低影响开发技术应用的风险因素分析及对策

【作者】 李涛；

【导师】 刘建；

【作者基本信息】 深圳大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 随着科技的进步、社会的发展,高新的技术不断的出现,并在人们的日常生活中逐渐推广和应用,发挥着越来越重要的作用。相对于其他项目而言,高新技术应用所面临的风险因素更多,属于高风险的活动。这些风险因素对高新技术的推广和应用产生了十分不利的影响。低影响开发技术(Low Impact Development,LID)作为能够有效解决我国愈来愈普遍和严重的城市内涝和面源污染问题的新技术和新方法,已经引起了业内外的广泛关注。LID技术属于高新技术,该技术引入国内时间较短,人们认知度较低,广大的工程设计人员、施工人员、维护人员等专业技能有所欠缺,与许多高新技术一样该技术在实际应用中存在的风险较多。本文针对低影响开发技术在实践项目应用中,依据风险管理的理论,对低影响开发技术的应用进行风险研究。本文遵循风险管理研究的一般步骤,并充分结合LID技术的实际应用特点,对其在应用过程中可能存在的风险进行充分识别,并对研究结果提出合理的应对策略。本文采用了多种分析手段对LID技术项目建设过程中应用风险进行分析研究,通过定量模型分析了存在风险的优先级别,并根据实践案例研究对存在的风险提出了合理的应对策略,期望能为LID技术项目建设应用过程中的风险管理提供一定的经验。本文的主要内容包括以下几点:(1)概述了LID技术的应用和研究现状,以及风险研究对该技术的重要性。(2)对风险、风险管理的相关理论及发展进行介绍,为下一步研究的进行做准备。(3)通过实际工程现场调研、专家访谈法、头脑风暴法、德尔菲法等方法进行LID技术项目建设应用过程中存在的风险识别和评价,选取了目前LID技术项目建设应用中的相对较为重要的10条风险,然后利用层次分析法对这些风险进行优先级排序。(4)最后,按照风险的优先级别对各个风险进行事前处置和事后处置对策两方面提出风险处理意见,强调风险监控的必要性,并指出风险管理是一个持续的过程,在风险监控的过程中,确定风险变化,不断对风险进行管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 Advancements in science and technology, and social developments have facilitated the high and new technology to be applied and promoted in daily life, and been playing an increasing significant role. Compared with other events, high-tech belongs to high-risk activities with more risk factors, which have caused serious effects on the promotion and application of high-tech.The Low Impact Development technology(LID), which has been treated as a new technology and methods to effectively solve the more and more common and serious problem of urban waterlogging in our country, has caused widespread attention outside the industry. LID was recently introduced in china and people have low awareness of it, in addition, most design personnel, construction personnel and maintenance personnel lack expertise in it. Like many other high technologies, the practical application of LID will face many risks. According to the theory of risk management, this paper aimed at the study of the application of LID and its risks. Following the general steps of risk management research and combining with the characteristics of the practical application of LID, we want to identify the possible risks in its application and put forward a reasonable counter-measure.With a variety of analysis methods, we have analyzed the priority of risk through the quantitative model and put forward a reasonable coping strategy based on the practical case study, hoping to provide a certain amount of experience in the risk management during the application of LID technology. The main content of the paper is as follows:(1)Summarize the application and research status of LID technology, and the importance of risk research to the technology.(2)Introduce the relative theory of risk and risk management for the preparation of next step.(3)Through the methods which include actual project site investigation, expert interview, brainstorming, Delphi and so on to identify and evaluate the risks that exist in the application of LID technology. Ten relatively important risks have been selected and then prioritize them using analytic hierarchy process.(4)Finally, put forward opinions on the disposal counter-measure before and after the event of each risk according to the priority level of risk, emphasize the necessity of risk monitoring, point risk management as a continuous process, ensure the change of risks to continuously supervise and control them during risk risk monitoring.更多还原