【作者】 刘杨；

【导师】 樊治平；

【作者基本信息】 东北大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 随着项目所涉及的领域和范围越来越广,面临的风险日益复杂,项目风险管理的要求也越来越高。项目风险管理已成为推动社会经济科学发展,确保项目成功的关键因素和重要支撑。对项目风险应对策略选择的理论方法的研究一直是风险管理的核心问题,探讨如何进行项目风险应对策略的选择能够帮助企业更好的进行项目风险管理,对项目的成败有着重要的意义。本文从项目风险管理的相关概念分析入手,围绕如何考虑两个风险情形下的项目风险应对策略选择问题展开研究。首先,从理论上分析研究了进行项目风险应对策略选择的要素；然后给出一种考虑两个风险情形的项目风险对应策略选择方法；最后给出了项目风险应对策略选择的实例分析,对所提出方法的应用进行了说明。本文主要完成了以下三方面的研究工作：(1)项目风险管理相关概念的界定。任何项目管理的根本任务都是对因不确定性而引起的项目风险进行管理。因此,本文首先明确了项目风险,项目风险识别,项目风险评估,项目风险应对,项目风险控制等相关重要概念。(2)考虑两个风险情形的项目风险应对策略选择方法。通过风险识别和风险评估,确定风险之间的关系,找出减小风险发生的可能性和/或降低风险发生的损失的途径,并通过优化决策模型找到将风险后果控制在可接受的水平的最优决策方案。(3)实例分析。通过A公司厂房扩建项目的风险应对策略选择的实例,对考虑两个风险情形的项目风险应对策略选择方法的运算过程进行说明,验证本文提出的方法的有效性。除此之外,本文对项目风险应对策略选择的相关文献进行了综述,在论文最后,总结了本主的主要研究成果、贡献、及局限性以及需要进一步开展的工作。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the project involving the fields more widely, the risks of project gets more complex and level of risk management is increasingly higher. Project risk management has become the key factor and important support to promote science, society and economic development and ensure the success of the project. Research on theory and method how to select project risk strategies has been the core question of risk management. Discussing how.to select project risk strategies which can help the enterprises control the project better has a great significance.From the concept analysis of project risk management, this article research on the strategies selection focusing on how to consider two risk situations. The purpose of the research and significance lies in:first, studying project risk strategies selection elements theoretically; then giving an approach to strategy selection for project risk control considering two risk situations; finally providing a case study on strategy selection for project risk control to illustrate the application of proposed method.This paper mainly completed the following three aspects research works as follows:(1) Concepts about project risk management are analyzed and defined. The basic task of any project management is caused by the uncertainty of project management project risks. Therefore, this article first introduces the meaning and type project risk, project risk identification, project risk assessment and project risk control and related key concepts. This article first introduces the meaning and type of project risk, the concepts of project risk identification, project risk assessment and project risk control which are the foundation for further research.(2) Proposing an approach to strategy selection for project risk control considering two risk situations. Through the risk identification, risk assessment to determine the interacted relationship between two risks, through the risk identification, risk estimate, risk assessment to obain the interaction relationship between two risks, to find the methods to reduce risk of damage occurred and giving the risk decision model.(3) A case about strategy selection for project risk control is analyzed. A case about strategy selection for project risk control of A company’s plant expansion is put forward to describe the calculating process of the methods.Besides,literatures related to project risk management are viewed and appraised.By the end of this thesis,the main research results and conclusions,major contribution and limitations and requiring work for further research are summarized.更多还原