the article compares with the other four countries inBRICS to draw the features of currency mismatch in China. Using multiple linear regression andcointegration test, the article concludes influence degree of economy scale, foreign exchangereserves, financial deepening, financial maintain strength, openness and exchange rate forcurrency mismatch through empirical studies. Economy scale, financial deepening, openness andinflation have negative relationship with currency mismatches, while foreign exchange reserves,financial maintain strength and exchange rate have the opposite. There is a long-term stablerelationship among economy scale, foreign exchange reserves, exchange rate and currencymismatch, and they are also Granger reason of currency mismatch. Chinese huge foreignexchange reserves exacerbate the currency mismatch. When exchange rate fluctuates, foreignexchange reserves will suffer.Finally, the article puts forward pertinent control measures and suggestions to relieve currentcurrency mismatch which can be only solved by RMB internationalization to solve the problem.更多还原