【作者】 张敏；

【导师】 邓小华；

【作者基本信息】 安徽大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2015， 硕士

【副题名】以安徽省为例

【摘要】 随着经济全球化、贸易一体化的进程不断加快,任何一个国家或地区的对外贸易都会影响到世界经济的发展。自亚当·斯密起,经济学家们就一直努力发展和完善各种贸易理论,他们从对外贸易促进国际分工,进而提高劳动生产率、节约成本的角度去解释国际贸易为什么会发生、如何发生及贸易利益的获得结果等问题,其研究目的不仅为了解释国际贸易发生的事实,更重要的意义在于指导各国或地区参与国际贸易的实践,通过对外贸易增加本国或地区的财富。对外贸易与经济增长的关系至今尚无定论,但国内外大多数学者都支持对外贸易促进经济增长的观点。就中国而言,自改革开放以来,对外贸易总额与经济增长保持同步上升的趋势,引起了国内外经济学家的关注,并对我国的对外贸易与经济增长关系做了大量的实证研究,但目前关于国内各个省份和地区的对外贸易与经济增长关系尚未深入研究。基于此,本文以安徽省为研究对象,对其进出口贸易与经济增长的发展现状进行了分析,并运用实证检验分析二者之间的因果关系及相互促进关系,最后有针对性的提出一些促进安徽省对外贸易发展及经济增长的政策建议。本文分为五个部分。第一章绪论,主要叙述了本文的研究背景及意义、国内外研究综述、研究方法与内容、创新与不足之处；第二章理论基础部分,首先介绍了对外贸易、经济增长相关概念,其次阐述了对外贸易与经济增长关系的三种观点,最后论述了对外贸易对经济增长产生促进作用的机制及条件；第三章现状分析,根据收集的安徽省经济增长和进出口贸易额数据分别从外贸依存度、相关系数指标角度进行分析,并附图表以便更直观地观察；第四章实证分析,是文章的核心部分,通过对安徽省1992-2013年的统计数据构建VAR模型,并运用一系列实证分析方法：ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解,研究了安徽省对外贸易与经济增长之间长期的均衡关系以及短期的动态变化规律。实证检验表明：(1)从Johansen协整检验结果看,安徽省对外贸易与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系；(2) Granger因果关系检验得出,安徽省出口贸易与经济增长存在单向的因果关系,即出口贸易是安徽省经济增长的原因,但经济增长不是出口贸易的原因。而进口贸易与经济增长之间不存在因果关系；(3)从脉冲响应函数的分析来看,出口贸易对安徽省经济增长起促进作用,而进口贸易对安徽省经济增长促进作用微弱甚至为负；(4)从方差分解的结果也可以看出,出口贸易对安徽省经济增长贡献率大,而进口贸易对安徽省经济增长贡献率几乎为零；第五章结论与政策建议,根据以上的研究分析,提出有利于安徽省进出口贸易与经济发展的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the process of economic globalization and trade integration accelerating, any country or region’s foreign trade will affect the development of the world economy. Since Adam Smith, economists having been trying to develop and perfect all kinds of trade theory, they from the point of foreign trade promoting international division, thereby increasing labor productivity and saving cost to explain that why the international trade occurred, how it happened and the access to trade benefits. The purpose of the study is not only to explain the fact that international trade occurred, the more important is to guide the practice of countries or regions to participate in international trade, increase national or regional wealth through foreign trade.The relationship between foreign trade and economic growth has not been determined, however, most scholars have the point of view that foreign trade promote economic growth. For China, since the reform and opening up, the total amount of foreign trade keep pace with the economic rise, which attracted domestic and foreign economists’ concern, and they have done a lot of research on the relationship of foreign trade and economic growth. But at present, the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth of the various provinces or regions have not yet been studied. Based on this, this paper takes Anhui Province as the research object, analyzes the current development situation of the import and export trade and economic growth, and with the empirical analysis of the causal relationship between foreign trade and economic growth. Finally, targeted to make some policy recommendations to promote the development of Anhui Province Foreign Trade and Economic Growth.This paper is divided into five parts. Chapter I the introduction, mainly introduces the background and significance, the literature review of related research at home and abroad, research methods and content, innovation and deficiencies. Chapter II is the theoretical basis part, firstly introduces the related concepts of foreign trade and economic growth, secondly elaborates the three viewpoints of foreign trade and economic growth, and finally discusses the mechanism and conditions of foreign trade affect economic growth. Chapter III describes the current situation, based on the collection data of the Anhui province economic growth and import and export trade, from the dependence on foreign trade, correlation coefficient analysis the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, and the accompanying chart to observe more directly. Chapter IV the empirical analysis, is the core part of this paper, by constructing a VAR model of the statistical data of Anhui province in 1992-2013, and using a series of empirical analysis methods:ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition to study the long-term equilibrium relationship and the short-term dynamic changes between foreign trade and economic growth in Anhui province. The empirical test shows that:(1) from the Johansen cointegration test results, there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between foreign trade and economic growth; (2) Granger causality test shows that, there is one-way causal relationship between export trade and economic growth, the export trade is the cause of economic growth, but economic growth is not the cause of export trade, and there is no causal relationship between import trade and economic growth; (3) from the analysis of impulse response function, the export trade promotes economic growth, but the import trade have a weak or even negative effect on the economic growth; (4) what can also be seen from the results of variance decomposition is that the export trade have a big contribution on economic growth, while the contribution of import to Anhui province economic growth is almost zero; Part V based on the above analysis, put forward some policy recommendations which are beneficial for foreign trade and economic development in Anhui province更多还原