【作者】 范朝帅；

【导师】 段永红；

【作者基本信息】 山西农业大学 ， 农业资源利用（专业学位）， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 土地利用与土地覆被变化是研究全球土地利用变化的一个重要的领域,其中,土地利用变化驱动力研究是该研究的重点之一。社会发展过程中,由于受自然因素、社会人文因素和经济因素的影响,不同地区土地利用结构及土地资源的质量在不断发生变化,并对地区环境、生态和全球环境产生影响。所以,研究分析区域土地利用变化过程、规律以及驱动因素,可为其合理开发利用土地资源以及改善生态环境提供科学依据。本文选择沁水县作为研究对象,研究影响土地利用变化的驱动力因素,旨在科学地找出影响土地利用变化的主要驱动力,为以后合理利用土地提供科学依据。本文以2002年到2011年的土地调查数据为基础,分析了沁水县的土地利用现状,以及土地利用数量与结构的变化,且主要研究了土地利用变化的幅度和土地利用变化的速度,结果表明沁水县从2002年到2011年十年间耕地、林地、居民及工矿用地、交通运输用地和水利设施用地的占用面积分别增加976、3480、780、631、1408公顷,增幅分别为0.31%、0.29%、1.72%、11.49%和50.34%。园地、牧草地和其它农用地所占面积分别减少1370、23590、1630公顷,减幅分别为4.78%、9.33%和1.96%。可见,沁水县的交通运输用地占用面积增幅最大,牧草地占用面积减幅最大,耕地、林地和其它农用地占用面积基本保持不变。在此基础上,采用定性分析和定量分析对影响土地利用变化驱动因子进行研究,定性分析主要包括自然和社会经济因素,自然因素包括气候、土壤和水文等,社会经济因素包括人口增长、第一产业、第二产业、人均收入等。在定量分析方面主要采用了层次分析法和灰色关联分析,灰色关联分析通过分别计算各类用地与各驱动因子之间的关联度,从而确定影响土地利用变化的主要因素,用层次分析法来确定影响沁水县土地利用变化的主要驱动因子。研究表明沁水县土地利用变化的主要驱动因子是全县人口、农业机械总动力、房屋竣工面积、社会消费品零售和第一产业。农用地与全县人口总数、农业机械装备水平和粮食总产量关系密切；水利设施用地与国家投资和工业的发展密切相关；未利用土地随着机械化程度的提高,通过土地整治后用于粮食生产,提高了粮食的产量,满足了越来越多的人口增加的需要。最后,运用多元线性回归建立了各类用地需求预测的模型。针对沁水县土地利用结构不合理,未利用地占得比例太大,建设用地扩张速度过快,土地供需矛盾比较明显的问题,提出了加强土地利用规划管理,优化土地利用结构,对土地的利用潜力的开发和加大对土地的科技投入等建议和措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land Use and Land Cover Change is an important field of the global change research, and the driving force of land-use change research is one of the most important roles of the research.In the process of social development,due to natural factors and social and humanity factors and the economic factors,the Land use structure and the quality of land resources of different regions is changing, meanwhile the changes of the regional environment, ecological balance and global environment also are affected. So the study of the changing process, laws and driving factors of the Land use, is not only the important basis for the ecological environment and rational development of land resources, but also for the environment and ecological balance.The paper uses Qinshui country as research area and researches the key driving force of Qinshui country Land Use and Land Cover Change, it scientifically find outs the main driving force which affects the changing land use. And it provides a scientific basis for its rational development, utilization of land resources.This paper, which is based on the data from2002to2011of Qinshui country land use, presents the land use and the number and structure change of land use, and mainly studies the scale and speed of land use. It gets that the occupied area of the cultivated land, woodland, urban and industrial land, transportation land and water facilities increased976,3480,780,631,1408hectares, increasing by0.31%,0.29%,1.72%,11.49%and50.34%. The garden, grassland and other land area decreased1370,23590,1630hectares, decreasing by4.78%,9.33%and1.96%. In summary, the largest increased occupied area at Qinshui County was the transportation land, and the grassland area occupied the largest reduction. Cultivated land, forest land and other agricultural land occupation remained basically unchanged.Based on the former, anglicizing the driving forces, it mainly uses qualitative analysis and quantitative to analysis the driving forces. The change of land use not only is restricted by nature factors such as climate, soil, hydrological and so on, but also is affected by social and economic factors such as population growth, the first industry, the second industry and so on. In the paper, quantitative analysis includes analytic hierarchy process and grey correlation analysis, grey correlation analysis is through the computed correlation between the driving factors and various types of land, to determine the main factors affecting land use change. Analytic hierarchy process determines the main driving factors of land use change.Research shows that the county’s population is the main driving factors of the QinShui country land change. The relationship is close among agricultural land, the county’s population, total power of agricultural machinery and the total grain output. Water facilities, the state investment and industry are closely related, unused land as rising the level of mechanization is developed, using for improving food production, and meet the needs of the growing population.Finally, establishing multi linear regression model predicts future different lands as for the structure of the Qinshui county land use is not rational, unused land is too large, the construction land is not intensive, and the contradiction between land supply and demand is more serious problem. So some suggestion are raised, such as strengthening the management of land use planning, optimizing the structure of land use, developing the land use potential and increasing investment in science and technology.更多还原