【作者】 王峰；

【导师】 季如进； 张威；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 项目管理（专业学位）， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 当前，我国房地产业调控政策频出，市场环境复杂，项目开发的不确定因素越来越多,房地产业之间的竞争越来越激烈，全过程、全方面、全员参与的风险管理则是有效的应对方法。小区市政管线是指住宅小区红线内地下管线，是小区配套设施的重要组成部分，虽然其投资比例较小，但是对房地产项目开发的各个阶段都有重要的影响。本论文选取小区市政管线中对项目开发影响最大的供水、供电、供气管线进行研究，简述国内近三十年来，小区市政管线的建设、管理模式以及其中所存在的问题，通过对相关法律法规和现行管线管理模式的分析，指出二者之间的矛盾所带来的产权困境是风险产生的主要根源。本文将小区市政管线工程看成独立的项目，按项目的基本生命周期理论，结合小区市政管线工程的特点，构建阶段模型，将小区市政管线工程分为报装、合同、施工、验收四个阶段。采用专家访谈法，选取有丰富经验的房地产开发管理人员进行访谈；采用案例分析法，选取五个案例，对其中较为典型的风险因素进行分析；通过对报装阶段报装流程的分析，合同阶段信息不对称、分包商索赔的博弈分析，施工阶段施工环境、质量问题的分析，验收阶段验收流程的分析，总结出风险成因。最后综合以上三种方法，得出风险识别清单。在风险的评估上，根据小区市政管线的风险特点，对风险发生概率与损害后果进行分级，构建风险等级矩阵并进行风险排序。根据风险的多维特性，从不可察觉性、不可控性、不可逆转性、影响持续时间、级联影响五个角度构建评价模型，对分级后的风险二次过滤，弥补了传统方法的不足，并为风险的正确应对提供了依据。介绍风险应对的常用方法，根据风险应对的过程和要点，建立风险应对表。结合风险动态管理理论，指出小区市政管线建设中风险的“迁移效应”。介绍小区市政管线风险监控的重点和常用监控方法。在御翠尚府小区市政管线建设中，成立风险管理小组，依据风险管理流程和理论，结合项目特点，开展风险管理，对风险管理理论进行实证研究并总结。更多还原

【Abstract】 The uncertainties of the real estate project development have been increasingbecause of the frequent government control policies and the complex marketenvironment. The competition between real estate is increasingly fierce.The effectiveway to deal with these uncertainties is to fully execute risk management from all aspectsof the project through the whole process.The district municipal pipeline is the pipeline network under the residential redmainland, which is an important part of community facilities. Although its investment isnot large, the municipal pipeline has essential effect at every step of real estate project.In this thesis, the pipeline for water, electricity and gas in municipal pipeline which havegreat impact on projects were studied. The construction and managemen mode of thedistrict municipal pipeling in the past thirty years is discussed, proplems are pointed out.By analyzing the relevant laws and regulations and the current pipeline managementpattern, the difficulties arising from the contradiction between property rights werepointed out, the predicament of property right is the main origin of risk.The project of district municipal pipeline is considered as an independent project inthis study. According to the life cycle theory and the characteristics of district municipalpipeline, four step models were built, which are loading, contract, construction andclosing. By interviewing experts from the real estate project development managementusing expert interview the risk factors were outlined. Based on five cases, risk analyzingwas executed. Through the analysis of loading process during the loading step, unfitinformation and subcontractor claims during the contract step, construction environmentproblem and quality problem during the construction step and the acceptance processduring the closing step. Finally, according to the above three methods, risk identificationlist was obtained.Risk estimation was performed by grading the probability and consequence,building risk level matrix and sequence all the risks. According to the variety of risk therisk estimation models were built from five aspects which are non-detectable,non-controllable, irreversible, impact duration, cascading effect. The built model canperform secondary filtration after grading the risks, make up for the deficiencies of the traditional methods and support the correct response for the risk.Then the risk "migration effect" during the construction of municipal pipelines wasstudied based on the dynamic risk management theory. And the district municipalpipeline risk monitoring priorities and common monitoring method were introduced.The company set up a risk management team. On the basis of risk managementknowledge, the risk management study is verified in the construction of YuCuiShangFudistrict municipal pipeline.更多还原