【作者】 王辉；

【导师】 朱仲元；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 ， 水利工程， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 随着全球气候变暖,年代际尺度信号愈来愈明显。极端天气事件年代际尺度气候变化已成为联合国政府间气候变化问题专门委员会(IPCC)第五次报告(AR5)的重要内容之一。极端天气事件是一个较复杂的系统,包括极端降水事件、极端气温事件等灾难性气候事件,已成为当今学术界、国际社会普遍关注的热点问题。极端天气事件的发展、演变与全球区域气候有着密切的关系,极端天气事件频发冲击下的全球气候变化问题,仅就中国而言,占全部自然灾害的70%以上。目前,内蒙古地区极端天气指数受自然、人为的影响已有相关研究,但就极端天气事件与区域气候的相关性研究较少。因此,本文运用格兰杰因果性检验等方法来探讨极端气温和极端降水事件与区域气候变化的相关关系。研究结果表明：1.极端指数在时间上表现为非均一性的变化趋势；极端高温、夏日日数以及极端低温空间分布西高东低,其趋势变化均有不同程度增大,而结冰日数、霜冻日数、极端强降水、年一日最大降水空间分布西低东高,趋势变化减小2.年平均降水及其变化趋势与极端强降水分布较一致,年平均气温与极端高温分布较一致。极端高温、夏日日数、极端低温、结冰日数、霜冻日数、年一日最大降水与极端强降水阈值的重现期分布均一致性良好。3.年降水、极端强降水、年一日最大降水、极端降水频数、霜冻日数、年平均气温与夏日日数均呈负相关但滞后期不同,年降水滞后4年,极端强降水、极端强降水频数和年平均气温均滞后3年,霜冻日数滞后2年,年一日最大降水滞后1年。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the global warming, the inter-decadal signal becomes much more obvious. Extreme climate events and inter-decadal signal climate change have become one of the most important contents of IPCC AR5. The extreme climate event, a quite complicated system, including disastrous climate events, like extreme rainfall event, extreme climate event and etc. have become hot-spot issues in nowadays academe and international society. The development and evolvement of the extreme climate events are well-connected with the global regional climate. The frequency of extreme climate events which under the impact of global climate change, accounted for more than 70% of natural disasters just in China.So far, the extreme climate of Inner Mongolia that was influenced by nature and human being has been researched, while there were little about the regional climate and the extreme climate. Therefore, by using Causality test of Granger and the other methods, this paper is going to discuss the correlativity between the extreme temperature and extreme rainfall event, and the regional climate change. The following shows the result of my research:1. In terms of time, the index of Inner Mongolian extreme climate shows an inhomogeneous variation tendency; while in space, the law of variation is quite obvious.2. From the angle of correlativity, the Inner Mongolian annual precipitation is the reason of the SU with the lag phase of four years (p<0.01), presents as a negative correlation; the R95P is the lag phase of three years of the SU which also presents as a negative correlation; the RX1D is the lag phase of one years of the SU (p<0.01), presenting a negative correlation; the annual average temperature is the reason of the SU whose lag phase is three years and the reason of the FD with the lag phase of one year, and the significance of both is over 0.01, in which the SU passes the test of dependency.3. The SU is the reason of TXID and FD whose both lag phase is one year (p>0.01), and all passes the test of dependency; FD is the reason of SU’s lag phase of two years (p>0.01), with the passing of the test of dependency.更多还原